Prediction Competition Winners – pt1

So we have the final results from Northern Ireland (OK, we’ve had them for a while, but spreadsheets aren’t my forte, OK?). And the winner of the first part of the competition is….

Liam O’Brien

Thanks, by the way to Gavan McGibbon who answered a late-night call on Twitter for help on how to work the Excel to make sense of your entries.

We broke it down into two parts. The first one was where we asked you to predict the turnout (as a % of registered voters) and the the % of the votes cast that every party received. Scoring it, the winner is the one with the lowest minus score (you got -1 points for every % point you were out either way). Generally, you were all quite good at forecasting the main parties, and but you were a bit less accurate with the TUV vote and the ‘others’ (the latter, as people said in the comments on the actual comp, because people were mistakenly factoring in Sylvia Hermon with ‘others’).

The full table can be seen over on the BBC site, but the percentages are as follows:

  • SF: 25.5%
  • DUP: 25.0%
  • UCUNF: 15.2%
  • SDLP: 16.5%
  • Alliance: 6.3%
  • TUV: 3.9%
  • Others: 7.6%

I can’t fit the full table here on a web-page but you can download the results in a PDF file here. We have 67 valid entries (some of you gave us entries that didn’t add up to 100 and got disqualified) and the top ten were…

  1. Liam O’Brien
  2. Colm Mooney
  3. ???
  4. Mark Hunt
  5. ???
  6. Stanley Harper
  7. Paddy Duffy
  8. Willie Derry
  9. ???
  10. Owen Polley

The ??? entries were people who requested anonymity. You can see what the points awarded were on that PDF, but Liam was just 7.8 points out and Owen was only 14 points adrift, so it was a very strong field and quite tight at the top.

The results for the second part of the competition will be announced in due course (i.e. when the spreadsheet-induced migraine from getting the first lot of results has worn off).

Living in London but working all over Britain and Ireland. A left-leaning Labour Party member and blogger. I’m on twitter as @paul0evans1 and I blog mainly at the Local Democracy blog though I’m in lots of other places as well. I’m a massive fan of Google Reader – please follow me and share the better posts from your feed?