I’m generally not minded to bother readers with polls unless they tell us something new or challenging. Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI contains some details I think are well worth noting. Here are the headline figures… Not a lot of change in the general pattern (note that independents still sit on shrinking ground), though as Damian Loscher notes Sinn Féin is up three points to 22%, its highest rating in this poll since early 2016. He also notes that: Sinn Féin … Read more
Here’s what the aggressive stance on the EU negotiations in general, and the DUP in particular has been all about. And it looks like its been working. This polling for the Irish Times was conducted last Monday. For once, it’s a statistically significant change, with FF definitely getting the worst of it… The poll, which was taken this week while the row over the breakdown of Brexit negotiations was raging, shows that Fine Gael has gained five points since the … Read more
Now, take this British Election Survey with a modicum of salt. Particularly the visual graphics which, if you read them too directly, can be misleading. It’s complex, but the detail tells an interesting story. This is the tenth wave of a big survey with massive sample sizes that go way beyond the average polls. According to the notes: 7,351 respondents took all of the first 10 waves of the survey, 24.3% of respondents who originally took wave 1. Wave 10 was conducted by YouGov … Read more
It will be a good 12 years before my eldest child can vote, but already she, along with her younger sister, has come with me to the polling booth on two occasions. The third is looming large on the horizon. Quite possibly, it is only the children who get a day off due to their school transforming into a polling station who will benefit the most from this election. I certainly don’t see any benefit to it and am getting … Read more
The changes in the Republic from just a generation ago are profound. Today the Irish Times poll produces some remarkable figures showing support for abolition of the controversial Eight Amendment to the Irish Constitution, added in 1983 to prevent the casual legalisation of abortion in any form. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the … Read more
We don’t touch on every poll that comes out (and I’m not sure we even blogged Fianna Fail on 33%). [Hold on, Declan says you did! – Ed]. But this one is interesting if only in that it confirms that the loose political peloton formation that was such a feature of polls during the last government hasn’t gone away: Fine Gael, 26 per cent (up two points); Fianna Fáil, 26 per cent (down seven points); Labour, 5 per cent (no change); … Read more
The Evening Standard have a lot of detail in the latest Ipsos Mori poll. But the interesting bit lies in the fact that the Conservative party is still disliked by more people than like it (55%-38%), whilst the Labour has people evenly split between the two (45% – 46%). The real difference arises in the leaders’ ratings, with May’s positives (60%) towering over both her own negatives (33%) and that of her party’s (55%), whilst Corbyn’s are somewhat reversed with … Read more
One of the worse refractions of political light, as it comes across the border from the south to the north, is the illusion that somehow the southern electorate share the same obsessions and political outlook as those of us in Northern Ireland. For many northerners, southern politics did not really exist before the Sinn Fein expeditionary force began to should some fruit for it’s long and patient endeavour to seize power on both sides of the border. Accordingly, we tend … Read more
For those in the southern press who think a grand coalition is just grand, and imminent, I’m just putting this here… …more people favoured a Fianna Fail-led minority government (14pc), rising to 37pc of Fianna Fail supporters ahead, of a Fine Gael-led one (8pc), rising to 19pc of Fine Gael supporters. The poll also found that 70pc of people would vote the same way if a new election was called, rising to 82pc of Fianna Fail supporters, 83pc of Sinn … Read more
LEADER RATINGS – Back in October, Mike Nesbitt had the highest rating of the five party leaders. Peter Robinson languished behind, only ahead of Alasdair McDonnell. Fast forward five months and two leadership changes later, Arlene Foster is top of the polls. Though much less of a bounce for Colum Eastwood who should be worried that he’s rated alongside Arlene Foster in the eyes of nationalists and barely ahead of David Ford.
By the end of this week, the election will have run its full course. And yet it’s clear that the journalists are suffering that usual sense you get in Irish elections that they’re getting shut out of a conversation they aren’t privy to… Richard Downes takes you ‘behind the spin’ with this report tonight. #RTEPThttps://t.co/qeUnaAEqDW — RTÉ Prime Time (@RTE_PrimeTime) February 18, 2016 Another of these surprising constituency polls (-/+5%) came out in the week suggesting that Sinn Fein’s … Read more
So two polls yesterday. One, a national one for Red C which seems to unwind the apparent progress for Sinn Fein and drops the Fine Gael party just a little closer to that bulging political peloton in the bottom twenties… A further fall in support for Fine Gael in the latest Red C poll for @IrishSunOnline #GE16 pic.twitter.com/937777rfy0 — Fergal O’Brien TV3 (@FergalOBrienTV3) February 16, 2016 With don’t knows squeezed to 9% very few are being drawn to support any … Read more
As some of you will have noticed I have more or less given up reporting the polls in the south. Apart from a few blips, it’s pretty much been the same for much of the last 2/3 years. This morning’s Irish Times poll is no exception. Bear in mind that the error margin is -/+ 2.8% and there is no change here. These are the parameters of the election. When you factor in the randomising nature of PR STV multi … Read more
So the British Polling Council is publishing Professor Patrick Sturgis’ report “The Inquiry into the Failure of the 2015 Pre-election Polls…” It doesn’t look good for the pollsters… For the first time we may be getting a clear glimpse of just who the shy Tory voter is. It may be that they aren’t shy at all, more that they are just too busy working to answer the phone or say yes to a pollster’s enquiry. Here’s the thing, not only … Read more
DIGITAL POLITICS: The real genius of the Obama 08 campaign was twofold: clear and resonant messaging and effective party governance to ensure that the online campaign had concrete local effect. Who (if anyone) can pull those magic ingredients out of their Irish political rattlebag come the Irish General Election in February or March?
POLL SCRAMBLE: According to the latest Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times the main political peloton behind Fine Gael currently consists of independents, Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail. At the moment Fianna Fail’s only compensation here seems to be that their positions reverse somewhat when there is a sign of an election.
RTE/BBCNI Ireland’s Call survey 2015 from Slugger Consults Here’s an initial collation of the slides from last night’s programme, taken from what RTE and BBC NI have shared on their websites, and a couple of screenshots I took at the time. If you have any more do let me know and I will add them to a second iteration? There’s lots of yummy data in the overall survey, not least the indications just how happy everyone seems to be both … Read more
Just quickly to bring us up to date with the latest Red C poll… POLL: SBP/Red C (Mon-Wed, MoE ±3%) FG 30 (+2 in 6 weeks) Lab 7 (-3) FF 20 (+2) SF 16 Inds 20 (-4) Greens 2 Renua 2 AAA-PBP 1 SD 1 Others 1 — Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) October 24, 2015 Two notable things. One is the rise again of independents, which puts my working theory of ‘convergence’ severely to the test. As the new Social Democrat candidate for East Cork Ken Curtain notes: This #redc chart … Read more
Right, this is well worth a blog. “Sit up straight Mini Minister”… Note perfect from Oliver Callan on the divergent fortunes of Labour and Fine Gael in the persons of the ‘joint’ Finance Ministers in Dublin (Michael Noonan and Brendan Howlin) This is brilliant from @olivercallan RT @TodaySOR: A preview of Callan’s Kicks, tonight at 6.30pm https://t.co/aXmLLojscU — Sarah McInerney (@SarahAMcInerney) October 17, 2015 A snapshot from the latest poll should clarify matters, somewhat… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. … Read more
And as the week closes, here’s an interesting wee bit of business for the UUP leader Mike Nesbitt in Upper Bann… The Portadown Times published results from what it said was an “independent” poll ahead of May’s general election. But it failed to acknowledge that the survey had actually been commissioned by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Mr Nesbitt said the article “appears to have skewed” the election result. The article suggested that the gap in support between the DUP … Read more