This article is also in English
Cén toradh is dóichí a bheidh ar thoghchán Dála 2024?
Tá an t-am vótála sroichte anois. Cad é an toradh is dóichí? B’fhéidir go bhfuil mé ag cur mo chloigeann ar an mbloc, ach táim chun mo mhuineál a chloí amach agus réamhaisnéis a dhéanamh. Seo réamhfhaisnéis a bhfuil bunaithe ar anailís ar na 43 Dáilcheantar. Níl sé chomh furasta ach céadtadáin pobalbhreithe na bpáirtithe polaitíochta a chur i bhfeidhm ar na 174 suíochán.
It’s voting time! What is the likely result? I’m going out on a limb, but we all love a forecast. Mine is based upon looking at the 43 Dáil constituencies, rather than converting opinion poll percentages to a proportion of the 174 seats.
Dáilcheantair nua, 14 suíochán breise, TDanna nach bhfuil ag seasamh arís, straitéisí iarrthóirí páirtí (thar cionn nó amhrasach), agus tionchar saincheisteanna áitiúla: nuair a measctar iad seo chomh maith le feachtas toghcháin náisiúnta, beidh streachailt laochúil gladatóireach i ndán dúinn an deireadh seachtaine seo chugainn agus na boscaí oscailte.
New constituencies, 14 extra seats, retiring outgoing TDs, brilliant and dubious party candidate strategies, and the impact of local issues: all of these are thrown into the mix of a national election and will lead to an nirvanaic orgy of number-crunching for psephological nerds this weekend.
Ní raibh ach 160 suíochán sa thoghchán 2020. Chun gnóthacháin agus caillteanais suíocháin a mheas, caithimid toradh 2020 a mheas da mba rud é go raibh 174 suíochán i gceist.
There were 160 seats in the 2020 election. Party strengths were estimated, had there been 174 seats to be filled in 2020. This allows gains and losses for Friday’s election to be estimated.
| Páirtí / Party | Toradh 2020 (160 suíochán) / 2020 result (160 seats) | Toradh 2020 (dá mbeadh 174 suíochán) / 2020 result (if 174 seats) | Mo réamhfhaisnéis 2024 (174 suíochán) / My 2024 forecast (174 seats) | Athrú measta suíocháin idir 2020 agus 2024 / Estimated seats change 2020-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (Warriors of Destiny) | 38 | 41 | 46 | +5 |
| Fine Gael (The Irish Tribe) | 35 | 38 | 44 | +6 |
| Sinn Féin (We Ourselves) | 37 | 40 | 37 | -3 |
| Páirtí an Lucht Oibre (Labour Party) | 6 | 7 | 9 | +2 |
| Comhaontas Glas (Green Party) | 12 | 13 | 5 | -8 |
| Daoine Roimh Brabús – Dlúthpháirtíocht (People Before Profit – Solidarity) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Éire Neamhspleách (Independent Ireland) | n/a | n/a | 5 | +5 |
| Daonlaithe Sóisialta (Social Democrats) | 6 | 7 | 3 | -4 |
| Aontú (Unification) | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| Lucht na Neamhsplách ar Son Athrú (Independents for Change) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ceart chun Athrú (Right to Change) | n/a | n/a | 0 | 0 |
| Lucht na Neamhsplách (Independents) | 19 | 21 | 17 | -4 |
Is é 88 tromlach na súiochán. Faigheann na páirtithe móra bónas suíocháin, de thairbhe cuóta 16.7-25.0% a bhaint amach. Maidir leis na figiúirí seo, tá seans ann go mbeadh tromlach ag FF agus FG.
With 174 seats, 88 is a majority. The bigger parties usually get a seat bonus, as constituencies are 3-, 4-, or 5-seaters. Therefore, the quotas are, respectively, 25.0%, 20.0%, or 16.7%. According to my estimate, there is a good chance that FF and FG will have a majority between them.
Muna mbeadh tromlach ag FF agus FG, tá taithí mór ag FF agus FG ag obair le Páirti an Lucht Oibre ó 1932. Bheadh Ivana Bacik faoi bhrú ollmhór sa chás sin. Má théann Páirti an Lucht Oibre i gcomhrialtas le FF agus FG, gan na Daonlaithe Sóisialta, caillfear seans gluaiseacht forásach eite-chlé – nach bhfeictear go bhfuil baint aici le foréigéan na dTrioblóidí – a chruthú. Gluaiseacht a bhfuil suim aici in athaonthú na hÉireann (de réir a gcuid manifestóanna); gluaiseacht a bheadh tarraingteach do vótálaithe Alliance agus SDLP agus, b’fhéidir, sciar suntasach vótálaithe Shinn Féin.
If FF and FG don’t gain a majority, both parties have 92 years’ experience of working with Labour in government-formation. Ivana Bacik will come under huge pressure in that case. If Labour enters into coalition with FF and FG, without the Social Democrats, the chance of creating a progressive centre-left movement – that has no perceived links to the violence of the Troubles – will have been lost. Such a movement would be interested in reunification (going by the manifestos of the two parties); and would be attractive to both Alliance and SDLP voters, and probably also to a significant proportion of SF voters.
Mar sin, ceannaigí do rogha bia is deoch, suígí síos agus ligigí do chuid scíth. Cruthófar agus scriosfar gairmeacha polaitiúla le linn an deireadh seachtaine. Agus bígí buíoch go bhfuil córas toghcháin cothrom againn: córas a spreagann iarrthóirí a bheith measartha sibhialta lena chéile agus iad ag súil le haistrithe a fháil. PR-STV abú!
So stock up, sit back and watch the cheers and tears as political careers are made and unmade. And thank whoever you pray to that we have a fair election system that encourages candidates to be relatively civil to each other. Long may we have transferable voting.
Philip McGuinness taught at Dundalk Institute of Technology, plays mandolin with the Oriel Traditional Orchestra and loves to walk around and over the wee perfect hills of the Ring Of Gullion.
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