Philip McGuinness

Northern Ireland at 100: Unionism failing; Nationalism stuck; Moderates thriving…

Philip McGuinness on April 27, 2021, 8:00 am

| Readers 4086

One hundred years after Partition, Northern Ireland is still in existence. It would surely come as a big surprise to many who thronged the streets of Belfast on June 22nd 1921 – the date King George V opened the first NI Parliament in City Hall – that unionism is now a minority in Stormont. It would also surely come as a big surprise to many nationalists in 1972 that the state set up to guarantee unionist rule in north-east Ireland …

A Song for a Shared Island…

Philip McGuinness on July 28, 2020, 7:32 am

| Readers 765

There are many conversations happening across the island about what a shared island might look like. Talking is vitally important but so, too, is singing. What might a shared island sound like? To be emotionally carried along by – and to sing along with – a beautiful song that appeals to the more noble, inclusive and generous parts of our common humanity is one of the greatest creative acts we can experience. Is there a song that encapsulates the desire …

Time to Reform First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) for Westminster Elections?

Philip McGuinness on June 30, 2020, 8:47 am

| Readers 1484

In the 2019 Westminster general election in Northern Ireland, the 18 successful candidates gained 359,000 votes out of a valid poll of 799,034. This represents only 44.9% of the electorate. A clear majority of voters are not represented in Westminster. Unionist voters in border areas are not represented; nationalist voters from North Antrim to Upper Bann to Strangford are not represented. Twice as many Alliance voters are unrepresented as are represented. The DUP garnered 30.6% of the vote and won …

COVID-19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Dublin’s success will pose dilemmas for both SF and Unionists:

Philip McGuinness on May 5, 2020, 7:09 am

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Number-crunching the past few days’ COVID-19 statistics is bringing clearer evidence by the day that RoI seems to have definitively turned a corner in its struggle against this frightening adversary. If we define ‘peak covid’ as the date when a jurisdiction had its largest 7-day rolling average of new cases, we find that peak covid occurred on April 15th for the UK, April 18th for the RoI, and April 20th for NI. The graph shows the 7-day rolling averages since …

COVID-19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Four stories in the Republic:

Philip McGuinness on April 28, 2020, 7:22 am

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We are a small island, but the story of the COVID-19 pandemic is being written differently in each county. The four graphs added to COVIDWATCH show these differing narratives. Continuous data for Northern Ireland councils were not available (when this data is available it will be displayed). One of the graphs is shown above. Methodology: New cases can vary hugely within a couple of days. These huge undulations can hide underlying trends. A 7-day rolling average will allow to some …

COVID-19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Early clusters difficult to flatten:

Philip McGuinness on April 21, 2020, 12:39 pm

| Readers 3088

The COVID-19 cases for April 20th have been used to draw two maps: one showing the rate of incidence of counties and councils relative to their jurisdictional average, and the other showing the rate of change over the April 15-20 period. The ‘rate of incidence’ map shows essentially the same pattern as did the earlier two maps (for April 9/10 and April 15). Once a county or council got off to a bad start with respect to the number of …

COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Cases Rates of Change by County and Council:

Philip McGuinness on April 16, 2020, 6:43 am

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The rate of increase of Covid19 cases on the island seems to be slowing down in the greater Dublin and Belfast metropolitan areas. However, Donegal and Derry & Strabane have had a large rate of increase, as have Monaghan and Roscommon. Also, commuter-belt counties around Dublin-Wicklow have also had increases greater than average. Dublin, Wicklow, Belfast, Lisburn & Castlereagh, Cavan, Westmeath, and Monaghan are the only counties or councils whose cases per head of the population is above their jurisdictional …

COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: The Geography of COVID19 in Ireland

Philip McGuinness on April 13, 2020, 6:35 am

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The map below displays how your county or council is doing in terms of COVID19 cases, relative to the jurisdictional average for COVID19 cases. The approach taken is to work out a county’s /council’s share of its jurisdictional population, and then work out its share of jurisdictional Covid19 cases, then divide this ‘case’ percentage by the population percentage. That will tell us whether the county/council is above or below average. <br> The map shows how the greater Dublin and Belfast …

COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Both Irelands possibly plateauing for new cases; NI death rate less bad than RoI’s; Global situation: disimprovement:

Philip McGuinness on April 9, 2020, 6:39 am

| Readers 3916

The deaths per million curves for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland continue to flatten. New cases appear to have stabilised somewhat.The Republic of Ireland has 71.96% of the island’s population, but 75.58% of the COVID19-related deaths. This divergence has increased in recent days. Is the better performance of the North regarding COVID19-related deaths a function of having the NHS rather than the two-tier system in the South? Simon Coveney seemed to be essentially accepting this when he stated …

COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: An Improving Picture in Ireland and the World; Not So Good in Great Britain and USA:

Philip McGuinness on April 6, 2020, 7:47 am

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The latest figures show that, despite the divergent public health approach of the UK compared to the WHO recommendations, the Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland COVID19 death rates for April 5th are very similar. Northern Ireland has 28.04% of the island’s population, and it has 28.51% of the island’s COVID19-related deaths. Moreover, Northern Ireland’s ‘deaths per million of the population’ and ‘cumulative cases per million of the population’ curves are flattening at a rate similar to the South. And …

COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Good News Down South; Bad News Up North

Philip McGuinness on March 30, 2020, 8:51 am

| Readers 3387

Northern Ireland: Deaths per million curve steepens. New cases getting closer to the Southern new cases. Total cases appears to be doubling roughly every 4 days now. Republic of Ireland: New cases (200) only very slightly above new cases 10 days ago (190). New cases drop: the lowest number of new cases for six days. None of the other countries on these graphs have had a 10-day ‘stasis’ and then returned to steepening behaviour. Could we be on a 6-day …

COVID19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Updated Daily Graphs

Philip McGuinness on March 28, 2020, 2:18 pm

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I am collecting the daily statistics for cases and deaths due to COVID19 on a daily basis for both Irish jurisdictions, the UK, the USA, China, South Korea and Italy. Updated graphs can be seen at http://mysql02.comp.dkit.ie/mcguinnp/covid19/. Graphs show “Deaths per million of the population” (Northern Ireland doing worryingly badly in this regard; Republic of Ireland approaching the Italy curve); “New cases per day” (lack of testing in NI resulting in low figures); “Cumulative cases per million of the population” …