A few weeks ago I tried to present some ways the parties could judge if the election was a success or not.
Retaining seats all their Westminster seats will be the main aim. Adding a seat in South Belfast, as a full gain or countering a single seat loss elsewhere, would also be an excellent result.
The can’t expect a gain in vote in percentage or real terms from the last Westminster election as the TUV are now involved but need to improve on their percentage at the Europeans given the TUV aren’t running in every constituency (not running in FST makes this more difficult).
–They lost a seat, the party leader’s and the increase on vote from Europeans and TUV woes does little to diminish the blow. The DUP had an unsuccessful election.
Retaining all their seats is the key aim. They have limited chances for an additional seat but coming through the middle in Upper Bann as a full gain or to counteract a lose in FST would be a big victory.
They’ll return the largest vote but increasing on it from the European elections would be a success.
Retaining FST would be a massive win but losing it with the SDLP vote suffering badly would be a minor success.
–They did retain all their seats including FST and the SDLP vote there took a massive dent. They also increased their percentage and are the largest party in vote numbers. A very successful election
Retaining all seats and increasing their percentage and vote, there seems no realistic option for adding a seat.
Retaining SB in particular but with an increase in vote.
Losing in FST but increasing percentage and vote
-They retained SB and increased their vote share substantially. The level of their defeat in FST takes the shine off but still a successful election
They must return 2 MPs from somewhere, they must increase their percentage and actual vote (again not running in FST makes this more difficult).
South Antrim in particular needs to be a gain.
Winning 1 seat (North Antrim)
Reaching a quota for Assembly elections in numerous constituencies
(They can’t increase their vote or percentage from European election as they are only running in 10 constituencies)
Retaining percentage and vote and/or growing in certain constituencies
(Can’t really expect to win any seat)
-gained a seat most didn’t expect and increased vote a very successful election
Retaining vote at Assembly level in ND under Agnew
-didn’t do it, pretty unsuccesful