Republic

“Here’s where things get interesting.”

Pete Baker on May 25, 2007, 9:31 pm

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Over at CommentisFree Fintan O’Toole [no relation – Ed] looks at the likely contenders for a coalition government should Fianna Fáil not achieve the necessary 84 seats.. a possibility he doesn’t entirely rule out. Nevertheless, the easiest option for Fianna Fáil may be an alliance with the Greens. As a smaller party than Labour, the Greens would get fewer cabinet seats. And their agenda, though radical in its own way, might be narrow enough to be contained within one area …

Bertie: Pragmatic (nay, paradoxical) hero of the hour..

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 9:17 pm

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Splintered Sunrise is clearly not happy with the results that are unfolding… but nevertheless manages to sing his bitter peon to some effect… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Newstalk: Liz O’Donnell loses her seat…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 9:11 pm

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Via Irishelection.com’s Twitter service. They are also saying that McDowell will lose his seat to the Green’s John Gormley!! Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Harney to keep her seat?

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 8:13 pm

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Just had a text from Irishelection.com suggesting that Mary Harney will retain her seat. Noel Grealish looks safeish too. But the Tanaiste, Michael McDowell, is likely to have to wait until the end of proceedings to see whether or not he has a seat to go back to, never mind the hotseat at the Ministry of Justice. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media …

FF onward march, FG following, the rest nowhere…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 7:09 pm

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FG Mairead McGuinness concedes in Louth… so no second seat there for Fine Gael… Also Harry is calling Meath East two FF, which I’m guessing would see the previously unfancied Tommy Byrne oust the long term favorite Dominic Hannigan. Harry with the rest of his 1.30 remarks: Fine Gael have had a good election and will make gains of something in the order of 15 seats. They have had a good election, but not as good as their main rivals. …

“Fianna Fail cannot outlast the death of the sun” shocker…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 6:39 pm

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Political Thicko’s ‘reasons to be cheerful’… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Sean Crowe concedes defeat…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 6:37 pm

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First victim of the Sinn Fein no show… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

First (elective) seat to Fianna Fail…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 6:30 pm

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Simon has the detail… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

RTE: meltdown for the independents?

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 6:20 pm

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Informal predictions on RTE make for some interesting reading: FF 79; FG 50; Lab 19; Green 6; SF 5; Ind 4. IIRC, that’s down ten seats!! Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Election blog links…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 5:16 pm

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Before the off Mairtin muses on the possibility of Sinn Fein eclipsing Labour on (what’s left of) the left. Simon at Ireland’s hardest working blog, Irishelection.com on the story so far. Check out their mysay site for the latest pod reports from around the country. If you have something to add, wherever you are, join in! Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and …

Left and right getting crunched under weight of big battalions?

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 4:59 pm

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World by Storm is expressing what a few people that Slugger has spoken also feel: that the left (and the right) is getting crunched in favour of the ‘big battalions’ (ie Fianna Fail and Fine Gael), in a way that few in the media seems to have anticipated. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across …

PDs in big, big trouble…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 4:33 pm

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Looks like some bad news for Sinn Fein, but their inveterate rivals on the right could be no more after this dust up. Mary HarneyThe Irish Times reports: …with 74 per cent of the boxes opened, PD leader Michael McDowell is in serious trouble and looks like being in a dog fight with Green Party chairman John Gormley for the last seat. In Laois-Offaly, PD president Tom Parlon is in serious difficulty, and with more than 70 per cent of …

Sinn Fein’s bumpy road in Dublin…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 3:57 pm

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Looks like MaryLou could struggle in Dublin Central: Bertie Ahern 1 3/4 quota Mary Lou 7.1% Labour 15% Tony Georgry 13% Pascal Donohoe 10%. Sean Crowe and Larry O’Toole may struggle to keep in the game: Dub nth east – FF 39% FG 21% LAB 15% SF 15%; and Dub sth wst – FF 38% FG 18% LAB 21% SF 16. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics …

Following the results…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 3:17 pm

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With Paddy Power paying out on Bertie as Taoiseach, this race is not looking anywhere near as tight as it promised. “Five more years”, says Harry. Irishelection.com and Politics.ie have rolling reports on first tallies. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Turn out rises in middle class areas…

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 2:24 pm

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If there has been an underperformance on the part of Sinn Fein, it may largely be connected with a rise in turn out in areas outside the working class areas where they’ve built their core support. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

RTE Exit poll: Fianna Fail to get home and dry?

on May 25, 2007, 12:09 pm

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If the RTE exit poll is to be believed the main government party is likely to stay in position, though it it depends on how badly marked the PDs are by Fine Gael’s modest progress, whether they will have to swap partners. Interestingly, Sinn Fein and the Greens are at the lower end of heir recent poll readings. There is an error margin of about 2% per cent on these figures. Fianna Fáil is on 41.6% – marginally above what …

Voting towards another happy consensus..?

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2007, 12:14 am

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Again in that Doughty Street discussion one thing became clear was the huge inertia that exists within the Republic’s political system. Hopes of political renewal are often quickly dashed when, as Fintan O’Toole notes in his CiF blog this evening, the election result gives into weeks of internal horsetrading, and out comes an amalgam of government parties who’s capacity to make clear executive decisions are further curtailed by the preordained priorities of the social partners. Consensus government at its very …

Register cleanup prevents voters from voting…

Mick Fealty on May 24, 2007, 10:24 pm

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We’re picking up rumours of valid voters being prevented from voting. We have no indication of scale or geographical spread, but it is hardly surprising, since the register was thought to be up 15% inaccurate by polling day, and the parties had already assembled their legal teams well in advance. The final scale will tell whether this is a story with legs… It is, as they say, too early to tell… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has …

Minority’s in the majority?

Pete Baker on May 24, 2007, 9:16 pm

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There’s already a minority administration in Scotland and, despite earlier reports to the contrary, a similar arrangement is a distinct possibility in Wales [pending a last minute volte-face by the Lib-Dems – Ed]. ‘Here’ that’s not currently an option.. but is it likely ‘there’? Pete Baker

Is Bertie about to follow DUP’s ‘good example’?

Mick Fealty on May 24, 2007, 2:54 pm

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Brian Feeney casts his eye south of the border. He reckons Sinn Fein nibbling on the edges of government will cause much agitation within the DUP. He’s possibly right. However the actual position of the DUP on seeing Sinn Fein walking into a future government may not be as clear cut as he suggests. In fact, Frank Millar went directly to the heart of the problem last month. “The Doc”‘s response: Given the decisions he has had to make, would …