Winners and losers

A few weeks ago I tried to present some ways the parties could judge if the election was a success or not.

DUP

Retaining seats all their Westminster seats will be the main aim. Adding a seat in South Belfast, as a full gain or countering a single seat loss elsewhere, would also be an excellent result.

The can’t expect a gain in vote in percentage or real terms from the last Westminster election as the TUV are now involved but need to improve on their percentage at the Europeans given the TUV aren’t running in every constituency (not running in FST makes this more difficult).

–They lost a seat, the party leader’s and the increase on vote from Europeans and TUV woes does little to diminish the blow. The DUP had an unsuccessful election.

Sinn Féin

Retaining all their seats is the key aim. They have limited chances for an additional seat but coming through the middle in Upper Bann as a full gain or to counteract a lose in FST would be a big victory.

They’ll return the largest vote but increasing on it from the European elections would be a success.

Retaining FST would be a massive win but losing it with the SDLP vote suffering badly would be a minor success.

–They did retain all their seats including FST and the SDLP vote there took a massive dent. They also increased their percentage and are the largest party in vote numbers. A very successful election

SDLP

Retaining all seats and increasing their percentage and vote, there seems no realistic option for adding a seat.

Retaining SB in particular but with an increase in vote.

Losing in FST but increasing percentage and vote

-They retained SB and increased their vote share substantially. The level of their defeat in FST takes the shine off but still a successful election

UCUNF

They must return 2 MPs from somewhere, they must increase their percentage and actual vote (again not running in FST makes this more difficult).
South Antrim in particular needs to be a gain.

–disaster

TUV

Winning 1 seat (North Antrim)

Reaching a quota for Assembly elections in numerous constituencies
(They can’t increase their vote or percentage from European election as they are only running in 10 constituencies)

-disaster

Alliance

Retaining percentage and vote and/or growing in certain constituencies
(Can’t really expect to win any seat)

-gained a seat most didn’t expect and increased vote a very successful election

Green

Retaining vote at Assembly level in ND under Agnew

-didn’t do it, pretty unsuccesful

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  • Good analysis. I did a little work which showed that TUV received enough votes to earn a single seat based on Xs only, but further analysis based on the premise that Allister is so diametrically opposed to the rest of Unionism that he would not receive any STV transfers revealed he would be eliminated before several UCUNF candidates in multi-member constituencies.

    (my analysis came up with 5 seats each to DUP and Sinn Fein, 3 to SDLP, 2-3 to UCUNF, 0-1 to Alliance and the two Independents – to be honest I think Naomi would have gained a Belfast seat because there would be no need for tactical voting elsewhere in the area)

  • USA

    Why did the DUP not stand in North Down?
    Sylvia Hermon has a strong fpersonal vote in North Down. She has played her hand very well, and now, like a queen on a chess board she can move in many directions.
    Any prospect of her re-joining the UUP as leader and moulding it in her own image. Or could she align with Naomi Long adding momentum, strength and futher credibility to the Alliance party project?

  • John Joe

    Winners and Losers? If anyone needs straws to clutch…

    I just thought of a measure of political longue durée – its the relative performance in each constituency for the main parties (I’ve left out TUV since they didn’t field in 2005). It only applies if the party fielded a candidate in a particular constituency in both elections. It looks like a complex data matrix but it simply lists the actual figures in each constituency, with a rough count of positive and negative scores at the start with the overall total plus an adjusted figure (the total minus best and worst performances).

    Its not broken down by constituency but only listed as individual scores to indicate the shape of the distributed performance (more less showing the generalised swing to or from the party).

    Probably best seen graphically, but the relative performances of DUP and UCUNF are interesting – even with the TUV vote taken into account, UCUNF almost broke even (9 negative scores, 8 positive) while the DUP shipped mostly losses. SDLP show a fairly consistent loss while SF and Alliance made consistent gains.

    Obvious health warning over the boundary changes.

    DUP (14 -ve, 2 +ve): -19.6%, -10.4%, -9.1%, -8.8%, -8.5%, -7.6%, -6.4%, -6.3%, -5.9%, -5.5%, -3.7%, -3.3%, -2.9%, -2.2%, -1.0%, 2.0%;
    Total = -99.2% (adjusted: -81.6%)

    UCUNF (9 -ve, 8 +ve): -30.0%, -8.3%, -4.9%, -4.1%, -1.9%, -1.8%, -1.8%, -1.5%, -1.4%, 0.1%, 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.9%, 0.9%, 5.2%, 6.4%, 7.3%;
    Total = -33.9% (adjusted: -11.2%)

    SDLP (13 -ve, 5 +ve): -7.2%, -4.5%, -3.9%, -3.2%, -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.8%, -1.7%, -1.7%, -1.1%, -1.1%, -0.8%, -0.2%, 0.3%, 1.5%, 1.6%, 4.9%, 10.9%;
    Total = -12.7% (adjusted: -16.4%)

    SF (5 -ve, 12 +ve): -1.8%, -1.4%, -0.3%, -0.1%, -0.1%, 0.1%, 0.6%, 1.4%, 1.7%, 1.9%, 2.5%, 3.2%, 3.8%, 4.4%, 7.1%, 7.3%, 9.5%;
    Total = 39.8% (adjusted: 32.1%)

    Alliance (3 -ve, 14 +ve): -3.6%, -2.0%, -0.6%, 0.0%, 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.9%, 1.0%, 1.2%, 1.8%, 2.0%, 2.3%, 3.1%, 7.7%, 26.2%;
    Total = 42.6% (adjusted: 20%)

  • abucs

    I think Alliance had the most successful election. An advantage that they have is that they honestly represent a change in politics in NI.

    If in the electorate there is a mood for change, Alliance will be in the box seat to capitalise on such a change.

    A lot depends on their new MP, defending their seat next time around and their subsequent record as progressive and fair minded.

    It’s only very, very, very early, but the Alliance Party might (just might) be a future catalyst for change in politics in NI and cause a realignment of internal politics around that change.

    Maybe that is not such a bad thing.