Fine Gael retain lead in Red C poll

The latest SBP/RedC poll shows a surge for Labour although less than the Irish Times poll from a fortnight ago. Fine Gael retain a healthy lead and FF languishing on a steady 24%. David has the detail on politics.ie:

FF 24% (NC) FG 33% (+3) LAB 27% (+5) Greens 2% (-3) http://pie.ly/cln4Le

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  • Paddy Matthews

    27% for Labour is a very strong performance by RedC’s standards. 33% probably puts off the next FG heave for, oh, another month or so.

    Other figures:

    SF 8% (-2)

    Who should be Taoiseach:
    Kenny 29%
    Gilmore 40%
    Cowen 18%

  • slug

    Sinn Fein could add up to 3 seats based on that result,

  • Alias

    A substantial rise in support for FG after that party leader put the boot into the Shinners. Oh dear… how upsetting that must be for Shinner hacks.

    Of course, the rise in support for FG is unrelated to the Enda Kenny’s comment about the Shinners existing as the political wing of an organised crime/murder gang since political affairs in NI are of no relevance to Irish voters.

  • Cormac Mac Art

    Kenny’s did himself no harm by that remark. He can afford to do so because of SF’s weakining position in the Dail, and it bolstered his tender image.
    That, plus his summery action with the FG rebels, shows he didn’t get to be leader of the party for nothing.

    However, he will need more of the same if he is to overcome the public’s preference for Gilmore as next Taoiseach.

    I’m not suprised the opposition are doing this well, but they need to make a lot more ground to overwhelmingly defeat FF in the next election. And that’s the only poll that counts.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Slug,

    how do you reckon that?

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Cormac Mac Art,

    Next time around if he needed SF votes (which I agree would be unlikely) it would have been amusing to watch Enda wriggling on the army council issue.

    If Enda is simply experiencing a bit of dead cat bounce (which I suspect he is) then Labour will continue to go up in the polls and SF may come back into the equation without FG (which again I agree is unlikely) but SF will probably hold on to the ‘army council’ card, as like decomssioning, it is always handy to have something that people will trade for going into negotiations.

    FF will also change their leader before the election, provided the whold shakey (and discredited) edifice is not blown over before they can re-organise themselves.

  • smcgiff

    This tends to show how flawed the IT poll results after adjustments were, especially for Labour. And to think that triggered a leadership putsch.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    smcgiff,

    The Poll was the trigger but clearly not the cause.

  • madra rua

    Labour have no infrastructure whatsoever outside the main population centres.
    The backwoods Fianna Failers will continue voting for the person that will organize “a lick of tar on the road outside”.
    Sinn Féin have been the authors of their own downfall by ditching the hardworking, left wing, “old guard” in Dublin.
    Their inability to withstand Bertie’s pressurising them into supporting the crazy Bank Guarantee will not be forgotten by people on left.

  • Cormac Mac Art

    the thing is, I can’t see how it can be used as a negociation card, at least not down here. Its not see as anything but a crippling disconnect to most voters.

  • Cormac Mac Art

    Given that much of the Irish population is now urban, that might not be a disadvantage.

    True. But the recession will make those numbers smaller.

    Both old and new espouse the IRA, which was always a problem in attracting voters.

  • slug

    Its as much based on the fall of FF as the rise of SF; there are 2 or 3 constituencies where it looks certain SF can pick up when FF fall this far.

  • Cormac Mac Art

    Really? Where?

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    SFs core vote couldnt give a fiddlers about the army council which is just a get together for a few old pals and if someone (FG,FF, Labour) wants shot of it then that will come at a price.

  • Cormac Mac Art

    How so? Of all the parties, SF and FG are the ones most apart. Any shots, cheap or otherwise, won’t cost either side much.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Cormac Mac Art,

    “How so?”

    I was speculating about FG needing SF’s votes – FG would demand public winding up of the army council and SF would probably agree and extract a price.

    They may as well hang onto it for the time being as it allows them to diss FG from time to time as well – which is always popular with their target market.

  • Cormac Mac Art

    Sammy – Perhaps. Its a smart idea. However, SF’s capacity for gaining votes down here will always remain limited because of their immediate history and northern base.

    Dissing FG is all well and good, but SF’s target market remains north of the border, where no-one votes for a TD anyway. SF have reached their high-watermark down here; if they are go become a real player in our politics they will have to radically change; dogma, leadership, name, the lot.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Cormac,

    I was referring to their (Southern) target market – the North is more or less in the bag. Their targets apart from grabbing a couple more border seats(especilally something in Donegal) is working class areas particulalrly in Dublin which they had some momentum in but have lost by admitting that they were more social democratic than socialist. The socialist bit was always an ideology of convenience which suited Adams an Co when it was still popular in the 80s.