After Drumcree Whither the DUP?

As the dispute at Drumcree winds down, Northern Ireland is left to look at the political aftermath. Commentators have been talking about what is playing out within the DUP as Carla Lockhart advocates for ‘profound consequences’, seeming to mean removing Michelle O’Neill as First Minister by having Emma-Little Pengelly resign as Deputy First Minister, whilst DUP leader Gavin Robinson argues that such a move would be highly damaging to Unionism. The open divide is causing outsiders to ask, what is the direction of travel for the DUP from here?

It was reported over the weekend that Lockhart was being urged to challenge Robinson for the leadership of the DUP…

Unionist hardliners are urging Carla Lockhart to challenge Gavin Robinson for the leadership of the DUP…They are urging her to take on Mr Robinson, believing she has enough support within the party to topple the East Belfast MP…The split within the DUP was made clear over the weekend after Ms Lockhart and Mr Robinson took vastly different positions over a decision by Secretary of State Chris Bryant to ban Orangemen marching down the nationalist Garvaghy Road in Portadown.

On Sunday Politics with Mark Carruthers TUV leader Jim Allister said of rumours (played down by both Carla Lockhart and the TUV) that she was considering a jump to his party that

“She is someone of the calibre and strength and principle that, of course, I’d be proud to have in the TUV, but Carla will make her decisions… she’s been badly let down. That’s obvious”

In ‘The Belfast Telegraph‘ Allison Morris writes…

Since taking over the DUP leadership, Gavin Robinson has not had an easy run. The circumstances of his rise to the top job, following the arrest of the now convicted paedophile Jeffrey Donaldson, were far from ideal. But as the dust settles on an incredibly difficult few weeks, following Secretary of State Sir Chris Bryant’s intervention around the Garvaghy Road Orange Order parade, it is the DUP that could well be the biggest losers. Since August, when the High Court initially quashed a Parades Commission determination against the Portadown District, Carla Lockhart has appeared in public more times in the presence of TUV boss Jim Allister than her own party leader…

Ms Lockhart’s statements regarding the intervention of the Secretary of State and the Chief Constable Jon Boutcher around the parading dispute — calling for the police chief to resign and her party to pull Emma Little-Pengelly from the Deputy First Minister’s post, thus also toppling Michelle O’Neill — are again not in keeping with the leadership’s current position.

Professor Peter Shirlow believes what is going on reflects a major divide within the DUP. According to ‘The Irish News‘…

A leading academic has said he believes that “the days of the DUP are questionable” after the party’s leader and one of its best-known MPs appeared to diverge over whether to bring down Stormont…

“I always thought there was a split coming,” he said. He traced the tension to the way the modern DUP was built. The party, founded by Ian Paisley in 1971, was for decades was defined by his brand of hardline unionism. However, in in early 2000s it began to draw in politicians from the more centrist Ulster Unionist Party. “You’ve got to realise that the DUP in many ways became a party to which ambitious Ulster Unionists went,” Professor Shirlow said…

“There was always a tension anyway – that movement of your Ulster Unionist types had some effect in terms of squeezing out the Paisleyite-type tradition. He said the Drumcree row could now bring the DUP’s older tradition to the fore.

“I would assume you could have some tension now, among those who say this is the true nature of the party,” he said. “I would strongly predict that where you would find change within the party after May’s election next year, if Jon Burrows and the TUV do well. “I think the days of the DUP are questionable.”

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