Latest Red C Poll shows a shift towards government parties (and away from SF)

Many of you will already have seen these results over the weekend…

The key change here is in the confirmation that the last Red C Poll (for Paddy Power) was indeed indicating a rising fortune for both Labour and Fine Gael.

Now, Labour on ten percent is not going to get them much in any prospective election, but it is as much of a pyschological barrier going up as it was going down.

The real marker for Labour is to get sufficient seats in the next general election so as to be material to the composition of the next government. And on past form that may only three or four percentage points away now.

That they have been being consistently written off as playing any role in the next shake-out could play in their favour, especially post a budget in which the government looks set to undo some of its fiscal controls, and may have the means (as Stephen Kinsella notes) to buy the next election.

This should concern Sinn Fein more than other parties, since it is they more than anyone who have been ‘eating Labour alive’ in its heartland. Indeed, as Don’t Know voters appear to be coming off the fence, they seem to be ignoring both main opposition parties and plumping for government.

More worrying still for SF is that 7% downward trend over the last two Red C/Sunday Business Post polls.

I don’t think the matter is as simple as the damage caused by its odd stance on sexual abuse, but a combination of factors including its self presentation as the Irish Syriza, and its (almost unavoidable) espousal of the austerity agenda in Northern Ireland.

Fianna Fail remain utterly becalmed, and beset by a continuing loss of public voice. But its steadiness (and, ahead of generational change, lack of a credible rival to leader Micheal Martin) may prove to be a key underlying asset.

Polling has rarely shown FF above 21%, and yet its infrastructure appears capable of delivering significantly more. Less than a year ago it (quietly) became the largest party in local government.

Things are starting to get interesting again…

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  • barnshee

    Perhaps I should say “provide income”

    A short list from a more substantial list
    A Maskey
    M Oneill
    M Brady

    perhaps you could advise me of their careers/ Cv`s?
    PS the list is not exclusive to SF

  • Robin Keogh

    Neither did Madonna

  • Robin Keogh

    Try Google

  • Robin Keogh

    So?

  • Robin Keogh

    Lovely in depth analysis Cue, and two full sentences…well done lad

  • Cue Bono

    How can you talk about SF having a social conscience when their supporters beat people to death with iron bars? Breaking every bone in a man’s body? How can you talk about them having a social conscience when they gut a man in the street and their supporters claim to have seen nothing because they were all in the toilet? How can you talk about SF having a social conscience when their members rape children and are then spirited away and hidden by their leadership? How can you talk about SF having a social conscience when their armed wing was resposible for the cold blooded sectarian murders of hundreds of people?

    I look forward to your in depth analysis Robin.

  • Robin Keogh

    There are thugs out there for sure, many of them thankfully are locked up, sadly some are not, they get away scot free. Nevertheless a political party cant be held responsible for the actions of free citizens. Who a thug chooses to vote for or support is completely out of the control of politicians no matter what party they belong to. In terms of your allegations regarding child rape, SF position is clear , anybody with info on such things be they party affiliated or not, have a responsibility to go to the authorities with such information. As it stands, i am unaware of any SF member who has been accused of rape or indeed arrested for rape, if they have please enlighten us all.

    You may want to try and convince yourself that the 200 SF elected representatives in this country, the 18 thousand members and the half a million voters are all up to their collective necks in the behaviour you describe, however the truth is a million miles away from it. The issue here is not SF or criminality, the issue here Cue is your blind hate, your irrational hysterics and your absolute inability to move on from events of the past, with the majority of the 6.2 Million people in this country.

    SF social conscience is shown in the work their representatives do on the ground, be it agitating for minority rights, fighting for those on lower incomes and rejecting the failed capitalist policies that have sent one third of our children into or close to poverty. SF supports and campaigns for the rights of women, marraige equality, educational opportunity and a fair days pay for a fair days work. The Shinner you see in your head is nothing like the shinner most people see in their workplace and on their street. Social fairness and equality is the driving force behind the SF movement. You don’t believe that, fine, you dont have to believe it, half a million people do and they will not be let down.

  • Croiteir

    So what?

  • Robin Keogh

    So what so what ?

  • Croiteir

    so what so what so what

  • Robin Keogh

    I like Averil Power

  • barnshee

    So no qualifications or experience other than sucking on the (UK) taxpayers teat?