Millward Brown poll puts Fianna Fail comfortably up on its #LG09 figure

So, via Cedar Lounge, here’s the latest from Millward Brown poll for the Sindo…

Labour 9% -2%

Fine Gael 25% +1%

Fianna Fail 29% +6%

Sinn Fein 20% -1%

Others 17% -5%

Don’t know -32%

Millward Brown have polled less regularly and less frequently than other companies. To some extent this poll merely confirms Fianna Fail’s recent rise in rival polls at the direct expense of Fine Gael. But it is also the most convincing sign that its ‘domestic vote’ is coming home.

This should make the Meath East by election even more interesting than it was before. Although Fine Gael have some important local factors in their favour, not least the choice of candidate, both main opposition parties should do well.

As with other recent polls the ‘don’t know’ figure is substantially higher than that for any single party. This higher level of uncertainty comes with a perceptible reversal in the fortunes of the independents.

Ming Flanagan’s driving points scandal will not have helped, nor the slow unravelling of the ULA. But there’s no apparent sign of movement to Sinn Fein. Rather the movement seems to be from independent to ‘don’t know’, or even Fianna Fail.

Sinn Fein is steady as she goes. Stablising at twice the last general election rate and seven points higher than when they ran Martin McGuinness is a sound position.

Polling at twice the rate of Labour is, in theory, a replacement figure. But if you put Labour’s 9% and SF’s 20% it is evident that SF is not just pulling sentiment from disgruntled lefties.

Adrian Kavanagh’s seat predictions have Labour on just two seats outside Dublin. He’s giving SF two seats in several constituencies including Cavan Monaghan and a third seat in Gerry Adams’ Louth.

So where SF are already strong (largely around the border), they are taking sentiment from both of the older Republican parties. That’s not the case elsewhere. Next year’s local council elections will be the first real test of the opposition’s progress.

In 2009 Fine Gael took 34.7% of the local government vote, with Fianna Fail taking 25% and Labour 14.2%. Sinn Fein took just 7.8%.

Even accounting for a higher profile in the less likely to vote D and E categories, Sinn Fein is currently on track for a council seat bonanza. But the momentum is with Fianna Fail. 29% is four points better than its 2009 performance, and there’s still over a year to go.

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  • SeaanUiNeill

    “As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly,” and the voter returns unfailingly to the people who brought you the crisis in the first place.

    Its a bit like being given a box full of poison capsules and being told to pick the “right” one. Has no one noticed what’s happening in Italy with the “Movimento 5 stelle”? If only we were politically mature enough for a local, all Ireland “páirtí cúig réalta” that might rid us of” the see-saw of party politics on both sides of the border.

  • Greenflag

    The ‘Don’t Knows ‘win by a plurality of votes .

    That and Labour’s drop to below two digits seem to be the most important results from this survey .Gilmore may be on his way out if these figures continue to drop for Labour . FF are still a long way off from ‘recapturing ‘ their old vote .

    ‘Has no one noticed what’s happening in Italy ‘

    The good news is Berlusconi got 12 months in jail -The bad news is that he’s appealing against his sentence and the European Banksters have upped the ante by stealing money directly from depositors savings in Cyprus rather than by the backdoor method of below inflation rate interest rates .British & Irish expats the worst affected and also I hear the Russian mafia who have apparently been lodging their ‘gains’ in Cypriot banks .

    Some 35% of deposits in Cypriot banks are held by non Cypriots .

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Greenflag, thank you for posting the good really news about Berlusconi, but I’ll believe it when I see him behind bars.

    And yes, “32% don’t know,” but as I’m looking down the hill below my workroom to a far field I can see sheep heading for the gate where the man who will remove their fleece is dropping sheep lick into a field trough. He just appears and they run over……

    I really wish I was not so cynical.

  • PaddyReilly

    Given the usual caveat that Opinion Polls are as reliable as Old Moore’s Almanac, the results of this poll, if believed, indicate that the next government will be a coalition of Fianna Fáil and Sinn Fein.

  • Mick Fealty

    That’s a hell of a leap Paddy. Certainly NOT a view that I would subscribe to, not least because I’m not sure neither party particularly wants to blur their edges by such a partnership. Or indeed trusts the other.

  • Greenflag

    ‘But I’ll believe it when I see him (Berlusconi) behind bars.’

    So will we all .Meanwhile progress or maybe is made in Britain

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21825823

    So the question is doe we trust the politicians & regulations or the press ? Berlusconi was both whereas Murdoch has so far avoided direct political elevation although he’s been known to have tetes a tete on board his yacht with Blair and other leading politicians ?

    Can’t imagine an SF /FF coalition . An FF /FG one would be more likely as if there were ever a tweedle dums and tweedle dees in Irish politics it has to be these two parties .

    Long past time to bury the ‘uncivil wars’ .But it may take another election to force FF to come to the inevitable conclusion that it’ll be a cool day in hell before they ever get to 70 seats in the Dail again .

  • PaddyReilly

    I don’t suppose SF wanted to go into coalition with the DUP, but the desire for power is an incredible aphrodisiac.

  • Berlusconi will not go to jail. From what I understand about the Italian legal processes, appeals can take 7 years or more and are easily successful for people with bags of money. Berlusconi falls into that category being one of Italy’s richest men.

  • Greenflag

    @ paddy reilly ,

    ‘I don’t suppose SF wanted to go into coalition with the DUP, but the desire for power is an incredible aphrodisiac.’

    Maybe continued Direct Rule was more of an incentive ?. Funny all the same if it was ‘power’ they were after .What exactly have they done with it since they got it ? Not a whole lot except kept the lid on for which the people of NIand the rest of thi island and Britain can be somewhat relieved -for now anyway