polls – Page 2 – Slugger O'Toole

Is the Greek crisis running an important political counterfactual on Ireland’s ‘nightmare bailout’?

Mick Fealty on June 30, 2015, 2:23 pm

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I have to say that I take a rather different view from Paul on Ireland and the current phase of the Eurocrisis. Like all wicked problems, it is one replete with all sorts of layers and the Grexit issue is only one in a long line of thorny issues that will have to be dealt with. If there is a value in the comparison with Thatcher it might be between Tspiras and Arthur Scargill. You cannot fail to sympathise with the …

Red C Poll: Dip for independents, but all parties pretty much as they were…

Mick Fealty on March 13, 2015, 11:57 am

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So here’s the latest poll in the south. In my reading there’s not a lot of change, but perhaps a slight hardening upwards of the government parties fortunes. Independent/others 27% (-3); Fine Gael 26% (+2); Sinn Féin 21% (-); Fianna Fáil 17% (-1) & Labour 9% (+2) No real change from the last time this poll was taken, but you’ve got to think that with the economic climate is starting to shift perceptively, there must be some play for government …

[Corrected] Sinn Fein shoots up five points the latest Sindo/Milward Brown Poll…

Mick Fealty on February 16, 2015, 4:52 pm

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So the Millward Brown/Sunday Independent poll probably gives the most excitable readings of all the polls, so this one should be read with some caution. Just two weeks ago, though unreported here on Slugger (I plead boredom, for not having jumped) it showed SF in a sudden drop, now they have a severe bump: Sinn Fein 26% (up 5%%), Fine Gael 25% (+3%), Independents and Others 23% (down 9%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (up 1%). Sinn Fein most …

Red C Poll: 30% of Irish people prefer small or no party candidates…

Mick Fealty on November 24, 2014, 4:53 pm

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So, in Ireland the public volatility continues. Here’s the latest SPB poll… FG 22% (-4) LP 8% (NC) FF 18% (NC) SF 22% (+2) Ind/Small Parties 30% (+2) Judging by the reaction of Sinn Fein supporters on Twitter, a huge relief that the Cahill scandal has had not effect on its support (as is customary on here we’re treating a 2% rise as being safely margin of error). In fact their real source of delight has to be the continuing …

Sinn Fein top of the polls: Rumours of their demise greatly exaggerated?

David McCann on November 1, 2014, 8:44 pm

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Latest polls in the South will be giving Sinn Fein reason to raise a glass tonight as they have suffered one of the biggest crises since 2004. Here is the latest Millward/Brown Poll which will appear in tomorrows Sunday Independent Fine Gael -22% Fianna Fáil – 20% Sinn Féin -26% Labour-7pc, Independent-23% I will pose this question to the Sluggerverse what is the secret of their succcess? David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You …

#IndyRef Poll of Polls moves to a 45 to 55 split between Yes and No…

Mick Fealty on September 2, 2014, 10:36 am

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Nice piece of analysis from John Curtice at What Scotland Thinks in which he notes the strong pro Yes dynamic in the polls of the last week, in contrast to the general stasis of much of the campaign heretofore. Their poll of polls processes the latest ‘gains’ for yes, and (excluding Don’t Knows) set the current rate at the tightest margin yet… He offers four key points… …the issue that above all seems capable of persuading people to vote Yes or …

Polls: Ireland’s two party system dead as four blocks slip into their electoral trenches

Mick Fealty on April 20, 2014, 7:58 am

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So, two Irish polls this weekend. Not sure what to make of either of them to be honest, since there’s a divergence between them in FG’s rating of some 9%. The B&A poll in the Sunday Times has Fine Gael dropping like stone from 30% to 21%, whilst Sindo/Millward Brown has them on 29% (no change). Here’s the adjusted figures: Sunday Times/B&A poll: FG 21 (-9 since end Feb), FF 20 (+1), SF 20 (+2), Lab 9 (unchanged), Greens 4 …

Ipsos- MRBI Poll: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail leveling out…

Mick Fealty on April 3, 2014, 11:31 pm

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Just a quick one, the Irish Times poll figures have some interesting if minor changes in the party fortunes in the south… …when undecided voters are excluded – compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fine Gael, 25 per cent (down five points); Labour, 8 per cent (down one point); Fianna Fáil, 25 per cent (up three points); Sinn Féin, 21 per cent (no change); and Independents/Others, 21 per cent (up three points). The core vote for the parties compared with the …

#LE14: Rising tide of populism likely to damage Fine Gael and reward Sinn Fein…

Mick Fealty on April 2, 2014, 3:06 pm

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Former Fianna Fail spad Gerald Howlin’s take on the Red C Poll is worth reading in the Examiner today (if only for some useful historical context): A new seismic shift is under way. It is far greater than any that is gone before and it is far from over. It is still unclear if the general election of 2011 was the main shock or its precursor. Fianna Fáil’s once vast stock of political capital is irretrievably scattered. Labour’s is in …

Sinn Fein rise 5% in Red C sets them up for a surge in southern Local Elections…

Mick Fealty on March 30, 2014, 9:44 am

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The secret of politics as it is in comedy, is timing. Just over a month before the local elections in the south, it is Sinn Fein who’ve made the decisive move upwards in the polls. Today’s Red C poll sees a substantive rise in Sinn Fein’s rating: Fine Gael 26% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 22% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (up 5%), Labour Party 9% (down 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 22% (NC) On the face of it all the …

Sinn Fein and the south-where do they go from here? #SFAF

David McCann on February 9, 2014, 3:23 pm

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In September, I wrote a post about the rise of Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland not being all that it seemed. So, I thought with the party’s Ard Fheis being this weekend I would take a quick scan of the party’s electoral performance in the Irish Republic. (There are no in-depth databases on Irish elections as the main website is currently down so bits of this are patchy) While I was critical of the party’s rise being based on fundamentally …

Is 2014 going to be a seminal year for Irish politics?

Mick Fealty on January 9, 2014, 1:36 pm

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So here’s the latest Red C poll: Fine Gael 28% (-1%) ; Labour 10% (-2%) ; Fianna Fail 22% (n/c) ; Sinn Fein 18% (+3%) ; Independents 22% (n/c) With European and local council elections coming up this year there is an opportunity for the political parties to lay down a political marker for the run in to the next general election which is currently thought most likely to be called late next year. Looking back to 2009 results there seems to be …

Ipsos /MRBI: Irish Labour’s ‘poll of despond’…

Mick Fealty on October 1, 2013, 12:53 pm

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Here’s the latest figures from the Irish Times Ipsos /MRBI poll… Fine Gael: 26% Sinn Féin: 23% Fianna Fáil: 22% Labour: 6% Greens: 2% Others/Ind: 21% Right about now is when Labour party activists should be hitting the panic like hell button. As Adrian Kavanagh notes, the party has not seen ratings like this in twenty five years, though it has to be said, the change is right on the margin of error. Labour’s absences, as noticed by Miriam Lord, …

B&A Poll: Dissatisfaction with politicians is the most distinctive factor in Irish politics…

Mick Fealty on July 8, 2013, 11:56 am

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Looking like that bounce back for Fine Gael, was an outlier… Fine Gael has dropped one point to 26%, compared to 29% support for Fianna Fáil, a rise of two points. Labour’s support has fallen three points to 8% – while Sinn Féin has risen two points to 19% since the last poll in May. Support for independents and others has risen by one point to 19%. A high level of those polled are undecided, accounting for 34%. None of …

Ipsos/MRBI: FF maintain a short lead whilst SF rejoin Ireland’s political peloton…

Mick Fealty on June 14, 2013, 2:13 pm

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So, the latest Ipsos/MRBI poll is out in the Irish Times. At this mid point in the term of the thirty first Dail, there’s not a lot of change to highlight. Fianna Fail at just two points ahead of Fine Gael is within the margin of error, but means steady as she goes. The party will want to widen that gap before next year’s local elections, not least because Sinn Fein’s bump back up to 21% suggest they are also …

Behaviour and Attitudes: And then there were two..

Mick Fealty on March 30, 2013, 8:38 pm

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Cedar Lounge have the figures for tomorrow’s Behaviours and Attitudes poll in the Sunday Times: Fine Gael 27 (+1); Fianna Fail 23 (-1); Lab 7 (-4); Sinn Fein 15 (-4); Ind 25 (+7) So much for the grand political photon then? These figures are more like the truth of the matter. FG holding a narrow lead over FF, and SF holding a very clear lead over Labour whose world, just now, is truly falling apart. That independent figure is high, …

Millward Brown poll puts Fianna Fail comfortably up on its #LG09 figure

Mick Fealty on March 18, 2013, 7:20 am

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So, via Cedar Lounge, here’s the latest from Millward Brown poll for the Sindo… Labour 9% -2% Fine Gael 25% +1% Fianna Fail 29% +6% Sinn Fein 20% -1% Others 17% -5% Don’t know -32% Millward Brown have polled less regularly and less frequently than other companies. To some extent this poll merely confirms Fianna Fail’s recent rise in rival polls at the direct expense of Fine Gael. But it is also the most convincing sign that its ‘domestic vote’ …

Millward Brown Poll: Scary buns for Fine Gael?

Mick Fealty on February 16, 2013, 9:32 pm

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No polls for a while then three or four come along at once. News broke tonight of the Sunday Independent’s Millward Brown poll.. MB have done a few polls on politics for the Sindo, but the last comparative poll that I have figures for was last May… These figures are proportions of voters after eliminating the undecided, which stands at a high figure 27% ; Fianna Fáil 27% (17), Fine Gael 25% (36) Sinn Féin 20% (20) Labour 13% (12) …

Fine Gael drop back towards Ireland’s large political peloton

Mick Fealty on February 11, 2013, 9:01 pm

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Let’s get one thing straight, polls do not increase or decrease the size of a political party. They are nere snapshots of opinion, not predictors of the future. So whilst Sinn Fein was never the second largest party in the state, neither is Fianna Fail currently the largest. Of course both, if trends continue, are set to make gains in the next big elections, which are the Locals and Europeans. But all we can say at the moment is that the …

Polls: Is Sinn Fein becoming a first stop for government disaffection?

Mick Fealty on January 27, 2013, 10:50 am

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It’s rare you get two polls out in Ireland on the same weekend. Since they both suggest slightly different dramas the net effect seems to have been each to cancel the other out. Let’s take the Sunday Times poll first, from Stephen O’Brien on Twitter, who’ve gone with the FF FG neck and neck narrative: Sunday Times/B&A pollFG 26 -4 FF 24 +2Lab 11 -1SF 19 +5Ind 18 -1Green 3 nc — Stephen O’Brien (@sob999) January 26, 2013 Gav Reilly …