Where would a No vote for the ‘Fiscal Compact’ leave Ireland?

Apparently, according to economist Jim Power in today’s Irish Examiner, in a very odd place indeed: It is intended that 12 out of the 17 eurozone member states would be sufficient to ratify the treaty. It appears this will be achieved easily enough. Consequently, unlike the case with the Lisbon Treaty, if Ireland were to reject it in a referendum, that would not be sufficient to prevent it from becoming enshrined in EU law. The big question then is where …

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Time for a closer look at what’s under the bonnet of a Scottish referendum?

1974 and 1975 were rich years for student politics at the University of St Andrews – not one, but two general elections in 1974, followed by the ‘EEC’ poll of 1975; throughout the endless debates stimulated by the miners’ strike and consequential three-day week, the narrow Labour leads in February and October, followed by a large vote in favour of remaining in the European Economic Community I can never recall the possibility of a referendum on Scotland’s future being posed …

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Yes Taoiseach, but if we’re going to have a Referendum why not have a meaningful one?

So, it’s official. The Irish people want a referendum, whether the Constitution says they need one or not? Micheal Martin thinks it’s overblown, and that the real problem is that the current treaty does not actually address any of the real problems facing the Irish (nay, the European) economy: For all of the fighting in December about the place of existing European Union treaties and institutions, existing treaty law will remain fully in force. The draft treaty explicitly states that …

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Unionist cause in Scotland should fight from a position of strength

Grasping defeat? The Unionist cause in Scotland fighting an independence referendum campaign should be doing so from a position of inherent strength.  Support for the Union has consistently outpolled support for independence.  In more recent years any spikes in the support for independence have been just that, unsustained for any significant period of time.  Also the natural conservatism of voters about change is on Unionism’s side. So that’s that then we can all go home? Regrettably, no.  These two factors …

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Will Scottish football decide the referendum?

Is Scotland’s football team good enough for independence? Let’s look at the facts by comparing electoral support for independence, in so far as that can be measured as support for the SNP, with the performance of the Scottish football team. A number of points are worthing noting here: Qualifying for the finals of tournaments in the 1950s didn’t coincide with any major electoral success on the part of the SNP as, coincidentally, it wasn’t until the late 1960s that there …

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Scotland – it’s time – why wait?

With the latest opinion polls showing the SNP at a sensational record 51% for Holyrood, and a pretty impressive by-election win in Lanarkshire, it’s getting tempting for Alex to go for an early independence referendum. The context is key – the Scottish government and SNP are acting like history is working their way. We have: The Independent describing the SNP’s Scandinavian strategy as “Bye Bye England” ….. whilst Alex is just back from China,  and the party unveils it’s £60 billion infrastructure …

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Scotland Referendum – Cameron starts his play…

I’ve been expecting something for a while but perhaps not exactly this (from the Indie): David Cameron is considering a UK-led referendum on Scottish independence to prevent the Scottish Nationalists from setting the terms, question and timing to suit themselves, British government ministers admitted yesterday. That might be a bit of a red herring but this ain’t: There have also been suggestions from the Nationalists that Scots would be able to choose more than one option in the referendum – …

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Scotland, it’s starting…

You can do some stuff with close to a million quid…. Angus Robertson at SNP conference at Inverness: Today I am delighted to confirm that Scotland’s independence campaign has been generously supported by the late, great Scots poet and Makar Edwin Morgan with a substantial contribution of £918,000, which is ring-fenced for the referendum campaign Whatever one thinks of Alex Salmond I think we can all agree he doesn’t lack confidence: Nae limits: Delegates On the way to Inverness I …

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Salmond says “the…Lib Dem(s)….cannot act as the Tories’ front men in Scotland and at the same time present themselves as Home Rulers – they have to choose.”

From the BBC Nick Clegg attacks the SNP’s delay on calling an independence referendum Clearly I am opposed to Alex Salmond’s ambition, which seems to be his sole ambition in Scottish government, to yank Scotland out of the United Kingdom. I think it is not good for Scotland. I believe passionately in a strong Scotland, with more powers, but in a strong United Kingdom. I think the more that the details are looked at and the less that Alex Salmond …

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The election in numbers

sorting Belfast West assembly votes - May 2011

The Electoral Commission held their post-election seminar on Thursday morning in Belfast along with the Electoral Office (EONI) and Royal Mail. Representatives from local parties along with election staff and electoral observers were in attendance. 26 suspected absent ballot forgeries have been referred to the PSNI as a result of signature issues being “checked by a forensic expert at the NI Forensic Science Laboratory”. 78 postal ballots were found in a final sweep of NI Mail Centre on the evening …

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Eddie Izzard – saying Yes2AV all over Belfast’s Cathedral Quarter

Representatives from local parties supporting AV meeting Eddie Izzard

Within an hour or so at landing at Belfast City Airport on the latest stop in his non-stop campaign schedule, Eddie Izzard had been greeted by Dawn Purvis (who’s in favour of AV), had a look inside the Black Box, given a pep talk to runners in tomorrow’s Belfast Marathon, met leading politicians from local parties supporting AV and retired to Malmaison for a purple (non-alcoholic) cocktail … as well as spontaneously canvassing numerous passers – even the receptionist at …

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Home Rule for Wales

I’m still a bit stunned at the referendum result: Yes: 517,132 No: 297,380. That’s 63.5% in favour of streamlining the Welsh lawmaking process. Some remarkable results, especially in the North East where both Wrexham and Flintshire voted resoundingly in favour with stunning swings from 1997. Here’s the results and the BBC’s analysis. And Carwyn says: “An old nation came of age” I’m very lucky to live in these times – the first real Home Rule for Wales since Glyndŵr.. Cool …

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Give us the tools to do the job.

Tomorrow sees the referendum on a slicker law making process for Wales’s devolved powers. Two polls, one for the Western Mail and the second for Y Byd ar Bedwar (analysed on Syniadau), show 2:1 majorities for the Yes vote. In the Yes camp the spin is we’re winning but need a good turnout. In their annual obsevation on Wales the Guardian gives it’s support. It’s quite a good assessment to be fair. It is frustrating that it is necessary to …

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Law making powers for Wales – it’s old hat..

To coincide with our referendum the National Library of Wales at Aberystwyth have been digitising their copies of the thousand year old Laws of Hywel Dda. To quote the preamble: “The Laws of Hywel Dda are one of the jewels of Welsh civilization which bare witness to a developed and literate society in early medieval Wales. Although the images from NLW Peniarth 28 manuscript of the Laws are better known, the newly digitised NLW 20143A manuscript also includes interesting drawings. …

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Welsh Referendum – things hotting up.

Shane says Yes!  With a little more than a fortnight to go before polling on March the 3rd the Yes campaign is continuing the strategy of big name endorsements. Whilst maybe not engrossing the nation it’s getting a little nasty. Here’s the Western Mail’s take on maverick No campaigner Len Gibb’s latest lies. More positively what AMs would do with new powers. A real positive input from Helen Mary Jones: Plaid deputy leader Helen Mary Jones suggested beefing up the …

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6 weeks to go – No campaign launches.

The BBC report on today’s launch of the True Wales “No” campaign in next month’s referendum. The launch takes place in Newbridge RFC (…my home village Rugby Club…hmm). Rachel Banner, True Wales spokesperson, is quoted: “We don’t want more laws. What we need is for AMs to focus on education and health and the economy and to build up these things so we can have a prosperous Wales. “We don’t believe new laws will achieve that.” I love that “We …

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No “No” Campaign = No “Yes” Campaign

In the run up to the March 3rd referendum things are getting a little strange here. Carwyn indicates the dangers. ….It is up to the Electoral Commission to designate an official Yes and No campaign, but both must pass a series of tests before they can reach that status and get access to £70,000 to organise their campaigns.. Under the rules, the commission has to designate an official campaign group from each side, or none at all. Speaking at first …

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Short, Sharp Yes for Wales.

The BBC reports on today’s official launch of the Yes for Wales campaign to secure legislative powers in devolved areas by winning a referendum on March 3rd. The national launch is followed by a series of regional events as the campaign’s website shows. First Minister Carwyn Jones states the case (wait a mo for video to kick in). There’s no doubt that Scotland and Northern Ireland are taken more seriously. Why? My argument would be it’s because they’ve got more …

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Welsh Referendum – “Yes” have the big Mo….

Been away for the weekend so have only just seen Saturday’s Western Mail Poll on voters’ intentions in next March’s referendum. 60% of voters said Yes, 28% No. Of those certain to vote (a meagre 39% of the sample) a stunning 73% said Yes v 23% No. Over the last month the gap seems to have widened considerably. How? Here’s John Osmond from the Institute of Welsh Affairs on Labour’s plan for a seamless run in to Referendum and then …

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Do you want the assembly now to be able to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it has powers for?

That’s the question in the Welsh referendum planned for March 3rd 2011. It, actually, isn’t as badly phrased as many suggestions….although the Electoral Commission’s preamble is a little ..well..long? PREAMBLE The National Assembly for Wales – what happens at the moment The Assembly has powers to make laws on 20 subject areas, such as: · agriculture · education · the environment · health · housing · local government In each subject area, the Assembly can make laws on some matters, …

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