Gerry Adams was always guaranteed to take West Belfast and he did at a canter – 71% of the vote.
I will attempt to delve into the numbers and forgive me if this gets confusing and correct me if I am wrong..
In 2005 he took 24K votes from 34.5K on a 64% turnout.
With the boundary changes he should have expected 27K (+3K) votes from 39.5K (+5K).
Turnout was down 10% so to tread water Adams should have received 25K from 36K votes.
That didn’t happen, both those figures are around 3K short in the final return. (23K and 32K)
Some voters seem to have disappeared in West Belfast – circa 2,000 or around 10%.
Over 2,000 people look to have disengaged (along with the highest number of spoiled ballots) unless my sums are really out.
note: I’ve rounded to make this confused numberfest a little more intelligible
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