Referendum – Page 3 – Slugger O'Toole

Fiscal Treaty Referendum: “the outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters”

Pete Baker on May 27, 2012, 12:36 pm

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Worth noting the result of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll of voting intentions in Ireland’s European fiscal treaty referendum on Thursday. From the Irish Times report Asked how they were likely to vote on the treaty, 39 per cent of voters said Yes, 30 per cent said No, 22 per cent said they did not know, and 9 per cent said they would not be voting. When the 31 per cent of undecided and non-voters are excluded, support for the Yes side …

Euro crisis: “Rome wasn’t built in a day and it didn’t fall in a day either…”

Pete Baker on May 25, 2012, 3:21 pm

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The eurozone crisis rumbles on, its democratic deficit intact, and Ireland’s Fiscal Treaty referendum approaches. Time, then, for historian Michael Wood to go looking for some historical references… The British historian Gildas (c 500-570) in his diatribe against contemporary rulers in the early 500s, looking back over the story of the Fall of Roman Britain, lists the military failures, but behind them he speaks bitterly of a loss of nerve and direction, a failure of “group feeling”. Gildas talks about …

#Euref: Underlying questions too big for a simple Yes or a No. What about a ‘Not Yes’?

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2012, 12:10 pm

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Last night’s avalanche of advocacy for the NO campaign on Vincent Browne was remarkable. Watch it though, especially for Sigrun Davidsdottir‘s remarks on why Ireland is not Iceland that seemed not to come to the notice of our eponymous host. Hint: neither includes the fact that Ireland is hemmed in by the EU, nor that Iceland is blessed with endless quantities of valuable natural resources. So first, try this fascinating little vignette on P.ie on why you might question one …

#EUREF: Souveraineté ou survie du déluge?

Mick Fealty on May 17, 2012, 8:34 am

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FitzJamesHorse was in Dublin yesterday. His description of the way the yes camp (by his lights, ‘the establishment’) for Referendum on the Fiscal Compact as a Hobson’s Choice”: The legacy for European democracies is that their politcians have actually managed to restrict REAL CHOICE. In Ireland for example, no mainstream political party has been articulating the “No” case…it has fallen to Sinn Féin …..still somewhere between the margins and the mainstream……to rail against the notion of Austerity and loss of …

#EUREF: Sentiment swings towards a Yes vote (whilst FF and SF consolidate)…

Mick Fealty on May 14, 2012, 1:15 pm

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The only extraordinary thing about yesterday’s Red C poll results for the SBP, was the clear swing towards Yes, by six per cent age points. That’s probably reflective of a poor campaign thus far, and the degree of uncertainty thrown up by the chaos in Greece… And, as Stephen Collins noted on Saturday: …far from undermining the Yes campaign, the arrival of Hollande on the scene with his emphasis on growth should actually be a help to it in the …

#EUREF: “Voting No would rapidly expose how unimportant we now are”

Mick Fealty on May 13, 2012, 10:16 am

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Vincent Browne notes in the Sunday Business Post (£) today that neither the yes nor the no camps have done their cases credit thus far. In the case of the government he rightly notes “claims that this treaty is about investment, jobs, growth and the stability of the euro are wild exaggerations in part and just wrong in part”. In line with Micheal Martin’s early criticism (“the problem with this treaty is not that it does too much, it is …

#EUREF: Heart saying ‘no’; but will the head say otherwise?

Mick Fealty on May 12, 2012, 9:04 am

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Right, you cannot put much store by one trip out with a couple of canvassing groups, in two very different parts of north side Dublin; Ballymun with Sinn Fein and Sutton Park (on the Dart line to Howth) with Fianna Fail… Harry McGee makes a very interesting observation: Party leader Micheál Martin has joined Senator Averil Power on the hustings. Compared to the Lisbon and Nice treaties – where indifference was the predominant mood on the doorsteps – there is …

Ireland’s impending experience of its own ‘Total Perspective Vortex’?

Mick Fealty on May 11, 2012, 11:13 am

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It’s probably true that there is no such thing as a hard way and an easy way out of Ireland’s dilemma, but there’s no shortage of denial to go around… Expect there to be some good for the No camp in the Red C poll coming up this weekend… But in his business column in the Irish Times today, Dan O’Brien characterises some of what’s driving the No campaign as something akin to the denial over the housing bubble in …

Austerity is a dish Ireland will almost certainly have to eat, hot or cold…

Mick Fealty on May 9, 2012, 4:31 pm

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Markets are itching again… The Greek indecision over forming the next government is such that the Euro has slid to just under $1.30, and yields on Spanish debt are rising to $6.06… [Ms Lagarde, got yer umbrella handy? – Ed] Scary stuff… What’s even more scary is that those economists who cast a darkening glance over the fiscal treaty as a means of getting out from under a recession that may already be hardening into a depression are not wrong …

A drafting error in the Fiscal Compact?

Mick Fealty on May 7, 2012, 11:56 am

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Eagle-eyed, Cormac Lucey: Article 4 states that countries with government debt levels above 60% of GDP must reduce that “at an average rate of one twentieth per year”. But those who signed the Treaty appear to have intended that countries with government debt levels above 60% of GDP must reduce that at an average rate of one twentieth per year of the excess over 60% of GDP as Council Regulation (EU) No. 1177/2011 makes clear. The implications of this difference could be …

Yes, Ireland can apply to the IMF for money, but…

Mick Fealty on April 30, 2012, 9:25 am

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If you want proof that SF dropped the ball on the anti case last week by putting partial quotes from Karl Whelan and two other eminent economists, it’s the fact that they have lent their own authority to an economist who is way off base from their own anti Fiscal Compact position. On Morning Ireland this morning Whelan gently debunked the idea, arising from (though strictly speaking, not contained within) a Sunday Times’ story yesterday that Ireland would be able …

Quote of the day…

Mick Fealty on April 27, 2012, 8:48 am

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This appears in a few papers this morning, but Miriam Lord has the best set up line: A Noonan one-liner is always flagged by a slow-growing smile and a drawled “yah know” as an opener. He thought it a mistake that Sinn Féin “as people who have such long experience of the courts system” were “drawing witnesses from the prosecution in to justify their position”. That would be referring to the miscued leaflet quotes… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of …

Referendum: Hollande “is not intending to renegotiate the fiscal pact itself”…

Mick Fealty on April 26, 2012, 12:02 pm

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One of the problems the Yes camp will have to contend with is the shifting sands in Europe (see Arthur Beesley for the latest political collapse in the Netherlands, far from the feckless PIGS…) And indeed the front page of today’s Irish Times carries a story on the leading contender for the French Presidency, Francois Hollande, and his reference to the capacity of Ireland to say No in the up coming referendum: “There will be a renegotiation,” Mr Hollande said. …

Sinn Fein cut quotes from three Economists who believe “there is little to be gained from rejecting the Treaty…”

Mick Fealty on April 25, 2012, 9:48 pm

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Don’t really know what to say about this, other than cut and paste Karl Whelan’s blog (you can read more here): Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Austerity versus Stability Treaty: A volatile mix of politics and economics?

Mick Fealty on April 19, 2012, 2:41 pm

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These days, the Republic seems to have more Referenda than Northern Ireland used to have fresh elections to new Parliaments/Assemblies/Conventions. For country in which policy plays so minor a role in public elections, this is generally where the established parties struggle to explain their own foreign policy decisions to a sceptical public… For now, according to the Irish Times poll the Aye’s have it, if you discount the highest number in the count (i.e. Don’t Knows) by 58 per cent …

“We cannot impose; this has to come from within Northern Ireland.”

Pete Baker on March 10, 2012, 7:05 pm

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Nothing in politics, nor in life, is “inevitable” [except death and taxes! – Ed] Indeed. That includes a “border poll” – despite the protestations of the former International Representative for West Belfast, then temporary Crown Steward, now Louth TD, and Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams. The Irish Times reports his latest outburst “A border poll is inevitable. Mr Patterson knows this. It is only a matter of timing,” said the Sinn Fein leader. “By definition that will come when the people of …

The power of politics to change constitutional terms of reference …

Mick Fealty on March 1, 2012, 9:33 am

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Brian Taylor, the BBC’s political editor in Scotland: It is simply remarkable to note the extent to which the Scotland Bill, building upon the work of the Calman Commission, has been overtaken in political debate. One does not need to subscribe entirely to the view that the bill and the status quo “now seem lost in the mists of time” (author, Sir Peter Housden, permanent secretary, Scottish Government.) However, the Calman package – which involved such detailed discussion and prolonged …

Ireland’s first genuinely ‘free’ referendum on foreign policy for some time…

Mick Fealty on February 29, 2012, 3:16 pm

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Well, it’s all go! Despite some considerable irritation in Brussels that all its efforts to avoid a referendum on the Fiscal Compact turned out to be for nothing, as the Irish Times points out: Because the treaty does not require all participating states to ratify it before coming into operation, an Irish No would leave this State behind as the rest of the euro zone moved ahead with closer integration. Ireland might remain formally a euro member, but, critically, outside …

Case for unification: “I sense that republicans don’t actually know the answer themselves”

Mick Fealty on February 13, 2012, 11:00 am

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On the subject of polls, I’d blogged Owen Paterson’s thoughts before Alex Kane’s column came online: My own view is that this is the perfect time for a referendum. Bring it on, in fact! In 1973 we never got the chance to have a proper debate about the realities, consequences and ramifications of Irish unity. As is so often the case the nationalists ran away from it. In one sense, of course, you can’t blame them for not wanting a …

Economic (Ireland’s or anyone else’s) sovereignty has not existed since Bretton Woods

Mick Fealty on February 13, 2012, 9:05 am

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Eamonn has a whole range if great writers guesting at his blog these days. Among them Maurice Hayes, who makes some fundamental points about Irish politics and the strange relationship that exists between the legislature and the sovereign voice (aka, those bloody referendums): It is not being less democratic than advocates for a referendum to argue that the essence of democratic decision, accountability and transparence, can, on occasion, be better achieved by elected representatives properly informed and mandated than by …