RED C Poll shows another rally in the Fine Gael vote…

RED CI’ve given up writing up every poll that comes out, but this is interesting for two reasons. One Fine Gael is clearly rallying. And two, the Labour party may not be as dead in the water as some its critics believe. 10% is poor, but it’s only two points below the 12%-14% corridor it was in before the Gilmore Gale.

The stability (give us another chance to set up the recovery) message may be working. The good news may be in the timing here, since this is still firmly in the pre budget period.

The SF total is within the margin of error, so not too much to extrapolate against the latest news from NI. But it is worth noting that their 16% is well below the more healthy 19-22% slot it was hitting before the summer.

, ,

  • Robin Keogh

    Great news for the coalition, not so great for FF or us Shinners, not much else to say except the battle lines are drawn and if the gov parties can maintain these figures they might well go to the country before Christmas.

  • mickfealty

    The odd thing about FF is it rarely seems to move off 19, just two points above 2011. They have an unimpressive but rock steady base way below historic levels. Their key advantage I suspect is that they don’t have many serious rivals to that base. So I expect them to be focused on gaming back margins of those losses.

  • chrisjones2

    The losses may be because its unfashionable to publicly now admit supporting them but in the confidence of the polling booth old patterns may out.

    We shall see

  • eamoncorbett

    FG plus Shane Ross type independents in government , Fred Bassett in opposition.

  • Jag

    If you take take an average of the polls over the past three months, FG is on around 26% and Labour on 8% (FG did score a 29% in June and Labour did 9% in another June poll).

    But, with an average of 34%, FG and Labour will need to improve support by 25% to give them around 43%, before they can form the next government.

    Who knows. The economy is humming and going in one direction, and in the end, it’s mostly about the economy. There are banana skins and Irish Water which will take the shine off. I think 25% of a boost for FG/Labour is just too much of an ask in the next 5 months.

    It still looks like FG/FF for the next govt despite all the pearl- and handbag-clutching by FF. I don’t think FF/SF or FG/SF could form a govt by themselves even if either wanted a coalition with SF.

    If the next government is FG/Labour, then that is woeful news for SF because FF will lead the Opposition and SF will stay in the second division of Opposition for another term when the economy is growing, and with a growing economy, Labour might win back some left wing votes.

  • Robin Keogh

    But FF are now as transfer toxic as SF once were which seriously affects the potential to sweep up a few extra seats, and if they are honestly considering supporting a minority FG Labour government they might alienate Green SF and ‘other’ voters who might have considered giving them number 2. I think it was a mistake by FF to openly suggest supporting a minority government.

  • tmitch57

    The collectivist solution to all problems–line them up against a wall and shoot them.

  • mickfealty

    Carlow Kilkenny by election suggests otherwise Robin… (We’re not all dumb partitionists you know? 😉 )

  • Robin Keogh

    Bad example. CK was the only constituency to stick by FF in the 2011 election and they got the same percentage share in the bi-election 4 years later.

  • mickfealty

    Sorry, I thought we were talking about transfers rather than percentages.

    They had a defected candidate in the field, Renua’s first run and an incumbent who didn’t canvass in his area. It was transfers got Aylward over the line in the end, IIRC.

  • Robin Keogh

    The same applies, Car/Kil is a rogue example -if you can call it that- on both first preference and transfers. If you look at the 2014 euro elections for example, FF in Dublin got less than 7% of all available transfers, and did almost as bad in midlands North West. Ironically FF could always count on a hefty chunk of SF transfers to get their lads over the line in the past but MM’s untruths and devious inventions has totally killed that at a time when shinners have three times more votes to transfer. I think FF will do better than 18% as the polls always underestimate their strength but how much better will save MM’s skin? Thats the question.