Many of you will already have seen these results over the weekend… FG 27 (+3) (+6 since Dec), Lab 10 (+3) (+4 since Dec), FF 18 (=), SF 17 (-4) (-7 since Dec), Ind/Oth 28 (-2). [Ind 24, Grn 2, Ren 2], DK 13. — Richard Colwell (@REDCMD) March 28, 2015 The key change here is in the confirmation that the last Red C Poll (for Paddy Power) was indeed indicating a rising fortune for both Labour and Fine Gael. …
So here’s the latest poll in the south. In my reading there’s not a lot of change, but perhaps a slight hardening upwards of the government parties fortunes. Independent/others 27% (-3); Fine Gael 26% (+2); Sinn Féin 21% (-); Fianna Fáil 17% (-1) & Labour 9% (+2) No real change from the last time this poll was taken, but you’ve got to think that with the economic climate is starting to shift perceptively, there must be some play for government …
So the Millward Brown/Sunday Independent poll probably gives the most excitable readings of all the polls, so this one should be read with some caution. Just two weeks ago, though unreported here on Slugger (I plead boredom, for not having jumped) it showed SF in a sudden drop, now they have a severe bump: Sinn Fein 26% (up 5%%), Fine Gael 25% (+3%), Independents and Others 23% (down 9%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (up 1%). Sinn Fein most …
So, in Ireland the public volatility continues. Here’s the latest SPB poll… FG 22% (-4) LP 8% (NC) FF 18% (NC) SF 22% (+2) Ind/Small Parties 30% (+2) Judging by the reaction of Sinn Fein supporters on Twitter, a huge relief that the Cahill scandal has had not effect on its support (as is customary on here we’re treating a 2% rise as being safely margin of error). In fact their real source of delight has to be the continuing …
So here we are. After a relatively quiet summer poll-wise, Sinn Fein will enjoy a significant bounce on the eve of a byelection in Dublin West where they are joint favourites to pick up a seat… Even a look at the core figures confirms that they seem to be doing well at the expense of Fianna Fáil: The core vote for the parties – before undecideds are excluded – compared with the last poll was: Fine Gael, 19 per cent (up one …
“The best way to see the future is to observe the present…” – Carmin Medina I’ve an English friend who spent the last week of August on their regular family holiday in the highlands. He doesn’t have a vote but if he did he’d be a certain NO. One of things he found disturbing was having to decode the YES signs. At first he felt drawn towards it, only to feel a shudder of recognition when he thought about what it meant. There’s …
I recently spent ten days in Glasgow. My intention was to pick up the vibe on the YES side in my native city with particular emphasis on the Fifth Estate and the unofficial YES campaign. I found that there was plenty of it and on day one of my trip I was pulled into a voter registration stall in Buchanan Street in the city centre. It had been set up by some university students and they were all YES voters. …
Nice piece of analysis from John Curtice at What Scotland Thinks in which he notes the strong pro Yes dynamic in the polls of the last week, in contrast to the general stasis of much of the campaign heretofore. Their poll of polls processes the latest ‘gains’ for yes, and (excluding Don’t Knows) set the current rate at the tightest margin yet… He offers four key points… …the issue that above all seems capable of persuading people to vote Yes or …
I must admit that I struggle to see the dynamic middle ground in the debate over Scotland’s independence. There’s little doubt which campaign is the more dynamic. Just go to Pinterest and put in Scottish Referendum as a search term and you are dedazzled with a sea of Blue Saltired Yes graphics (try searching getty images too?), some of it highly creative. #136945596 / gettyimages.com Nicola Sturgeon has been preaching to large audience from Dumfries and Galloway up to Orkney …
So, two Irish polls this weekend. Not sure what to make of either of them to be honest, since there’s a divergence between them in FG’s rating of some 9%. The B&A poll in the Sunday Times has Fine Gael dropping like stone from 30% to 21%, whilst Sindo/Millward Brown has them on 29% (no change). Here’s the adjusted figures: Sunday Times/B&A poll: FG 21 (-9 since end Feb), FF 20 (+1), SF 20 (+2), Lab 9 (unchanged), Greens 4 …
Just a quick one, the Irish Times poll figures have some interesting if minor changes in the party fortunes in the south… …when undecided voters are excluded – compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fine Gael, 25 per cent (down five points); Labour, 8 per cent (down one point); Fianna Fáil, 25 per cent (up three points); Sinn Féin, 21 per cent (no change); and Independents/Others, 21 per cent (up three points). The core vote for the parties compared with the …
Former Fianna Fail spad Gerald Howlin’s take on the Red C Poll is worth reading in the Examiner today (if only for some useful historical context): A new seismic shift is under way. It is far greater than any that is gone before and it is far from over. It is still unclear if the general election of 2011 was the main shock or its precursor. Fianna Fáil’s once vast stock of political capital is irretrievably scattered. Labour’s is in …
The secret of politics as it is in comedy, is timing. Just over a month before the local elections in the south, it is Sinn Fein who’ve made the decisive move upwards in the polls. Today’s Red C poll sees a substantive rise in Sinn Fein’s rating: Fine Gael 26% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 22% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (up 5%), Labour Party 9% (down 2%), Independents, Green Party and Others 22% (NC) On the face of it all the …
So here’s the latest Red C poll: Fine Gael 28% (-1%) ; Labour 10% (-2%) ; Fianna Fail 22% (n/c) ; Sinn Fein 18% (+3%) ; Independents 22% (n/c) With European and local council elections coming up this year there is an opportunity for the political parties to lay down a political marker for the run in to the next general election which is currently thought most likely to be called late next year. Looking back to 2009 results there seems to be …
Stephen O’Brien published the Sunday Times Behaviour and Attitudes poll last night on Twitter… Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll FG 30% +5, FF 21% nc, Labour 11% nc, Sinn Fein 15% -3 Independent 21% -2, Greens 3% nc — Stephen O’Brien (@sob999) December 21, 2013 For the sake of long term perspective Electograph present those those figures against the 2011 election results: The ratings for party leaders are worth reflecting on. This are often misread as a popularity poll, …
So, the latest poll in the south. Just four things worth considering: 33% of those asked do not have a clear preference. This is an indication of the wider state of mind of the electorate. It probably poses the greatest challenge to Fianna Fail since it represents a large tranche of voters who appear to have turned their back on politics in Ireland since the party’s defenestration in February 2011. Independents have dropped five percentage points. This is an downturn …
Here’s the latest figures from the Irish Times Ipsos /MRBI poll… Fine Gael: 26% Sinn Féin: 23% Fianna Fáil: 22% Labour: 6% Greens: 2% Others/Ind: 21% Right about now is when Labour party activists should be hitting the panic like hell button. As Adrian Kavanagh notes, the party has not seen ratings like this in twenty five years, though it has to be said, the change is right on the margin of error. Labour’s absences, as noticed by Miriam Lord, …
You get a sense of why Nate Silver has annoyed politicians and pundits in the US when you have a look what he’s been saying in Edinburgh about a prospective Scottish Referendum whilst launching his book, The Signal and the Noise: In an interview with The Scotsman, Mr Silver said polling data was “pretty definitive”. “There’s virtually no chance that the Yes side will win”, he said. “If you look at the polls, it’s pretty definitive really where the No …
Looking like that bounce back for Fine Gael, was an outlier… Fine Gael has dropped one point to 26%, compared to 29% support for Fianna Fáil, a rise of two points. Labour’s support has fallen three points to 8% – while Sinn Féin has risen two points to 19% since the last poll in May. Support for independents and others has risen by one point to 19%. A high level of those polled are undecided, accounting for 34%. None of …
At the weekend, Fiach Kelly of the Irish Indo, noted that in the two weekend polls at the weekend, there was only one mover in one (RED C)… Fianna Fail is down from 26pc to 22pc, while Fine Gael is up from 26pc to 28pc, and back on top after a period when they were neck and neck. There were no changes in the ratings for Sinn Fein (17pc), Labour (12pc) or Independents (21pc). The poll by Red C for …
