Options for Bertie

With the exception of Dublin South-Central, where according to the current report, Labour’s Eric Byrne could still beat Sinn Féin’s sitting TD Aengus O’Snodaigh, RTÉ are firmly predicting the final seat totals as FF 78, FG 51, Labour 21/20, Greens 6, SF 3/4, PDs 2 and Independents 5. Update According to the folks at IrishElection O’Snodaigh will shade it by 67 votes, leaving Labour with 20 seats, SF with 4. Pending a possible recount.. And No recount, the margin was 69 votes. 6 other seats to be confirmed.

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  • slug

    FF+PDs+independents looks possible.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Either that or the Greens.

  • George

    Don’t rule out FF/Lab with Rabbitte as Minister for Health to ensure the end of co-location.

    I had FF/Green at 11/1 but I fear FF want the more secure option of Labour.

  • Yokel

    If Aengus looks like losing he should have his campaign team shot. I left the house at 1pm or so and he was 1100 or so up, a big gap. Whilst I understand Byrne had some swings his way to come, I would have reckoned it would have come too late.

    The problem with the PD plus Indos is that not all those Indos may play ball. It only takes 2 to say know, though I can 3 on paper who would probably say yes. To give Bertie a majority. In theory Bertie needs 83 seats with the casting vote of the Speaker but he’d be wanting something slightly more comfortable.

    Yes he can certainly get in that way but with the first vote of confidence issue, it could collapse especially with this tribunal about to start again.

    I think it’d be Berties chosen option as he has a fair amount of time for the PDs but others in FF may want a clean break as may some within the PDs.

  • curious

    Two interesting RTE debates for the political scrap book.

    McDowell v’s Adams
    http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0516/primetime.html

    Pat Rabbite v’s Adams
    http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0516/primetime.html

  • jone

    Meanwhile twenty weighs in with his unique analysis

    http://twentymajor.net/

  • susan

    Apart from a regrettable lack of gender equity in his profanity, Twenty makes a lot of valid points. “The summer is gone, the harvest is ended, and we are not saved.”

    “Options for Bertie.” So it’s “Bertie”, now is it? Et tu, Pete, et tu?

  • Robert Keogh

    Yokel,

    I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. Who knows what surprises the Mahon tribunal will reveal and Bertie is keenly aware that he owes his current position to Thick Spring bringing down the Reynolds FF/Lab government. The only party I could see putting up with his corruption are the PDs but FF can’t form a government with just them.

    So it comes down to whether Bertie’s been truthful about his finances or if he can satisfy Rabbite that it’ll be ok “on the night”. It is certainly going to be a very interesting couple of weeks.

    I’d like to see the Greens in government to pull the government away from the developers and general lack of respect for the environment. I’d like to see Labour in government to prevent the privatisation of the health service and that unpalatable co-location abomination. Private medicine should be private not subsidised by the public purse.

    But honestly, I’ve no time for any of them, they’re all a shower. We need to replace this failed representative democracy with true democracy. We have the techonology, we have the capability, let’s fire the bastards!

  • Crow

    A FF/Lab coalition would create fertile ground for SF and the smaller leftist parties next time out. Labour support inevitably drops following a spell in government and fifteen years of uninterrupted FF government will create some wander lust.

  • primaxuk

    I would like to congratulate S/F IRA on their demise in the South Of Ireland General election when your MEP cant evening win a seat you our defiantly in trouble and when they talk of a united Ireland I think they should first try and unite the people of the republic behind there policy which today has proved that they our not and their policy of a united Ireland is Politically Bankrupt.

    The people of the south of Ireland our not as stupid as the northern republican electorate as they proved today by totally rejecting S/F IRA and for DUP what does that say for them who took them by the hand in to government of our beloved country

    What Happened to The 10 seats Gerry forecasted 3 maybe 4

  • It was Sammy Nc Nally what done it

    If we can have SF/DUP then surely we can have SF/FG (plus others ). Leaving out the PDs – if they had 3 independents( the quare fellah fom Tipp plus 2 others ) it could be the Left/FG alliance – with 84.

    Go Gerry & Enda etc

  • ixilate

    It looks most likely that it will be Bertie’s Boys, some pds, and a few independents; which will come as a blow to Paddy Power punters, who (unlike on Betfair) were not offered the option of “Any other coalition.” All bets to be refunded lads….

  • Brian Boru

    I am extremely disappointed by the performance of the PDs, but am pleased they health onto Harney and Grealish’s seats. I hope the next 5 yrs they can rebuild. Harney should be given a chance to complete health-service reform in time for the 2012 election when the PDs will have shown their relevance in Irish politics. I wonder what might have been had we chosen Liz O’Donnell instead as leader – but that’s academic now. Bertie will remain Taoiseach – despite the delusions of some Blueshirts. The only question now is with whom. I hope we get another FF-PD govt this time propped up by Indos like 1997-01.

  • Brian Boru

    BTW Aenghus O’Snodaigh has held on.

  • Brian Boru

    By the way, I don’t agree that FF-Labour are the most likely Coalition. FF don’t like giving up Cabinet posts and junior ministries (esp. the backbenchers). Remember that a number of TDs stepped down at the election because they weren’t happy with their promotional prospects. As such, I think Bertie will either choose PD-Ind or the Greens but he wont choose SF.

  • If there is anyone interested (and can speak French) the AFP has put together a really cool interactive presentation on the electioin in the Republic:

    ici: http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/AFPanimation/IrelandElecFR2205/

  • Brian Boru

    One other point. If Ind FF-gene-pool Independent Bev Flynn is declared bankrupt she would have to resign her seat under Irish law. That would set the stage for a by-election in Mayo that the govt just cannot win (no govt has since 1982 and Mayo people want a Mayo Taoiseach). That would increase the Rainbow (incl. Greens) to 78. If they could then get the PDs to join up that’s 80. Then if they could get Finian McGrath, Michael Lowry and Tony Gregory on board – that’s 83 – an overall majority provided Rory O’Hanlon (FF) remains as CC. Personally I don’t think the PDs will join up with FG not least because a Rainbow govt would veer towards the Left with Labour and the Greens in there.

    On the other hand, FF only have 78 seats if the Ceann Comhairle (speaker) is included. If he resigned and was replaced by someone from the Rainbow or Independents, then if you add on the PDs (2) and Bev Flynn and Jackie Healy-Rae (former FF) you have 82. But without Bev they are just 81. Her dad could help her out of course but will he. The problem is that 2 of the other Independents, McGrath and Gregory, are very much on the Left – but have indicated – especially McGrath – that they are open to a possible deal. The dark-horse here is Michael Lowry – the other Independent – this time from the FG gene-pool. He has said he would prefer a FG-led govt but if that isn’t possible he would be prepared to talk to FF. It’s becoming difficult to see how Mary Harney’s private-hospital co-location plan could survive dependence on leftwing Independents. But if Lowry could be brought on board who knows.

  • It was Sammy Nc Nally what done it

    BB,

    how apposite – dodgy dealer from FG the boy Lowry saves the ass of dodgy dealer from FF bagboy Bertie.

    Perhaps they could share a lawyer at the tribunals.

  • vinty

    FF will do a deal with Labour.

    Rabbitte has no qualms about ditching his beliefs, he’s done it several times since his official ira/workers party days