Philip McGuinness

Sir Kier Starmer’s speech on Monday morning painted an almost apocalyptic picture of the future of his country, were he to be ousted from the Prime Ministership. He said “our country will go down a dark path”. Referencing the gains by Reform UK and the Greens, he stated that Labour is “battling the despair upon which they prey”. “Change cannot come quick enough”. “People need hope”. “Incremental change won’t cut it”. Starmer described “a battle for the soul of our …

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Last year’s ARINS/Irish Times polling found that the vast majority of Northern Ireland’s voters are reconciled to living in a future that most of them would prefer not to happen. In essence, reconciliation has been achieved. However, reunification appears stuck. Since 2022, the last 13 polls have averaged 58-42 in favour of remaining in the UK, excluding undecideds. The high point in the polls for reunification was in 2020-21, though still 54-46 pro-Remain. (Graph 1, below. I wrote an article …

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This article is also in English Ba cheart go mbeadh meas comhionann ar na trí theanga dúchasacha, a Uachtaráin Ní Chonghaile. Dúirt Caitríona Ní Chonghaile – an deichiú Uachtarán na hEireann – é seo, ina hóráid insealbhaithe i gCaisleán Bhaile Átha Cliath De Máirt 11ú Samhain: Tír gan teanga, tír gan anam, agus is fíor sin, mar nuair atá a teanga múchta, ní féidir leis an tír, nó aon tír, a mianta, a luachanna nó a spioraid a chur in …

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I recently wrote in Slugger how “the vast majority of Northern Ireland’s voters are reconciled to living in a future that most of them would prefer not to happen.” That article suggested that a PR-STV direct election for First and Deputy First Ministers would force the major parties to reach out to more moderate voters for transfers rather than relying only on voters in their own exclusivist support base. In this article, I want to explore the implications of NI …

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According to the Irish government’s Shared Ireland Initiative (SII) website, “The new Programme for Government agreed in January 2025 commits a further €1 billion to the Shared Island Fund up to 2035 to foster reconciliation, mutual respect and growth”. The Shared Island Initiative has contributed to economic development in many areas of Northern Ireland. Examples include: the Ulster Canal, Narrow Water Bridge, the A5, Casement Park, Battle of the Boyne site, Carlingford Greenway, and the UU campus in Derry. These …

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An Taoiseach, Mícheál Martin, recently asked “can we share this piece of ground together in a harmonious way that involves real sustainable peace and friendliness for generations to come?”1 The answer is a resounding yes, according to recent surveys. Recent ARINS surveys asked Northerners their opinion on either remaining in the United Kingdom or reunifying with the South. Some 95 per cent of Catholics are reconciled to remaining (either ‘not happy, but could live with it’ or ‘happily accept’). For …

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Sam McBride had an excellently thought-provoking article this week arguing for a new flag for Northern Ireland in the Belfast Telegraph “Why stars are aligning for a new flag of Northern Ireland”. I was particularly struck by this passage: … the very fact that the flag itself was new would free it from the bondage of history. It would immediately be shorn of the baggage of older symbols used in a thousand unedifying ways. Some unionist baulk at this, believing …

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This article is also in English Ní mhíníonn Breatimeacht fás marbhánta ghéilleagar na RA. Tá na seanimpireachtaí ag streachailt go cothrom. Scríobh Obelisk píosa maith ar na mallaibh faoi Brexit and the illusion of control. Seo cúpla graf a léiríonn go bhfuil géilleagair na Ríochta Aontaithe ag dul ar gcúl i gcomparáid le tíortha bheaga thofa ón Aontas Eorpach (tíortha níos lú agus níos aclaí). Obelisk wrote an interesting and thought-provoking piece recently about Brexit and the illusion of control. …

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Updated to add graphs excluding NILT/Liverpool datasets. More opinion poll data from LucidTalk in the Belfast Telegraph (February 24th 2025), suggesting that 48% of their NI sample wish to remain in the UK (“Remain”) and 41% wish for a reunified Ireland (“Reunify”). This follows hard on the heels of a recent ARINS poll in the Irish Times (Ipsos) (48% remain in UK; 34% reunify). When we exclude the don’t knows or won’t vote percentages, we find that the Remain – …

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This article is also in English Conas a bhfuair aontachtas an lámh in airde ar náisiúnachas i 2024 i gcomparáid le 2023? Tá páipéar taighde foilsithe agam (san iris Irish Studies in International Affairs {an iris ina bhfoilsitear taighde ARINS}). Rinne mé anailís chun a fháil amach cén fáth a bhain amach níos mó vótaí ag iarrthóirí aontachtacha san olltoghchán Mainistir Thiar (2024W) i gcomparáid le iarrthóirí náisiúnachacha. Tharla a mhalairt sna toghcháin áitiúla i 2023 (2023L). Na céatadáin vótaíochta …

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Watching the results on RTÉ on Sunday, a different story of Election 2024 emerged, compared to Saturday’s narrative. The exit poll ranked Sinn Féin first and Fianna Fáil third, whereas the opposite was the case for the actual vote. Fine Gael was second in both exit poll and in reality. This exit poll sent commentators down some fruitless rabbit holes early on, where spin replaced analysis. Democratic governments around the world will wonder how our political system is so stable, …

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This article is also in English Cén toradh is dóichí a bheidh ar thoghchán Dála 2024? Tá an t-am vótála sroichte anois. Cad é an toradh is dóichí? B’fhéidir go bhfuil mé ag cur mo chloigeann ar an mbloc, ach táim chun mo mhuineál a chloí amach agus réamhaisnéis a dhéanamh. Seo réamhfhaisnéis a bhfuil bunaithe ar anailís ar na 43 Dáilcheantar. Níl sé chomh furasta ach céadtadáin pobalbhreithe na bpáirtithe polaitíochta a chur i bhfeidhm ar na 174 suíochán. …

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This article is also in English Ag meath pholaitíocht nimhneach: tá córas thoghchánach Mhainistir Thiar níos chionmhairí de dhith orainn. Cúpla mí ó shin, scríobh mé – comhúdar leis an Ollamh Brendan O’Leary – alt san Irish Times, ag déanamh anailís faoin dtoghchán Mainistir Thiar i mbliana. Cuireadh béim ansin cé chomh neamh-chothromach atá an córas thoghchánach ‘faigheann-buaiteoir-barraíocht’ (FBB) i gcomhréir leis an gcéatadán de votaí (tábla figiúirí thíos). Is córas thoghchán fíor-fhrithdaonlathach é seo. Spreagann FBB i gcroi na …

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This is my first attempt at a bilingual posting, which explores the 2021 census and 2023 local elections to analyse whether there is a close connection between religion and identity. (Easy subject material: I know you know the answers already!) I haven’t written publicly in Irish before. I don’t have a degree in Irish, so my text will have mistakes (apologies in advance; but do post to let me know). I have written this in Irish first. I am not …

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Introduction: I recently published a paper in the ARINS section of the Royal Irish Academy journal Irish Studies in International Affairs (ISIA). My paper analysed transfers from Alliance and the Green Party for all Assembly elections (7) and local elections (also 7) between 1997 and 2023. The vote share of these two parties combined has increased from 4.1% in the 2003 Assembly election to 15.0% in the 2023 local elections. The nationalist bloc share has inched slightly upwards from 42.1% …

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Politics in Northern Ireland will only work when voters are more important than parties.                                        *** The past seven years have demonstrated that, to mis-quote King Lear, “as flies to wanton parties are we to the Gods, they ungovern us for their sport’. The two major parties should not, at will, be able to topple the architecture of administration to further their monochrome and mutually-exclusive aims. Neither unionist nor nationalist is the majority identity in NI. If the DUP wish the …

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The Green Party TD, Patrick Costello – a member of the Oireachtas Good Friday Agreement Committee – recently suggested that the 12th of July should become a public holiday in the South as a way of uniting “all the peoples of this island”. There is no significant political or civil society grouping in the Irish Republic who disagree with uniting all the peoples of this island. But there are significant implications for such a proposal given the nature of the …

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(Part 1 can be found here.) (Part 2 can be found here.) Identity bloc performance The nationalist bloc is the largest in 13 of the 15 border EAs (excepting Erne North and Cusher), having overtaken the unionist bloc in Faughan and Clogher Valley. Eight of the 11 EAs that touch Lough Neagh are now N-bloc plurality or majority, including four east of the Bann. East/west of the Bann has limited relevance as geographical shorthand to describe relative political dominance in …

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