Slugger TV looks at the main parties after #AE22

Slugger TV is five years old! This month Anna Mercer from Stratagem and Chris Donnelly look at the state of the parties following the Assembly Election. David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

UTV Leaders Debate-Low key campaigns don’t drop their guards

The leaders of the five main parties gathered in South Belfast today for the UTV Leaders Debate, which is the first of two of these debates in the 2022 Assembly Election campaign. Marc Mallett as usual was the moderator and there were two new faces with Doug Beattie and Jeffrey Donaldson taking part for the first time. The experienced debaters returning from 2017 were Colum Eastwood, Naomi Long and Michelle O’Neill. The debate was divided into three main themes, Executive …

Read more…

And the winner is … ranking the PEBs: Slugger’s verdict on the party broadcasts of #AE22

It’s back! The Slugger review of the Party Election Broadcasts. Starting all the way back in 2014, we are returning to award the best party election broadcast of the 2022 Assembly campaign. This year we are assembling the same judges as in 2019 to help us decide who won the battle on TV. We have our own Alan Meban, the Belfast Telegraph Crime Correspondent, Allison Morris and Director of Brown O’Connor Communications, Chris Brown. How does it work? Each of …

Read more…

Slugger TV looks at the polls and strategy for #AE22

This month Slugger TV talks to two former party strategists about what the parties will be thinking about going into the next election. We have Brendan Mulgrew (For SDLP advisor and Partner in MW Advocate) and Lee Reynolds (Former Director of Policy for the DUP and SPAD). NVTV and local broadcasting lost a very special person last week. Marilyn Hyndman very sadly passed away. She was someone who edited, checked over and supported Slugger TV. We hope you enjoy this …

Read more…

Scores on the doors: 2022 Assembly Election lay of the land

We are 104 days away from the Assembly Election. Set for Thursday 5th May, we will be able to decide who we want to take Northern Ireland forward for the next few years. Where will the parties be targeting and defending? I have put together a list of where is under threat for each of the main parties and where could they make some gains. These things are moveable feasts and dynamics can change throughout the campaign. Sinn Fein-Currently holds …

Read more…

Doug Beattie welcomes any disillusioned members of the DUP who want to come over to the UUP…

With the DUP taking a lurch to the religious right, some of the more moderate DUP politicians are wondering is it time to jump ship. Doug Beattie is happy to welcome them one and all, with one proviso. Doug said: ‘ any new members would have to endorse the UUP’s vision and values.’ This could be a bit of a sticking point because even UUP politicians would have trouble explaining their parties vision and values. UUP leader Doug Beattie has …

Read more…

Well, well, well-#AE2022 and that Lucid Talk poll

It’s early days, minds could change later, but the Belfast Telegraph’s latest poll will send shivers down the DUP’s spine. According to Lucid Talk, support for the DUP has dropped to 16%, the same as Alliance. Sinn Fein sits at 25%. Doug Beattie will take comfort from the figure for the UUP, up two points to 14%. A Sinn Fein First Minister has been a possibility since the 2017 Assembly election. Based on these figures,  Sinn Fein will clinch the …

Read more…

Where can the Unionist parties gain seats at the next election?

The DUP has started messaging ahead of next years assembly election that the combined Unionist parties need just five seats to remove the protocol. Now this claim has been fact checked that they can only remove certain parts, rather than all of it. But I thought it would be interesting to look at where Unionism could potentially find those gains. To start with, this is a very tall order for the combined Unionist parties. If the results of elections from …

Read more…

AE22: Targets for the main parties next year

It is 15 months away, but lockdown boredom and messing around with numbers, he is the lay of the land going into the next Assembly Election. Alliance The happiest people looking at this are the Alliance Party, gains to be seen across Northern Ireland and on numbers, none of their 8 seats are under threat. Around 10 target seats are there for them, with varying degrees of effort required. The low hanging fruit are places like North Belfast and South …

Read more…

What could the surge of centre ground parties mean for a possible 2020 Assembly election?

The results of the 2019 general election have confirmed that the electoral map of Northern Ireland has been redrawn. The Alliance Party broke out of its traditional electoral stronghold in and around Belfast to make strong gains across Northern Ireland, polling 16.8% to come third in the popular vote behind the DUP (30.6%) and Sinn Féin (22.8%). With possible fresh Assembly elections coming in 2020, the rise of centre ground in Northern Ireland politics is likely to lead to potentially …

Read more…

Northern Ireland #GE2019 results roundup

With the results of the 2019 general election in, it is clear that the results of the local and European elections earlier this year were no fluke and the surge of the centre ground in Northern Ireland politics looks here to stay. The chart above shows how the parties performed in terms of vote share at this election, compared with all Northern Ireland elections over the course of the decade. The total unionist vote being at 43% is the “new …

Read more…

Women, Northern Ireland and the 2019 General Election

Clare Rice is Research Assistant on the ‘Performing Identities: Post-Brexit Northern Ireland and the reshaping of 21st Century Governance’ project at Newcastle University, a PhD Candidate and TA at QUB, and an occasional commentator. Twitter: @Clare_Rice_ We are less than a week into the 2019 Westminster election campaign and already we have seen a concerning pattern begin to emerge. It isn’t unusual for sizeable numbers of MPs to decide to step down from elected politics (see this useful overview), but …

Read more…

A case for pro-remain cooperation.

Over the past month we have heard about the impending election that seems to never be coming. Whether it is next year or in a few weeks there has been a debate not just locally but in other parts of the UK about some form of pro-remain cooperation taking place. Now, I know Alliance have ruled this out from their end and that is their right to do so. The Greens, Sinn Fein and the SDLP have expressed some sort …

Read more…

#GE19 or #GE20: what to expect

  With speculation mounting that we may see a general election either by the end of the year, or early in 2020 now feels like an appropriate time to look at the results of the 2017 Westminster election to remind us of the current state of play. Following a walking holiday in Wales at Easter 2017 Theresa May called a snap general election in order to give herself an increased, working majority in the Commons so that she could deliver …

Read more…

Slugger TV looks at a future Westminster Election

Slugger TV: Episode 29 from Northern Visions NvTv on Vimeo. This month we looked at some local marginal seats with Chris Donnelly and Niall Kelly David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

Party Leaders reactions to Prorogation of Parliament

The SDLP Leader, Colum Eastwood; Proroguing your parliament to enforce the will of a government that has no democratic legitimacy for an act that has no majority support is the behaviour of a tin-pot dictator. Boris Johnson has stepped far outside the acceptable norms for a functioning democracy and he must be reined in. “This is a moment for political courage. Every MP should take a stand in this moment, to defend the interests of people across these islands but …

Read more…

49 MLAs send letter to Tusk backing the backstop

Dear Mr Tusk, The proposed date of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, 31 October, is fast approaching. As leaders of local political parties who represent the cross-community majority who voted to remain in the EU we have grave concerns about the current trajectory toward a no-deal Brexit and the impact this would have on our economy, our border and community cohesion. An analysis carried out by the Northern Ireland Civil Service has predicted job losses in the region …

Read more…

How often do the parties in Belfast City Hall actually vote together?

One of the great debates, and I use that term loosely, we have had over the past decade in Northern Irish politics is whether the Alliance Party are more nationalist or unionist. Instead of letting Alliance, and the people who vote for them, define what the party stands for, certain elements of the political establishment, in particular political unionism, have gone out of their way to attempt to define Alliance as being somewhere on the spectrum between anti-unionist and pro-republican. …

Read more…

The Centre is Broad, Not Narrow

Stephen Donnan Dalzell is an LGBT activist and writer The local elections in Northern Ireland just a few weeks ago were not like those previously. If you have been following the results and are familiar with how elections in Northern Ireland usually pan out then you may have noticed something different. In a part of the United Kingdom that has been a sticking point during the Brexit negotiations and who’s border with the Republic of Ireland has been a stumbling …

Read more…