Election 2010 – Page 2 – Slugger O'Toole

Conservatives considering their options in Northern Ireland?

Mick Fealty on May 17, 2010, 9:32 pm | Readers 2

Interesting news from Jeff Peel on status of the Conservative party staffers in Northern Ireland. Slugger cannot confirm whether it is true or not, but we understand the Conservatives did indeed expend a great deal of time, money and energy on trying to help get Ulster Unionist (as well as their own) candidates elected in the latest general election. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the …

What kind of a mandate do you need to be elected as an MP?

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on May 13, 2010, 5:00 pm | Readers 11

Bar chart showing percentage of eligible voters who voted for winning candidates in NI's 18 constituencies, together with the percentage turnout

Not as big as you’d think! On average, you only need to persuade one in four voters in your NI constituency to support you. In some areas, less than one in five voters would be enough. Most of the figures you see at election time talk about the percentage share of the vote, ie those who turned up at a polling station (or posted in their vote). But what about the percentage share of the eligible voters? What kind of …

Conservatives and/or Unionists?

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on May 12, 2010, 12:00 pm | Readers 13

The Ulster Unionist Party Executive meets on Saturday, but will the key issues of Sir Reg’s leadership and the relationship with the Conservatives be resolved? Will David Cameron make a flying visit to keep his promise to “be back in a week”? And what will the NI Conservatives do if the UCUNF linkup collapses?

Michael White: “You pay your money and take your choice.”

Pete Baker on May 12, 2010, 11:45 am | Readers 3

At the Guardian’s Election Blog, Michael White offers a mea culpa and provides a sensible assessment of where we’re at as the dust settles over Downing St. From the G’s Election Blog As I wrote in a piece yesterday, history points to the larger party, especially the predatory Tory party, swallowing up the minnow on its back. That’s where the bookies odds must point: to the Lib Dems being divided, even wrecked, by the strains of coalition in hard times. …

SDLP performance between May 2005 and May 2010

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on May 11, 2010, 12:00 pm | Readers 12

SDLP percentage point changes between 2005 and 2010

The SDLP successfully held onto their three Westminster seats, and passed the baton between Eddie McGrady and Margaret Ritchie without a fumble. However, how healthy is their share of the vote across the 18 constituencies? They lost their deposits in two seats – North Down and Belfast East – and other than two of the seats they won, they only made gains in share in three others. The graph below shows the percentage point difference in their share between May …

Political Jedwards – ‘My kids didn’t buy it’

Blank on May 10, 2010, 11:54 pm | Readers 1

Trying to explain politics and democracy to young children is tough and I often fall back on comparisons they understand like the X-Factor or Strictly Come Dancing. Like politics to my children I’m aware such things exist while not paying them much heed but they do provide a reference point to help explain electoralism – the most talented or their favourite isn’t assured of winning and sometimes won’t make it to the final stage. They now kind of get to …

Alliance back in the fight?

Blank on May 10, 2010, 9:39 pm | Readers 13

At one point during the election campaign I read a senior Alliance member and good friend of Slugger boasting they were one of only two parties running in every constituency. I reminded him as it was the first time in 10-15 years for six of the eight constituencies held by Nationalists that wasn’t much of a boast. Now the results are in what can we tell about Alliance’s first visit to those constituencies in such a long time? FST – …

West Tyrone – the Deeny factor

Blank on May 10, 2010, 8:51 pm | Readers 10

With Kieran Deeny not running the constituency returned the best performances for three parties (in terms of increased percentage): Pat Doherty (SF) – +9.5% Thomas Buchanan (DUP) – +2.0% Ross Hussey (UCUNF) – +7.3% Even the SDLP managed their 2nd best % improvement here: Joe Byrne (SDLP) – +4.9% Anyone care to speculate on what if anything can be deduced about Deeny’s vote from this? ADDS: I know some will get cross at me doing this (not comparing like with …

Gordon Brown to resign as Labour leader

Pete Baker on May 10, 2010, 5:09 pm | Readers 2

Gordon Brown has announced that he will resign as Labour leader and that formal talks will be held with the Liberal Democrats on forming the next UK government [Adds: Gordon Brown will remain in place to lead those talks]. The 13 Northern Ireland MPs who take their seats might yet have an important role to play. BBC report here And the Guardian is live-blogging events. Adds Do the math… Detail From the BBC report Mr Brown said Britain had a “parliamentary …

NI’s 13 MPs who take their seats “should work together”

Pete Baker on May 9, 2010, 10:38 pm | Readers 3

BBC NI’s political editor Mark Devenport notes an “outbreak of political harmony” on today’s Inside Politics programme between two of Northern Ireland’s newly elected MPs – the DUP’s Ian Paisley Jnr and the Alliance Party’s Naomi Long. The subject of agreement? That, should the opportunity arise, the 13 NI MPs who take their seats should be prepared to work together – “on areas like finance and the defence of the local economy” – in any potential negotiations over support for the next government. As I …

And so it begins…..

Blank on May 9, 2010, 2:01 am | Readers 1

Link Blank

Adams, SF, West Belfast and a missing 10%?

Blank on May 9, 2010, 12:03 am | Readers 17

Gerry Adams was always guaranteed to take West Belfast and he did at a canter – 71% of the vote. I will attempt to delve into the numbers and forgive me if this gets confusing and correct me if I am wrong.. In 2005 he took 24K votes from 34.5K on a 64% turnout. With the boundary changes he should have expected 27K (+3K) votes from 39.5K (+5K). Turnout was down 10% so to tread water Adams should have received …

Hung Parliament: Do the math…

Pete Baker on May 8, 2010, 8:32 pm | Readers 18

No white smoke yet from the Conservative and Lib Dem teams trying to negotiate an agreed pact. If they fail to reach an understanding, it could be the Labour party’s turn to dance with the Lib Dems. As the BBC’s Stephen Walker points out, even with Sinn Féin’s vacant seats taken into account, the election results show those two parties would still fall short of the required 323 seats. By just 8 votes… From Stephen Walker’s article The SDLP traditionally takes the Labour …

Prediction Competition Winners – pt1

Paul Evans on May 8, 2010, 5:09 pm | Readers 1

So we have the final results from Northern Ireland (OK, we’ve had them for a while, but spreadsheets aren’t my forte, OK?). And the winner of the first part of the competition is…. Liam O’Brien Thanks, by the way to Gavan McGibbon who answered a late-night call on Twitter for help on how to work the Excel to make sense of your entries. We broke it down into two parts. The first one was where we asked you to predict …

Let`s keep Northern Ireland moving forward

Kilsally on May 8, 2010, 11:03 am | Readers 7

Despite the goings on in East Belfast the election results have seen the DUP claw back voters. The 2009 Euro elections saw the DUP achieve 88,346 first preference votes (18.2%) whilst the election to Westminster has seen the percentage go up to 25% of the vote (168,216). Now this is still down 8.7% on the previous Westminster election but in overall terms considering the recent DUP `annus horribilis` I would think the DUP should be pretty happy with the result. …

Gildernew victory after 3rd recount

Blank on May 7, 2010, 10:28 pm | Readers 26

After the tightest of votes and three recounts Michelle Gildernew has taken Fermanagh South Tyrone. Declaration made on Radio Ulster. Gildernew 21304 – Connor 21300 McKinney 3574 / Vasundhara Kamble 437 / John Stevenson 188 Blank

SDLP still in trouble – five areas going under

Blank on May 7, 2010, 8:15 pm | Readers 5

While the SDLP easily retained its three seat other areas indicated that ship may not be out of troubled waters just yet as five candidates recorded the party’s worst results in decades (looks more like ever): FST – 7.6% worst result ever for SDLP West Tyrone – 14% (excluding Deeny’s candidacy in 2005) worst result ever Mid Ulster – 17.4% equal worst result ever with 2005 General election South Antrim – 8.7% worst result ever Upper Bann – 12.7% worst …

‘Celebrity’ candidates shouldn’t give up the day job

Blank on May 7, 2010, 6:54 pm | Readers 3

In this election we had six candidates with hopes and decent media profiles beyond their political exposure (in three cases their political background was essentially non-existant). All of them failed to translate this into anything approaching a successful campaign: Fearghal McKinney – ex-journalist Mike Nesbitt – ex-journalist, ex-victims commissioner Eamonn McCann – columnist (also a political activist) David Vance – political pundit and blogger Harry Hamilton – singer Trevor Ringland – former rugby player Seems being known doesn’t guarantee being …

Basil McCrea talking about results, strategy, leaders & therapy

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on May 7, 2010, 6:43 pm | Readers 5

I caught up with Basil McCrea this morning and he talked about UCUNF’s results, Lagan Valley, the UUP’s strategy going forward, choosing a new leader (to fit the strategy) and something about getting a therapist! By the way – the breakfast liveblog post has been updated with voxpops with Dawn Purvis (talking about Naomi Long’s success in East Belfast) and Conall McDevitt (talking about the SDLP results and need for engagement by civil society). Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast)Alan Meban. …

Winners and losers

Blank on May 7, 2010, 6:05 pm | Readers 6

A few weeks ago I tried to present some ways the parties could judge if the election was a success or not. DUP Retaining seats all their Westminster seats will be the main aim. Adding a seat in South Belfast, as a full gain or countering a single seat loss elsewhere, would also be an excellent result. The can’t expect a gain in vote in percentage or real terms from the last Westminster election as the TUV are now involved …