FF onward march, FG following, the rest nowhere…

FG Mairead McGuinness concedes in Louth… so no second seat there for Fine Gael… Also Harry is calling Meath East two FF, which I’m guessing would see the previously unfancied Tommy Byrne oust the long term favorite Dominic Hannigan. Harry with the rest of his 1.30 remarks:

Fine Gael have had a good election and will make gains of something in the order of 15 seats. They have had a good election, but not as good as their main rivals.

4. The return of the civil ward divide has meant serious squeezage and decline for everybody else. Many of Fine Gael’s gains will come at the expense of their putatative Rainbow partners – Labour and the Greens – either sitting TDs or prospective gains.

5. Labour have had a poor campaign. At this stage, they don’t look like making any gains and will sustain at least one loss, with another three or four of their seats in trouble.

6. There has been no Green tide. None of their three great hopes, Mary White, Deirdre de Burca and Niall O Brolchain will winn seats, according to the tallies. Ciaran Cuffe and John Gormley are bothvery vulnerable.

7. PD. A near wipe-out. Mae Sexton gone. Tim O’Malley gone. Tom Parlon in trouble. Mc Dowelll battling it for the last seat. Noel Grealish a bit safer. Harney battling. Liz O’Donnell gone. Fiona O’Malley gone. All of their new candidates have been squeezed.

8. Sinn Fein. No tide from the greens of another hue. Sean Crowe is in huge danger in Dublin South West. No gains in Dublin North East or Dublin North West. Donegal South West lookign a bit dodgy. Only Padraig MacLochlainn looks like he has a strong chance.

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty