Lab + SF + GP = FF + FG – 2%

There had been rumours that tomorrows Red C opinion poll for the Sun would produce a surprise (partly because it is a party poll rather than leader poll). It will be tomorrow before we get the details (date of polling, methodology etc). But Matt Cooper (TodayFM) leaked the figures earlier on his radio show – FG 32%, Lab 24%, SF 16%, FF 13%, Greens 3%, others 11%. Many will spin that, post-Donegal SW, SF are merely getting a positive bounce, while ignoring the potential disruption in the standard political formula of FF + variables versus FG + variables. If you add up the result here and place FF and FG against the leftish parties of Labour, SF and the Greens, the lead is only 2%.

It’s only an opinion poll, but, the dynamics of public debate could shift markedly if it appears that a government could be formed without Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. Such a thing has been unthinkable in the past, but we are living in very very interesting times at the moment.