RED C: SF continues to slide, and it’s hard to see a credible way back for the coalition

Just quickly to bring us up to date with the latest Red C poll… POLL: SBP/Red C (Mon-Wed, MoE ±3%) FG 30 (+2 in 6 weeks) Lab 7 (-3) FF 20 (+2) SF 16 Inds 20 (-4) Greens 2 Renua 2 AAA-PBP 1 SD 1 Others 1 — Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) October 24, 2015 Two notable things. One is the rise again of independents, which puts my working theory of ‘convergence’ severely to the test. As the new Social Democrat candidate for East Cork Ken Curtain notes: This #redc chart …

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Latest Red C Poll shows a shift towards government parties (and away from SF)

Many of you will already have seen these results over the weekend… FG 27 (+3) (+6 since Dec), Lab 10 (+3) (+4 since Dec), FF 18 (=), SF 17 (-4) (-7 since Dec), Ind/Oth 28 (-2). [Ind 24, Grn 2, Ren 2], DK 13. — Richard Colwell (@REDCMD) March 28, 2015 The key change here is in the confirmation that the last Red C Poll (for Paddy Power) was indeed indicating a rising fortune for both Labour and Fine Gael. …

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Red C Poll: Dip for independents, but all parties pretty much as they were…

So here’s the latest poll in the south. In my reading there’s not a lot of change, but perhaps a slight hardening upwards of the government parties fortunes. Independent/others 27% (-3); Fine Gael 26% (+2); Sinn Féin 21% (-); Fianna Fáil 17% (-1) & Labour 9% (+2) No real change from the last time this poll was taken, but you’ve got to think that with the economic climate is starting to shift perceptively, there must be some play for government …

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Red C Poll: 30% of Irish people prefer small or no party candidates…

So, in Ireland the public volatility continues. Here’s the latest SPB poll… FG 22% (-4) LP 8% (NC) FF 18% (NC) SF 22% (+2) Ind/Small Parties 30% (+2) Judging by the reaction of Sinn Fein supporters on Twitter, a huge relief that the Cahill scandal has had not effect on its support (as is customary on here we’re treating a 2% rise as being safely margin of error). In fact their real source of delight has to be the continuing …

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Sinn Fein rise 5% in Red C sets them up for a surge in southern Local Elections…

The secret of politics as it is in comedy, is timing. Just over a month before the local elections in the south, it is Sinn Fein who’ve made the decisive move upwards in the polls. Today’s Red C poll sees a substantive rise in Sinn Fein’s rating: Fine Gael 26% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 22% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (up 5%), Labour Party 9% (down 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 22% (NC) On the face of it all the …

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Is 2014 going to be a seminal year for Irish politics?

So here’s the latest Red C poll: Fine Gael 28% (-1%) ; Labour 10% (-2%) ; Fianna Fail 22% (n/c) ; Sinn Fein 18% (+3%) ; Independents 22% (n/c) With European and local council elections coming up this year there is an opportunity for the political parties to lay down a political marker for the run in to the next general election which is currently thought most likely to be called late next year. Looking back to 2009 results there seems to be …

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B&A Poll: Dissatisfaction with politicians is the most distinctive factor in Irish politics…

Looking like that bounce back for Fine Gael, was an outlier… Fine Gael has dropped one point to 26%, compared to 29% support for Fianna Fáil, a rise of two points. Labour’s support has fallen three points to 8% – while Sinn Féin has risen two points to 19% since the last poll in May. Support for independents and others has risen by one point to 19%. A high level of those polled are undecided, accounting for 34%. None of …

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Polls: Is Sinn Fein becoming a first stop for government disaffection?

It’s rare you get two polls out in Ireland on the same weekend. Since they both suggest slightly different dramas the net effect seems to have been each to cancel the other out. Let’s take the Sunday Times poll first, from Stephen O’Brien on Twitter, who’ve gone with the FF FG neck and neck narrative: Sunday Times/B&A pollFG 26 -4 FF 24 +2Lab 11 -1SF 19 +5Ind 18 -1Green 3 nc — Stephen O’Brien (@sob999) January 26, 2013 Gav Reilly …

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Red C Poll: Government parties ‘stabilise’ with Fianna Fail steady as she goes…

Here goes with the rest of that Paddy Power/Red C poll… Much of the reasoning of holding it or at least announcing it now is the legislating for the abortion issue. And there’s some interesting detail on that, but first the figures for the parties… Fine Gael 29 per cent Labour 13 per cent. Fianna Fáil 21 per cent Sinn Féin 16 per cent. Independents, the Green Party and others 21 per cent. It hasn’t shifted much from Behaviours and …

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[Corrected] over half of southerners think restriction of Union flag in Belfast was wrong…

Well, southerners may not have been impressed with the shenanigans of Loyalist protesters, but it is clear they’re not impressed with the move to take the ‘flag from the pole’ either. Here’s the latest Red C findings: Over half of those surveyed, 57pc, felt Belfast city council was wrong to restrict the flying of the Union flag at Belfast city hall. Update: From the official report, courtesy of JR below: Over half of those that expressed an opinion (57%) suggest …

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Red C Poll: The trend lines between FG and FF softly narrowing…

The most interesting aspect of yesterday’s Red C poll, was the 80 plus per cent in favour of legislating on the circumstances in which an abortion might be legally reformed in the Republic. That would put some pure green (not to mention socially liberal) water between the north and the south on the matter. Only 10% said No, and a mere 5% Don’t Know. But on the political front, there’s been some interesting shifts in government ratings, with Fine Gael …

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#EUREF: Sentiment swings towards a Yes vote (whilst FF and SF consolidate)…

The only extraordinary thing about yesterday’s Red C poll results for the SBP, was the clear swing towards Yes, by six per cent age points. That’s probably reflective of a poor campaign thus far, and the degree of uncertainty thrown up by the chaos in Greece… And, as Stephen Collins noted on Saturday: …far from undermining the Yes campaign, the arrival of Hollande on the scene with his emphasis on growth should actually be a help to it in the …

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Poll shows a stiffening of support for the Fiscal Compact…

Interesting to note that since the referendum was announced support for the fiscal compact has stiffen considerable since the Sunday Business Post last polled on the matter in late January, when yes shaded it by 53 to 47. With the announcement that widens to 60-40: What’s interesting to see how the trend goes. This is not likely to be like either of the Lisbon debates, a document which was obscure and argument hard to follow or even verify. Not signing …

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Lab + SF + GP = FF + FG – 2%

There had been rumours that tomorrows Red C opinion poll for the Sun would produce a surprise (partly because it is a party poll rather than leader poll). It will be tomorrow before we get the details (date of polling, methodology etc). But Matt Cooper (TodayFM) leaked the figures earlier on his radio show – FG 32%, Lab 24%, SF 16%, FF 13%, Greens 3%, others 11%. Many will spin that, post-Donegal SW, SF are merely getting a positive bounce, while ignoring the potential …

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The global parish pump and benchmarking by-elections.

After days and days of posturing and throwing shapes in Dublin, none of the principle actors have changed chairs and all that has been issued is a four year plan that might have been written two years ago. For all the unachieved drama, all that seems to have actually happened is that whatever sovereignty remained to the Republic of Ireland has been outsourced to anyone with a cheque book (and deep pockets). Ironically, with no money in the budget to allow them to buy off the electorate, the …

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Red C: Doherty to take Donegal South West at a canter

A Red C poll to be published tomorrow will show Sinn Fein’s Pearse Doherty sitting on 40%  of the 1st preference votes in the Donegal South West constituency, some 21% ahead of the second placed Fianna Fail candidate. Perhaps just as interestingly, the Sinn Fein candidate would appear to be strongly positioned to pick up second preference votes, with some 19% of those polled stating they’d transfer directly to him following their first choice candidates. Whilst this is just an …

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Fine Gael retain lead in Red C poll

The latest SBP/RedC poll shows a surge for Labour although less than the Irish Times poll from a fortnight ago. Fine Gael retain a healthy lead and FF languishing on a steady 24%. David has the detail on politics.ie: FF 24% (NC) FG 33% (+3) LAB 27% (+5) Greens 2% (-3) http://pie.ly/cln4Le Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest …

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