IT Poll suggests pre-Christmas Brexit euphoria around Taoiseach is starting to wear off

I’m generally not minded to bother readers with polls unless they tell us something new or challenging. Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI contains some details I think are well worth noting. Here are the headline figures… Not a lot of change in the general pattern (note that independents still sit on shrinking ground), though as Damian Loscher notes Sinn Féin is up three points to 22%, its highest rating in this poll since early 2016. He also notes that: Sinn Féin … Read more

After a turbulent start to ‘new politics’, Republic’s polling returns to February’s level

We don’t touch on every poll that comes out (and I’m not sure we even blogged Fianna Fail on 33%). [Hold on, Declan says you did! – Ed]. But this one is interesting if only in that it confirms that the loose political peloton formation that was such a feature of polls during the last government hasn’t gone away: Fine Gael, 26 per cent (up two points); Fianna Fáil, 26 per cent (down seven points); Labour, 5 per cent (no change); … Read more

New poll suggests old FFers are returning to actual Fianna Fail…

One of the worse refractions of political light, as it comes across the border from the south to the north, is the illusion that somehow the southern electorate share the same obsessions and political outlook as those of us in Northern Ireland. For many northerners, southern politics did not really exist before the Sinn Fein expeditionary force began to should some fruit for it’s long and patient endeavour to seize power on both sides of the border. Accordingly, we tend … Read more

Wales now experiencing a mild dose of ‘buyer’s regret’?

Fascinating results from the Welsh Political Barometer poll. I doubt it was the taunting by Northern Ireland fans… More likely a post ref reminder that large parts of the post-industrial economy in Wales is sustained by EU structural funds now hang by a wafer thin Tory (neo-Thatcherite?) thread. Or just plain old morning after blues. Here’s the headline figures: Remain: 46% Leave: 41% Would Not Vote: 8% Don’t Know: 5% In his analysis, Roger Scully notes: …there is not much overall change. But that which … Read more

Whatever the lobby thinks poll suggests Micheal Martin is preferred to Enda as Taoiseach

For those in the southern press who think a grand coalition is just grand, and imminent, I’m just putting this here… …more people favoured a Fianna Fail-led minority government (14pc), rising to 37pc of Fianna Fail supporters ahead, of a Fine Gael-led one (8pc), rising to 19pc of Fine Gael supporters. The poll also found that 70pc of people would vote the same way if a new election was called, rising to 82pc of Fianna Fail supporters, 83pc of Sinn … Read more

Into the last week of #GE16 and momentum is with Independents and Fianna Fail…

By the end of this week, the election will have run its full course. And yet it’s clear that the journalists are suffering that usual sense you get in Irish elections that they’re getting shut out of a conversation they aren’t privy to… Richard Downes takes you ‘behind the spin’ with this report tonight. #RTEPThttps://t.co/qeUnaAEqDW — RTÉ Prime Time (@RTE_PrimeTime) February 18, 2016   Another of these surprising constituency polls (-/+5%) came out in the week suggesting that Sinn Fein’s … Read more

Latest Polls: Rise of ‘independents and others’ may make Ireland ungovernable for years

So two polls yesterday. One, a national one for Red C which seems to unwind the apparent progress for Sinn Fein and drops the Fine Gael party just a little closer to that bulging political peloton in the bottom twenties… A further fall in support for Fine Gael in the latest Red C poll for @IrishSunOnline #GE16 pic.twitter.com/937777rfy0 — Fergal O’Brien TV3 (@FergalOBrienTV3) February 16, 2016 With don’t knows squeezed to 9% very few are being drawn to support any … Read more

What the latest poll really says about the polarised nature of Irish politics?

As some of you will have noticed I have more or less given up reporting the polls in the south. Apart from a few blips, it’s pretty much been the same for much of the last 2/3 years. This morning’s Irish Times poll is no exception. Bear in mind that the error margin is -/+ 2.8% and there is no change here. These are the parameters of the election. When you factor in the randomising nature of PR STV multi … Read more

[Cough] This is what politics really looks like when you’ve stripped out all the meaningful content…

Would you Adam and Eve it?Peter Serafinowicz gives Donald Trump a cockney makeover.No words were changed. Posted by Slugger O'Toole on Friday, 29 January 2016 And here’s one person’s reasoning as to why populists like Trump always win… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Is the polling meltdown in the UK a stern warning for Ireland [and #BrexitRef]?

So the British Polling Council is publishing Professor Patrick Sturgis’ report “The Inquiry into the Failure of the 2015 Pre-election Polls…” It doesn’t look good for the pollsters… For the first time we may be getting a clear glimpse of just who the shy Tory voter is. It may be that they aren’t shy at all, more that they are just too busy working to answer the phone or say yes to a pollster’s enquiry. Here’s the thing, not only … Read more

#IrelandsCall: So similar and yet north and south continue their long slow drift apart…

RTE/BBCNI Ireland’s Call survey 2015 from Slugger Consults Here’s an initial collation of the slides from last night’s programme, taken from what RTE and BBC NI have shared on their websites, and a couple of screenshots I took at the time. If you have any more do let me know and I will add them to a second iteration? There’s lots of yummy data in the overall survey, not least the indications just how happy everyone seems to be both … Read more

Martin McGuinness: “…it is not conducive to getting a good outcome.”

Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness doesn’t appear to have had much to say today about the behind-closed-doors talks at Stormont – apart from telling the BBC’s Chris Page The timeframe for a deal in Stormont’s inter-party talks is “days, not weeks”, the deputy first minister has said. Martin McGuinness said he believed a deal was “achievable” and that the talks process was “intensifying”. Still, it’s good to see Sinn Féin on the same page as the Prime Minister, David Cameron, at … Read more

RedC on Sinn Féin: “The greatest declines are seen among younger voters…”

Following on from Mick’s post, it’s worth highlighting an interesting detail from, Managing Director of RedC, Richard Colwell’s analysis of the poll. Back in December we were recording the highest levels of support seen for Sinn Fein in any RED C poll, reaching a high of 24% of the first preference vote. In today’s poll they secured just 16%, the worst level seen for the party since February 2014. That means that in effect the party has lost 8% support over … Read more

RED C: SF continues to slide, and it’s hard to see a credible way back for the coalition

Just quickly to bring us up to date with the latest Red C poll… POLL: SBP/Red C (Mon-Wed, MoE ±3%) FG 30 (+2 in 6 weeks) Lab 7 (-3) FF 20 (+2) SF 16 Inds 20 (-4) Greens 2 Renua 2 AAA-PBP 1 SD 1 Others 1 — Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) October 24, 2015 Two notable things. One is the rise again of independents, which puts my working theory of ‘convergence’ severely to the test. As the new Social Democrat candidate for East Cork Ken Curtain notes: This #redc chart … Read more

Greek Referendum: “a chunk of undecided voters to fight over.”

Via the Guardian’s Greece crisis blog.   Another wrinkle for the game theory academics in the Syriza-led Greek Government, and those agitating on their behalf, to contemplate ahead of the controversial, and confused, on/off/on 5 July referendum in Greece. GPO poll Yes 47.1% No 43.2% Undecided 6.3% (via @euro2day_gr) #Greferendum #Greece #politics pic.twitter.com/xJRr3K2uAC — MacroPolis (@MacroPolis_gr) July 1, 2015 Pete Baker

Is the Greek crisis running an important political counterfactual on Ireland’s ‘nightmare bailout’?

I have to say that I take a rather different view from Paul on Ireland and the current phase of the Eurocrisis. Like all wicked problems, it is one replete with all sorts of layers and the Grexit issue is only one in a long line of thorny issues that will have to be dealt with. If there is a value in the comparison with Thatcher it might be between Tspiras and Arthur Scargill. You cannot fail to sympathise with the … Read more

Red C Poll: Dip for independents, but all parties pretty much as they were…

So here’s the latest poll in the south. In my reading there’s not a lot of change, but perhaps a slight hardening upwards of the government parties fortunes. Independent/others 27% (-3); Fine Gael 26% (+2); Sinn Féin 21% (-); Fianna Fáil 17% (-1) & Labour 9% (+2) No real change from the last time this poll was taken, but you’ve got to think that with the economic climate is starting to shift perceptively, there must be some play for government … Read more