Betfair odds balanced between Greens and no Greens…

The main negotiations should have been finished today, and it looks like the former hot favourite for a new coalition is not so hot, nor exactly the favourite with Betfair punters. Fianna Fail and PDs is the new favourite at 7/5. With the Greens 6/4. That’s tight. The current total value of the covered bets stands at £40,056! The negotiations between the Greens and Fianna Fail are supposed to end tonight in time to call ratification of whatever deal may or may not arise on Sunday. Is it a loss of confidence? FF playing hardball? Or are they playing footsie under the table with sufficient of the independents to let them go it alone and dump the Greens? We should know by tomorrow. Unless the clock stops at midnight, ala Good Friday 1998?

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  • Prince Eoghan

    Mick

    How about a thread on the disrespectful way that the current PM is treating the Scottish Parliament and Government. He has signed a deal with Libya that could potentially hand over one of the Lockerbie bombers, despite justice being a devolved matter. All of this without any consultation with Scottish civil servants or politicians. Oh and he never writes, he never calls… Poor auld Alex Salmond is still waiting for a congratulatory phone call for winning the Holyrood election.

  • Frank Sinistra

    Mick,

    It’s worth pointing out for the uninitiated that all those combinations can include Inds and/or a minority government being formed. If your combination foms with either of those elements it’s still a winner.

  • Frank Sinistra

    And if the Greens jump they have to get it by a very sceptical party conference come Saturday so any deal needs to be sweet enough to bring home a party that relied on FG (anti FF)transfers to get half the party elected.

    It’s going to the wire. Not looking good for stability come the outworkings of Mahon.

  • Mick Fealty

    It’s slated in for Sunday Frank. Mahon is a distraction. If Mahon finds against Bertie, Bertie walks, not FF, and certainly not the Greens. If there are difficulties here it will be to do FF not divvying up on the Green’s core concessions.

    Having said that, I’d be surprised if FF want just to resume their old shape (albeit with bigger pay offs for the independents). This is an opportunity for FF to renew itself. The Greens would give them credibility in areas that other potential partners just won’t.

    The prices suggest it’s in the balance. At this stage I believe them.

  • Frank Sinistra

    Mick,

    The Green’s core demands seem already to be unattainable in their entirety anyway. Will they trade Shannon for Transport? Colocation for Tara?

    As with every deal they can’t and won’t get it all but will what’s on offer pass a party decision that has just seen hopes of major gains almost as wrecked as SF’s, that relied on FG and other anti-FF transfers for half it’s TDs to get elected in the hope ‘minor’ cabinet roles give a longer term bounce.

    I read it described as ‘FF fed off the PDs and now it’s going to suck the marrow from it’s Greens’.

    Getting into to bed with FF has always been a very risky move. If the ‘Rottweiller’ couldn’t hold them to account I doubt Gormley will do much better.

    Fascinating and as outsiders all we can do is enjoy political speculation and wait.

  • Frank Sinistra

    Another point worth coming back to was the one made by Simon (?was that his name?) on that Doughty St programme you were on.

    Irish politics is essential non-ideological, never was. The aim of FF is to retain power, there is little underlying ideology for them to compromise on so shifting from an ultra-free market minor political partner to a green minor political partner is unlikely to cause them any difficulties.

    Labour as another ideology lite party would present little difficulty either but a bigger slice of the pie. It’d be the most stable and is my bet still

  • Aquifer

    “Irish politics is essential non-ideological, never was. ” Sure, but what passes for common sense in FF circles is probably matured males mouthing anti-green dogma. FF may need to have some time in the post-power cooler before they can do the deal.

  • Yokel

    Frank’s understanding of the FF/Green & FF/PD options automatically including Indos is correct, to a point.

    There is amongst some bookies an option that ex-plicitly includes Indos in the options eg FF/PD/Indos. This is based on the possibility that the Indos are actually formally part of the next government, i.e. get seats in cabinet. If they merely support the government on the Dail floor from the backbenches then the FF/Green FF/PD options implicitly include Indos as Frank says.

    The reason why some bookies have moved on this is rumours that one Indo was pitching for a government post. Though its unlikely they’d get a cabinet post, a junior post may have been possible. This could leave punters in a state of flux with bookies if this ever came about if they don’t check exactly what the terms are.

  • Brian Boru

    I think the Greens are emerging as a party of protest rather than a party of govt. A responsible party of Coalition govt has to compromise with its partners. They are destined to be as McDowell called them “the leftovers”. I would prefer FF-PD-Ind anyway so hospital co-location and the roads-programme can get through anyway. I think on the 14th, Ahern will be elected Taoiseach. One concern though is that it is imperative for the stability of that govt that A: The Opposition provide the Ceann Comhairle (speaker), B: Bev Flynn and a FF backbencher involved in an assault charge are not forced to give up their seats in upcoming court-cases and C: That Michael Lowry supports Ahern even though he used to be in FG. This however is not ideal from the perspective of stability. I suspect the next election may be sooner than we think. 🙁

  • Tochais Síoraí

    BB, the GP are very serious about govt. & if the numbers between FG,Lab & the GP added up that would be that.

    The fact that they are in serious discussions with a virulently anti-Green party such as FF is proof of the desire to be in office. However, I’d make a guess that the talks will break down later today due to ‘irreconcilable differences’ (the GP will have some experience in the bank of coalition negotiations for next around). If not, its unlikely to get thru’ Sunday’s GP convention anyway.

    The odds on an FF/GP govt should be a lot higher – it’s possible but unlikely. There are a lot of mug punters on Betfair.

  • Mick Fealty

    Dan Boyle is from an FF background, if he doesn’t understand how to negotiate into government, then you might right. But we’re probably better waiting for the white, or black, smoke before getting too het up about it.

    Sargent was very equivocal on the roads strategy last time I heard. They have some legitimate concerns about who the contracts for co-location hospitals are going to go to, but I’m not sure that it will get busted out of the water.

    From their point of view, they will need to give, but they will also have to take. Otherwise, they will not get to bring anything of value to the party.

    Look on the darker side, Bertie doesn’t get election on the 14th, and Labour (noticeably quiet up to now) steps in an saves the day.

  • Mick Fealty

    TS,

    Why do you think it won’t get through the convention?

  • Yokel

    Mick

    Bertie will get the nod unless someone makes a good deal conditional on him going. SF will abstain or vote against both him and Enda and that will be that, he’s in.

  • Peasant

    Brian, I’m surprised that with your handle, suggesting an acquaintance with history, you’re quite happy to acquiesce in the destruction of much of the archaeology associated with Tara, when a modified route would work as well. And as for co-location – yeah, sure, make the developers richer, and increase the private element of the health service, making it more difficult for the uninsured to get access to treatment when they need it. ‘Closer to Boston than Berlin’ wasn’t just a soundbite, you know. Harney meant every word of it, and that’s the ideological standpoint she brought to her ministerial post.