Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts

The election has potential to be surprising, any leftfield results won’t be known until the count but I’ve been considering how each party may judge a successful return. Levels of success rely not just on the number of MPs returned but comparative votes from the last Westminster election and since along with other considerations. For example SF were the largest party in terms of vote after the European election but that wasn’t the case at the last Westminster electon. Similarly the DUPs vote is almost guaranteed to fall from the last Westminster election but that doesn’t reflect the emergence of the TUV in the last European. Success will be judged on several levels – the number of MPs, percentage and actual votes and how the result would translate into seats at Assembly level (arguably more important for some).

My thoughts below on judging success are by no means definitive –please suggest other factors that could indicate a successful outcome for the parties.

DUP

Retaining seats all their Westminster seats will be the main aim. Adding a seat in South Belfast, as a full gain or countering a single seat lose elsewhere, would also be an excellent result.

The can’t expect a gain in vote in percentage or real terms from the last Westminster election as the TUV are now involved but need to improve on their percentage at the Europeans given the TUV aren’t running in every constituency (not running in FST makes this more difficult).

Sinn Féin

Retaining all their seats is the key aim. They have limited chances for an additional seat but coming through the middle in Upper Bann as a full gain or to counteract a lose in FST would be a big victory.

They’ll return the largest vote but increasing on it from the European elections would be a success.

Retaining FST would be a massive win but losing it with the SDLP vote suffering badly would be a minor success.

SDLP

Retaining all seats and increasing their percentage and vote, there seems no realistic option for adding a seat.

Retaining SB in particular but with an increase in vote.

Losing in FST but increasing percentage and vote

UCUNF

They must return 2 MPs from somewhere, they must increase their percentage and actual vote (again not running in FST makes this more difficult).

South Antrim in particular needs to be a gain.

TUV

Winning 1 seat (North Antrim)

Reaching a quota for Assembly elections in numerous constituencies

(They can’t increase their vote or percentage from European election as they are only running in 10 constituencies)

Alliance

Retaining percentage and vote and/or growing in certain constituencies

(Can’t really expect to win any seat)

Green

Retaining vote at Assembly level in ND under Agnew


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