Prediction Competition Winners – pt1

So we have the final results from Northern Ireland (OK, we’ve had them for a while, but spreadsheets aren’t my forte, OK?). And the winner of the first part of the competition is….

Liam O’Brien

Thanks, by the way to Gavan McGibbon who answered a late-night call on Twitter for help on how to work the Excel to make sense of your entries.

We broke it down into two parts. The first one was where we asked you to predict the turnout (as a % of registered voters) and the the % of the votes cast that every party received. Scoring it, the winner is the one with the lowest minus score (you got -1 points for every % point you were out either way). Generally, you were all quite good at forecasting the main parties, and but you were a bit less accurate with the TUV vote and the ‘others’ (the latter, as people said in the comments on the actual comp, because people were mistakenly factoring in Sylvia Hermon with ‘others’).

The full table can be seen over on the BBC site, but the percentages are as follows:

  • SF: 25.5%
  • DUP: 25.0%
  • UCUNF: 15.2%
  • SDLP: 16.5%
  • Alliance: 6.3%
  • TUV: 3.9%
  • Others: 7.6%

I can’t fit the full table here on a web-page but you can download the results in a PDF file here. We have 67 valid entries (some of you gave us entries that didn’t add up to 100 and got disqualified) and the top ten were…

  1. Liam O’Brien
  2. Colm Mooney
  3. ???
  4. Mark Hunt
  5. ???
  6. Stanley Harper
  7. Paddy Duffy
  8. Willie Derry
  9. ???
  10. Owen Polley

The ??? entries were people who requested anonymity. You can see what the points awarded were on that PDF, but Liam was just 7.8 points out and Owen was only 14 points adrift, so it was a very strong field and quite tight at the top.

The results for the second part of the competition will be announced in due course (i.e. when the spreadsheet-induced migraine from getting the first lot of results has worn off).


  • Good Lord. I’m rather surprised to make the top 10. Pessimism comes in handy sometimes.

  • Blimey, considering I accidentally pressed East Belfast for the DUP’s best result I’m pretty happy with that!

  • Paddy – we’ve not done part two yet. The points for ‘best performance’ haven’t been done yet – pressure of time. Will do it later in the week.

  • Hang on.

    Two days to get the turnout, a week before we get the full results.

    A bit third worldy.

    I predict riotous apathy.

  • Count Eric Bisto von Granules

    What’s the prize anyway? A week in Florida holed up with Peter perusing gun shops for flak jacket in anticipation of the “et tu Brutus” moment

  • In the meantime, while we’re waiting, you might be interested in the new UTV game show for primary school children hosted by Stephen Nolan. There’s a transcript of the pilot show on my blog.

  • Sorry the service that you don’t pay anything for doesn’t reach your high standards Articles!

  • Those are my high standards, and if you don’t like them… well, I have others.

    With apologies to Marx. G.

  • andnowwhat

    Do unionists know that SF will be a minor party in a ROI? Do they realise that all the benifits they have including the NHSS will be carried over? Actually, from what I have read, we will all be better off as will the South

  • Forget third world.

    Results en route from far off galaxy.

    Results from 2015 which are being processed in a neighbouring galaxy may arrive sooner.