Polling

Positively the last poll before the elections? maybe…

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Following hot on the heals of yesterday’s Belfast Telegraph poll from Lucid Talk, the Irish News has one today from Liverpool University. And there are some striking differences which you can see in the individual party charts. Sinn Feín 29.8% DUP 23% Alliance 14.5% UUP 12.8% SDLP 8.3% TUV 5% As with all polling the normal caveats apply: Margin of error. Liverpool University normally have a smaller sample than Lucid Talk, and therefore a larger margin of error of 3% …

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Last poll before the real poll: Lucid Talk’s latest

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The final poll before an election is a good time to remember the caveats that should be applied to all polling: Margin of error. (In the case of Lucid Talk 2.3%) The time lapse between the poll and the actual vote – during which some voters will change their minds. (In this case three weeks.) The don’t knows – who might swing more one way than the other when they actually vote – if they vote at all. But for …

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More of the same heralds changes at Council elections: latest Irish News poll…

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As the May Council elections approach the pattern of party support established after the Assembly elections remains solid. That is the main take out from today’s Liverpool University poll in the Irish News. Sinn Féin 30.6% DUP 23.9% Alliance 15.4% UUP 11.3% SDLP 6.7% Just how static this support has been for the last six months will be seen in the following charts. But before looking at them, and analysing their implications for those Council elections, we need to consider …

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As the parties gear up for one (or two?) elections – the latest Lucid Talk poll…

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If the on-again off-again Assembly Election were held tomorrow, the results would look almost the same as they did last May, according to Lucid Talk’s new poll in the Belfast Telegraph. But it points to significant changes at the Council elections in May. Sinn Féin 31% (+2 from last election) DUP 25% (+4) Alliance 15% (+1) UUP 10% (-1) SDLP 7% (-2) TUV 7% (-1) Aontú 2% (+1) PBPA 1% (No change) Green 1% (-1) Before we look as the …

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Big 3 increase dominance in new poll…

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The latest Lucid Talk poll was published in the Belfast Telegraph this morning, but, as an experiment, I started writing this analysis the evening before. That way it was possible to think about what different results for each party might mean, free from any unconscious influence from knowing the actual figures; which are: Sinn Féin 32% (+3 from last election) DUP 27% (+6) Alliance 15% (+1) UUP 9% (-2) SDLP 7% (-2) TUV 5% (-3) DUP At the Assembly election …

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United in prayer. New Lucid Talk poll…

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Are you happy?

Two party leaders will both be on their knees this morning, earnestly offering up the same plea to the heavens. “Please, please let there be no early Assembly election”. One of them, Colm Eastwood, has no control over the matter. The other, Jeffery Donaldson, has only to say the word for the current Assembly to continue its full term. But he is tortured by the message of this poll which tells him that Jim Allister may not allow him to …

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Uncertainty increased: the latest Irish News poll…

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There is a golden rule in reporting opinion polls: the more dramatic the poll result, the more cautiously it should be interpreted. The front-page headline of today’s Irish News, “Alliance and DUP neck and neck”, leaves little doubt that the latest Liverpool University poll is dramatic. SF 26.6% DUP and Alliance 18.2% each UUP 12.1% SDLP 10.5% TUV 5.7% Green 2.7% PBP 2.1% Others 3.9% The margin for error is 3.1% It is more productive to compare the changes between …

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Still all to play for. Latest LucidTalk poll…

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The most unpredictable Assembly election in many years just became more unpredictable, thanks to the latest poll from Lucid Talk. First the published results: SF 26% (-2 compared to Assembly ’17) DUP 19% (-9) Alliance 16% (+5) UUP 13% (n/c) SDLP 11% (-1) TUV 9% (+6) Green 2% (n/c) PBP 2% (n/c) Aontú / Other parties / Independents share 2% (-2) Given that seats won will be roughly proportional to first preference votes cast this would mean that the largest …

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As You Were! Party support static in latest Lucid Talk poll…

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That must be the least exciting headline you will read today. But with the poll showing Sinn Féin still sitting on a very healthy lead; the TUV retaining the lumps it carved out of the DUP in a three horse race to be biggest unionist party; and Alliance still poised for significant gains, the pattern is very much the same as it has been throughout most of last year. The full results in today’s Belfast Telegraph are: Sinn Féin 25% …

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Skating on Thin Ice. The lurking cracks that could open beneath the DUP…

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A close examination of the wealth of data in the recent Ashford poll reveals how the DUP could be facing the very real threat of political oblivion. Please suspend for a few minutes your instant reaction that this is either hysterical scaremongering or fanciful wishful thinking – depending on your political point of view. Before we look at the evidence it’s important to consider the Rule of Two. With only 5 seats available in each constituency, two highly adversarial voting …

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New poll: Majority think Northern Ireland will quit the Union…

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A new poll by Lord Ashcroft has good short term news for Unionists but a bleak long term. From Lord Ashcroft’s report in The Daily Mail: The survey, for pollster and Tory peer Lord Ashcroft, reveals that a clear majority would to opt to stay in the Union if a referendum were held now. However, just one in three Northern Irish voters believe that would be the outcome if a so-called ‘border poll’ is held in ten years’ time. And …

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Sunday Business Post poll on attitudes to Irish Unity…

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Some new polling courtesy of the Sunday Business Post on southern attitudes to the various questions around Irish Unity. Click the image below for a larger version. 60% in favour of Unity. 50/50 on if they are happy to pay more tax to pay for unity. Over 50% are not willing to consider changing the flag and anthem. Red-C poll: Attitudes towards a United Ireland (Sunday Business Post) pic.twitter.com/hrJ9J18uDC — Mike Tomlinson (@MikeTQUB) November 28, 2021 Their polling also shows Sinn …

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Thoughts on the latest Lucid Talk poll…

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Michael Hehir is a retired sales and marketing manager. He studied in Northern Ireland but now lives between England and Italy. Northern Ireland is still probably heading for an SF FM; there will be no vote to scrap the NI Protocol in the next Assembly; both unionist and nationalist designations will lose seats to Others; and Alliance is still on track to become the third party. These are the main outcomes that would follow if yesterdays Lucid Talk poll for …

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Inter communal consensus to get NI Protocol done, backing for the Assembly (but not a border poll)

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On tonight’s edition of The View, there’s some fascinating polling from the Irish Institute at the University of Liverpool. Fascinating mostly for the depth it goes into over how public opinion falls out over the Northern Irish protocol. For one thing, it turns out that whilst it may be exercising some members of the political class it’s not the top priority for for the electorate. Overall Health is top (29.1%), Covid Recovery is next (18.3%) followed by the Economy (12.4%). …

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Two-thirds of voters in Northern Ireland believe there should be a border poll…

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Lucid Talk have been busy little bees. Hot on the heels of their poll in yesterday’s Tele, they have another poll in today’s Observer. The subject this time is our old favourite – a border poll. From the article: Two-thirds of voters in Northern Ireland believe there should be a vote over its place in the UK, but only 37% want it to take place within the next five years, according to a new poll for the Observer. Some 31% …

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DUP overtaken by both the Ulster Unionists and TUV in latest poll…

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Bad news for the new DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson. A Lucid Talk poll for the Belfast Telegraph has the DUP on 13%, TUV 14% and UUP 16%. Sinn Fein is on 25%, the SDLP on 13% and Alliance on 13%. ..Two key results graphics from the Summer LT NI 'Tracker' poll, as published in today's Belfast Telegraph (@BelTel) – No. 1 is the party vote share scores in this poll, + No. 2 – the party vote share scores …

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The twin surges of the Alliance Party and the TUV threaten to redraw Northern Ireland’s electoral map

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Today’s LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph shows the Alliance Party and the TUV are continuing to gain support with the Northern Ireland electorate, with the DUP suffering a significant decline in support following the fallout from the row over the Irish Sea border. The latest LucidTalk NI Political-Party poll scores – LT NI 'Winter 2021' NI Tracker poll (2,295 responses NI-Wide – poll-period: 22/1 to 25/1/21), as covered in today's @BelTel.. pic.twitter.com/xoCdacCKOg — LucidTalk (@LucidTalk) February 1, 2021 The …

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IT Poll suggests pre-Christmas Brexit euphoria around Taoiseach is starting to wear off

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I’m generally not minded to bother readers with polls unless they tell us something new or challenging. Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI contains some details I think are well worth noting. Here are the headline figures… Not a lot of change in the general pattern (note that independents still sit on shrinking ground), though as Damian Loscher notes Sinn Féin is up three points to 22%, its highest rating in this poll since early 2016. He also notes that: Sinn Féin …

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Fine Gael benefit from their #Brexit hardball game…

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Here’s what the aggressive stance on the EU negotiations in general, and the DUP in particular has been all about. And it looks like its been working. This polling for the Irish Times was conducted last Monday. For once, it’s a statistically significant change, with FF definitely getting the worst of it… The poll, which was taken this week while the row over the breakdown of Brexit negotiations was raging, shows that Fine Gael has gained five points since the …

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Effects of #Brexit are likely to challenge every single party in Britain, bar the Tories…

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Now, take this British Election Survey with a modicum of salt. Particularly the visual graphics which, if you read them too directly, can be misleading. It’s complex, but the detail tells an interesting story. This is the tenth wave of a big survey with massive sample sizes that go way beyond the average polls. According to the notes: 7,351 respondents took all of the first 10 waves of the survey, 24.3% of respondents who originally took wave 1. Wave 10 was conducted by YouGov …

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