Red C Poll: Dip for independents, but all parties pretty much as they were…

So here’s the latest poll in the south. In my reading there’s not a lot of change, but perhaps a slight hardening upwards of the government parties fortunes.

Independent/others 27% (-3); Fine Gael 26% (+2); Sinn Féin 21% (-); Fianna Fáil 17% (-1) & Labour 9% (+2)

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No real change from the last time this poll was taken, but you’ve got to think that with the economic climate is starting to shift perceptively, there must be some play for government parties coming. The Central Statistics Office yesterday had some ddecent news on the last quarter.

And of course, Sinn Fein’s support, as ever, holding steady despite the McGahon story.

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  • Kevin Breslin

    The Irish libre esprit is still a more dominant political force than Fine Gael or Sinn Féin. Also I would expect a new Irish Labour party to leave government and try to consolidate with those just on the far left, as was the case with the Labour party and the Democratic Left.

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  • aber1991

    “Something 2007 or later is going to be needed to make any dent.”
    Perhaps, their idiotic economic policies.

    Even better, their even more idiotic support for immigration. But their opponents Labour, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have no room to be talking.
    Hopefully, Sinn Fein will get rid of the Loony Lefties and Loony Liberals who seem to be dictating party policy. If Sinn Fein were to fight the next election on an “Ireland for the Irish” platform, it would present a much more formidable challenge to the traditional parties.

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  • mickfealty

    Or I-kIP?

  • Robin Keogh

    The effects of Paudies story wont be seen for a couple of weeks. The fact that so many people are holding their breath is proof if proof was really needed as to what the real intention is behind these ‘scandals’. It kills me to admit it but i reckon SF are gonna get hit badly this time around. Having tried the ‘IRA leader’assault and having tried the ‘murderer’ assault, if the ‘child abuse’ push doesnt work there will be little left especially considering that this time around the push against SF from the media is palpable in its ferocity. If we stay above the 15% mark in the next poll it will be nothing short of miraculous.

  • Robin Keogh

    Lol. I was at a lecture in UCD last week. The professor up front was Doctor David Farrell. I dont know anything about his politics but i have always sensed he is middle ground material. Anyway, he was talking about cleavage phenomonan in politics and he said this… we should be thankful SF are around, they soak up all the protest vote on a policy of social fairness and equality, ultimately leaving no room for a UKIP or a BNP style party to get off the ground.

  • mickfealty

    Well, I think there are some valid comparisons with UKIP. In respect of foreign policy, the main (perhaps only) difference is that UKIP have one. 🙂 Indeed annunciating policy is what gets Nigel into the trouble he does all the time.

    The other main difference is that UKIP don’t in the least appeal to the poor and marginalised. Of course on the other hand UKIP don’t (as SF does) propose lower standards for dealing with sex abusers even than has been the (wholly unsatisfactory) case with Kincora.

    In essence, they are both gifted populist enterprises, who are also gifted at dramatising real problems with their respective democracies as they stand, but who believe in big scenario changes rather than reforming the system as it stands. This also broadly holds for Syriza too.

    In short they feed a hunger for agency, but then when put into positions of power appear utterly strapped for any idea of how to deliver said agency. Populism minus technocratic ability equals cynicism. But that’s where technocracy without a popular anchor has allowed us to drift.

  • Jag

    After BBC NI broadcast the Spotlight programme last October 2014 featuring Mairia Cahill’s experiences, SF came under incredible pressure in the Irish parliament and in the media, especially in the Independent group of newspapers (BelTel, Sunday World, Herald, Irish Independent, Sunday Independent). Mairia Cahill became a one-woman army sharply criticising SF, mainly Gerry Adams but also Mary Lou McDonald. There was talk of other alleged victims, and what the IRA had done with alleged perpetrators. Enda Kenny, Micheal Martin and Joan Burton ferociously attacked Sinn Fein.

    And the net result in the next opinion poll. SF in the Sunday Independent poll went from 21% to 26% making it the biggest party in the South.

    When Gerry Adams was arrested last May 2014 on suspicion of involvement in a 1970s abduction and killing, SF also came under the spotlight. This all happened in the teeth of European and local elections.

    And the net result in the European elections, SF topped the poll in NI and in the South won each of the three seats it contested, it could have fielded another candidate in Dublin who would almost certainly have been elected, and it could well have taken an additional seat in the South constituency (Munster, south Leinster). In the locals it maintained its position in the North and trebled its seats in the South.

    I don’t think this week’s Spotlight will make one iota of difference to SF. The usual suspects will continue with their attacks on SF, the story has disappeared from most media. Focus is on the Stormont House Agreement and St Patricks Day,

  • aber1991

    No. Those parties are pro-immigration.