New opportunities for all-Ireland centre-left politics after the 2024 Dáil election

Watching the results on RTÉ on Sunday, a different story of Election 2024 emerged, compared to Saturday’s narrative. The exit poll ranked Sinn Féin first and Fianna Fáil third, whereas the opposite was the case for the actual vote. Fine Gael was second in both exit poll and in reality. This exit poll sent commentators down some fruitless rabbit holes early on, where spin replaced analysis.

Democratic governments around the world will wonder how our political system is so stable, with less identitarian bitterness compared to the UK, USA, France or Germany. The answer surely lies in our multi-seat PR-STV electoral voting system. With at least eight parties – at time of writing – represented, we are psephologically promiscuous. Yet we are serial monogamists as regards our governments: since 1992 the average Dáil has lasted for 4½ years. Yes, we elect a lot of non-party candidates, but many of these have offered stability in the past 30 years to minority governments.

Given the increase in Dáil seats from 160 to 174, a party that returns with the same number of seats has actually suffered a decrease. Sinn Féin looks likely to return with roughly the same number of seats. That represents an essential decrease in its seat performance. SF’s vote suffered its biggest decrease (-5.5%) in the South since 1927. Almost a quarter of its 2020 vote deserted them. Sinn Féin’s vote share decrease on Friday was greater than the Green Party’s decrease of -4.1%. When Thomas Gould was elected for SF in Cork North-Central on Sunday afternoon, his supporters hoisted him aloft as they sang “we’re on the one road, we’re on the road to God knows where”. How SF creates a roadway to its version of unity is a question amplified by its disappointing performance.

Vote share change in Dáil elections since 2007:

Disgruntled suburban voters moved towards the Social Democrats (SD) and, to some extent, Labour. One is struck by the energy emanating from Labour and SD candidates and activists in media interviews. I had seriously underestimated the SD’s seat total in an earlier article. (I had thought that Holly Cairns’s absence from the campaign {congratulations to her}, and a largely anonymous contribution to the 10-party-leader debate on RTÉ by the SD’s deputy leader, would have blunted their appeal. I was most definitely wrong. The SD’s social media presence was, by all accounts, very effective.)

Fianna Fáil’s – and Fine Gael’s – vote share both dropped ever-so-slightly. Thus, all three government parties saw a vote share decrease. Voters were not impressed with being bribed by their own money in the recent giveaway budget. However, there is no evidence that FF and FG are on an irreversible downward trajectory to oblivion. Yes, they will be disappointed with their performance, but Fine Gael will be a transformed, mostly youthful, party with its influx of new TDs. Fianna Fáil has a secure foothold now in Dublin, compared to only one seat in 2011.

Critics of FF and FG (those who liberally sprinkle ‘FFG’ and ‘Free State’ in their pronouncements) would do well to remember two things. Firstly, such language might resonate with some of NI’s electorate, but it does not resonate at all in the South for more than 80% of the electorate, and many people find it irrelevant, insulting, partitionist, and off-putting as regards reunification. Secondly, a sizeable number of Independent TDs have either a FF/FG ‘gene-pool’ or ‘gene-pool-offspring’ background (for example, Michael Lowry or Mattie McGrath or the Healy-Raes). So, while ‘Civil War’ politics looks to have gained only 42.7% of the vote, when you add the gene-pool vote share, that figure probably increases by another 3-4%. (Sometimes it is forgotten that SF, with Lloyd George, created the Free State; and that the 1922-23 Civil War was SF vs. SF. {FF and FG were founded, respectively, in 1926 and 1933.} )

Independent Ireland (II) has had a successful election. They are the largest party in Roscommon-Galway and Cork South-West. One can imagine an II – Aontú – ‘some Independents’ alliance to reconfigure the political voice of rural disgruntlement, and gain more seats in the next election.

Where does this leave government formation? There are still many seats up for grabs, but a FF-FG coalition, with goodies liberally distributed in FF/FG gene-pool constituencies, should secure enough Independent TD support to give a 95ish majority, about 15 ahead of other TDs.

How will politics look in the South after this election? Fine Gael is on course to be the longest-ever continuously-serving government party, should the new coalition last until 2029. That 18-year stretch would comfortably beat de Valera’s Fianna Fáil 1932-1948 hegemony, or the de Valera-Lemass 1957-1973 FF dominance. Fianna Fáil will probably have a new leader if Mícheál Martin decides to go for the Presidency in 2025. (As the most-preferred Taoiseach, according to the RTÉ/IT exit poll, he should be a shoo-in for that position). The Harris-Chambers-Cairns troika of young party leaders will make the McDonald-Doherty Sinn Féin leadership begin to look tired.

Will Dublin’s attitude towards the North change? Unlikely. Martin and Harris have not made any significant mis-steps with the Northern parties, and they both have a good working relationship with Hilary Benn and Keir Starmer. Expect the Shared Ireland Unit to continue to grow. Neither party leader will be pushing for a border poll.

There are now five hegemonic political regions on the island of Ireland: Belfast-in-Antrim (Sinn Féin), north Down (Alliance), east-of-the-Bann (DUP), rest-of-Ulster & north Leinster (SF mostly), and rest-of-Ireland (FF/FG mostly). The map shows that neither SDLP, Labour nor SD are pre-eminent in any constituency (I exclude Westminster elections because many voters vote tactically then). Paradoxically, this opens up a chance for a new centre-left movement on both sides of the border.

Should the new Dublin government exclude Labour and the Social Democrats, those two parties will share that exclusionary position with the SDLP. This gives these three parties a unique opportunity to dramatically transform politics on this island, untrammelled by the shackles of governing. There are no substantive political differences – apart from the obvious jurisdictionally-induced complexities – between these three centre-left parties. More importantly, they all desire a peacefully-achieved pluralist reunified island. They are not perceived as having any association with violence. SD, L, and SDLP …. even the names are similar.

Such a new party would have an appeal well beyond the sum of the three parties’ votes. It would appeal to many younger voters in the South. It would appeal to a sizeable proportion of Alliance voters who are interested in reunification but who shy away from a SF-led united Ireland. Are these three parties willing to think beyond their own part of Ireland and embrace all-island progressive politics that will appeal to Catholic, Protestant and Dissenter? Partition has always been problematic for the centre-left. But now they have time to transcend: the next Assembly election is not until 2027.

Philip McGuinness

Philip McGuinness taught at Dundalk Institute of Technology, plays mandolin with the Oriel Traditional Orchestra and loves to walk around and over the wee perfect hills of the Ring Of Gullion.