Why Sinn Fein’s Long March was halted in the south…

Fascinating final analysis from WorldbyStorm of the general failure of the left in the Republic’s elections, and Sinn Fein’s failure to capitalise on it’s achievement of power in Northern Ireland. He targets the party’s ruthlessly pragmatic abandonment of leftist policy, in the immediate run up to the election (here’s the latest clarification of how the party stands on the southern economy). Maybe people don’t want the left in power, but they want it to act as joker and conscience to …

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Mansion House cancelled: deal over…

We’ve just heard that the Greens have cancelled the meeting for Sunday… deal over Update: Harry doesn’t think it’s done and dusted.… and Pete points to an interesting last line in Sargent’s communique… “We remain committed to forming a government and will continue to explore all avenues with this in mind. However the current deal on offer is not sufficient and will not best serve the interests of our country” Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written …

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Greens walk out on FF…

Politics.ie carried a report that the two sides had agreed a draft programme of government, then shortly afterwards RTE report the Greens have walked out on the talks… Something screwy going on here… Oh, it looks like shot a fame is gone… shame, because we had some great quotes lined up… our day will come again, no doubt…. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider …

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Heads up for Drivetime…

Okay. There’s no knowing how this deal is going to pan out in Dublin. Or when it might be resolved one way or the other. If we are still in suspended animation by about 5.20 this afternoon, Mary Wilson will be featuring some blogger comment (including some from our regular Sluggerites) on Drivetime, on RTE Radio 1 this evening, followed by a short commentary from yours truly, who will, probably quite rashly and with a minimal amount of solid evidence, …

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Working through lunch…

Greens and FF working through lunch and into the afternoon… It must be serious… Of all the comment the most apt advice was given on Morning Ireland this morning from former PD advisor Stephen Byrnes: stay close to your core competence. In other words keep it environment, environment, environment… “They [the Greens] may be missing their focus if they bring in a very large shopping list… The absence of the Progressive Democrats from a senior economic ministry and the fact …

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Betfair odds balanced between Greens and no Greens…

The main negotiations should have been finished today, and it looks like the former hot favourite for a new coalition is not so hot, nor exactly the favourite with Betfair punters. Fianna Fail and PDs is the new favourite at 7/5. With the Greens 6/4. That’s tight. The current total value of the covered bets stands at £40,056! The negotiations between the Greens and Fianna Fail are supposed to end tonight in time to call ratification of whatever deal may …

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Betfair says it will be a FF/Green/PD government…

For those of you still following the horse trading in the Republic, the market on the next government combo over at Betfair seems to be coming down fairly decisively for the multi-party heaven of Fianna Fail, the Greens and the Progressive Democrats, where it is about 1/2 on (8/15 to be accurate). The next favoured option sitting at 7/2 is for the Greens without the PDs. Or if you want to bank on things going belly up by the end …

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DUP and the end of the pan nationalist front?

One of the fascinating aspects of this election has been the relish with which has been consumed in detail by Northern Ireland’s Unionists. Calton Media’s analysis was congratulatory of Bertie Ahern. And even today in the Sunday Tribune, Ian Paisley has defended Ahern against the allegations of financial impropriety. Which begs the question: is this the end of the so called ‘pan nationalist front’? Many nationalists would argue that this ‘front’ was only ever a malicious figment of the collective …

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Adams: expectations were too high…

Gerry Adams in interview with An Phoblacht, acknowledges that expectations, even at leadership level within the party were ignoring the party’s performance in 2002, and suggests that in reality there was probably only ever one gain (in all likelihood he’s referring to Padraig MacLochlainn, who, the tallies suggest, only missed out because Cecilia Keavney was eliminated before Niall Blaney). Jim Gibney scopes out the problem of cultural and political departure that eighty years of partition has created for the party. …

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Greens present government conditions…

In case you are concerned at the length of time that the horse trading has gone on so far in the Republic, just note that Wales still doesn’t have a settled Executive yet… smart money is on a Plaid/Tory administration. The Dail maths still suggest it could go either way. Intriguingly, the Greens have set out their core issues in a document formally presented to Fianna Fail today. In all likelihood it was prepared long before the result of the …

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It was lack of southern Protestants ‘wot lost it’…

Tongue firmly in cheek, Newton Emerson reckons that Sinn Fein ‘bombed’ simply because there weren’t enough Protestants in the Republic to wind up their supporters… (subs needed) Newton’s Optic: Sinn Féin has blamed “a serious shortage of Protestants in the 26 counties” for its poor showing in last week’s election. “Sinn Féin draws its core support from people who can’t be relied on to vote,” explained Dr Pat Answer, Professor of Advanced Shinnerology at Dublin Sunday Business College. “They might …

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Labour’s difficulty, SF’s lost opportunity?

In yesterday’s Irish News Brian Feeney reckoned that the party which came out worst in the Republic’s election (after the PDs) was Labour. Though they stayed steady on 20 seats, they failed to move forward, and renew their team inside the Dail chamber. Today Pat Rabbitte confesses that he probably should have done more and hit harder on the economy. Though, I suspect, that if they were going to rise above the din of detail, one or two ‘big ideas’ …

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Harney being wooed by both sides…

Just two out of eight seats left in the Dail, but the PDs are being courted by both major parties. Even so, aryHarney is not giving anything away. And Paddy Power, Betfair, et al don’t get to pay out on the sharpest punters for another while, whilst the internal horsetrading continues. Update: Interesting aside from Trevor Sargent, who clearly thinks Harney’s response will be critical to his own party’s advance. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written …

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Sinn Fein’s delay tactics in north cost it bounce in south…

So much of what occured after the Belfast Agreement is so hidden from open scrutiny that it is often a case of paying your money and take your choice of who was responsible for who ultimately collapsed the outworking of that deal. Republicans blame unionists, and vice versa. However, much as it looked as though David Trimble paid the political price at the Assembly election of November 2003, Ed Moloney speculates that last Thursday Sinn Fein may just have antied …

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Fine Gael ‘definately’ not talking to Sinn Fein…

Here’s a thing. Enda Kenny is still trying to make a fight of getting the keys to the Taoiseach’s office. Getting the numbers might be a lot easier if they had Sinn Fein on board. Finian McGrath has alleged they have made an approach to that quarter and now the party is in full official denial mode. Though it hasn’t stopped some of their internet ‘irregulars’ from doing a little speculation of their own. Chris Gaskin does some more plausible …

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How Bertiegate boosted FF and nearly killed the PDs…

In yesterday’s Irish Times Deaglán de Bréadún comes up with as good a reason for Michael McDowell’s demise, as TD, leader of his party, and Tanaiste as any offered elsewhere. He argues, in particular, that his responses to a media onslaught on Ahern over ‘Bertiegate’ allegations leaked from the Mahon Tribunal were highly erratic: Having successfully convinced a significant proportion of the electorate in 2002 that the PDs were needed to ride shotgun in ethical terms on Fianna Fáil, the …

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Sinn Fein: the Alliance party of the Republic?

Gerry Adams concedes that his party faces a lot of work in the next two years before the council elections in 2009. The sheer size of the gap between current political reality and the party’s own ambition is see when you consider that its performance compares unfavourably with the Alliance party in Northern Ireland. In the recent Assembly elections the Alliance Party garnered 5.2% of the vote and took seven seats in an Assembly of 109 members. Sinn Fein took …

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Options for Bertie

With the exception of Dublin South-Central, where according to the current report, Labour’s Eric Byrne could still beat Sinn Féin’s sitting TD Aengus O’Snodaigh, RTÉ are firmly predicting the final seat totals as FF 78, FG 51, Labour 21/20, Greens 6, SF 3/4, PDs 2 and Independents 5. Update According to the folks at IrishElection O’Snodaigh will shade it by 67 votes, leaving Labour with 20 seats, SF with 4. Pending a possible recount.. And No recount, the margin was …

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Sinn Fein to take last seat through multiple transfers?

In Dublin South-Central Aengus O Snodaigh is currently 769 ahead of Eric Byrne of Labour who is fighting for a second seat for Labour… Brid Smyth, of People before Profit vote transfers should break towards SF’s sitting TD… but there are still some counts to go before we’ll have a clear result… some nails to be bitten down to the quick? Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics …

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The unkindest cut of all…

Rather snazzy with the first conspiracy theory of the election… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty