UUP in the clear on party funds
The Electoral Commission has cleared the UUP of wrongdoing over its failure to disclose some party funds. Lee Reynolds
Lee Reynolds
Compare and Contrast
Gerry Kelly lists 8 achievements from Sinn Fein’s negotiations on MI5 and policing. The government position was outlined on these issues on pages 15-18 Annex E of the St Andrews Agreement (pdf file). Lee Reynolds
The ‘Moo’ problem
In the fight to save the environment and control emissions has brought farm animals into focus, in the UK they account for 7-10% of all methane emissions. Methane is 23 times more damaging to the environment than C02. So what is to be done? David Milliband has warned the agreicutural sector it may face heavy fines unless it reduces emissions. A major source is dairy cows, each one producing 500 litres of methane a day, are we prepared to drop …
Digging deeper on public appointments
Why ask a question when the answer is there to see? Yesterday, Felicity Huston, asked why there was no improvement in the proportion of women appointed to serve as members and/or chairs of public bodies in Northern Ireland. The Northern Ireland Commissioner for Public Appointments highlighted that: In 2005/06 men hold 68% of all public appointments in Northern Ireland and 75% of chair appointments. The statistics she used were taken from the 10th annual report on public appointments (pdf file). …
10 years of promotion produces regression
A decade long drive to increase the number of women serving on, and chairing, public bodies in Northern Ireland has ended in failure. The percentage of women on boards has dropped from 35% to 32% and the number of female chairpersons has dropped from 28% to 25%. Lee Reynolds
It’ll happen
In an RTE radio interview DUP MP, Jeffrey Donaldson has said he believes a power-sharing Executive will be achieved. Lee Reynolds
Gerry McGeough considers SF challenge
Gerry McGeough, a convicted IRA gun-runner and former Sinn Fein Executive member, has said in an Sunday World interview he is considering running in Fermanagh and South Tyrone as an independent. He says: Someone has to stand up to Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party. He argues that the DUP is not fit for government and that the Garda should be used to police nationalist communities. When Gerry McGeough quit Sinn Fein he accused it of abandoning the goal of a …
Virtual Politics 1: Hearts and Minds Poll
The last opinion poll was carried out by Hearts and Minds in October 2006, its findings on party support are applied to the possible March Assembly election. Full poll details here (pdf file).The party scores and projected number of seats were: UUP 17.7% – 19 seats (down 5) SDLP 16.8% – 18 seats (no change) DUP 30.6% – 33 seats (no change) SF 20.1% – 21 seats (down 3) Alliance 3.5% – 4 seats (down 2) PUP 1.6% – 2 …
The power of numbers 6: Battleground West of the Bann
If it is still worth thinking about it, here is the last in the series of constituency profiles. The five constituencies West of the Bann – Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Mid-Ulster, West Tyrone, Foyle and East Londonderry seem to be pretty straightforward. The numbers say that the questions are what will Deeny do in West Tyrone and will the DUP take a third in East Londonderry?In Foyle, Mid-Ulster and Fermanagh and South Tyrone the Westminster and Local Government results predict …
The power of numbers 5: Battleground Armagh and South Down
The mathematical tour of constituencies wanders through Upper Bann, South Down and Newry and Armagh. The numbers present a pretty dull picture but events make Newry and Armagh the one to watch.In Upper Bann, both the Westminster and Local Government results point to no change – 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF and 1 SDLP. The UUP % of the vote was higher in LG (37%) than Westminster (34%) so the numbers don’t show a ‘Trimble’ factor in the UUP …
The power of numbers 4: Battleground Upper Down
What do the runes of the 2005 election results say about Lagan Valley, North Down and Strangford?In Lagan Valley the Westminster results say 4 DUP, 1 UUP and 1 Alliance while the local government results have it as 3 DUP, 2 UUP and 1 SF. So both Unionist parties will be targetting the constituency. The loss of Lewsley and Close will act as encouragement to Sinn Fein while the loss of Close will encourage the UUP. 3 DUP and 1 …
Let’s get these parties started
Geraldine Dougan has confirmed concerns over policing. John Kelly and Brendan Hughes are claiming intimidation of republicans who wish to attend policing debates and that SF fear an electoral challenge. A Sinn Fein spokesperson uncategorically rejected the claims: “This is total nonsense. It has no basis in fact or reality.” Interesting coincidence, so far SF have lost or cut a fifth of its existing MLAs. This corresponds with the level of outright opposition among SF voters (pdf file) in the …
Words and actions basque and spanish style
Nine months after declaring a permanent cease-fire a massive ETA car bomb tore apart a Madrid airport car park possibly claiming two lives. The suspended talks have now been declared “broken, liquidated, finished” by the Spanish Interior Ministry.. Lee Reynolds
The power of numbers 3: Battleground Antrim
The 2005 Westminster and Local Government results predict no change in East Antrim, some chance of a DUP/SDLP scrap in North Antrim but events keep making South Antrim more and more interesting.In East Antrim both indicators point to no change 3 DUP, 2 UUP and 1 Alliance with the SDLP unlikely to regain their lost seat. In North Antrim both point to no change. However, the DUP may be tempted to run four. They have over 3 quotas in both …
Smoking, cigarettes and the morality of New Labour
The Government has announced plans to raise the age that a person can legally buy cigarettes from 16 to 18. This has generally been well received but the Libertarian Alliance point out that New Labout thinks a 16 year old is mature enough to make choices about their sexual preferences but not about buying cigarettes, making the unsubtle point that: in Tony Blair’s New Britain, a man may sodomise a schoolboy in a public lavatory, and the police must look …
Slugger’s 2007 crystal ball
Time to unharness some of the slugger ‘hive’ mind. What are slugger commentors predictions for the political year ahead but remember slugger archives mean predictions will not be forgotten. (Hat tip to heck for the suggestion). Lee Reynolds
The power of numbers 2: Battleground Belfast
The 2005 Westminster and Local Government results indicate a fight in each of Belfast’s constituency’s with some prominent names under threat.In North Belfast the fight will be on the Unionist side. The Westminster figures have the DUP gaining 3 seats but Local Government figures have the UUP’s Fred Cobain holding on. The factors that will determine it will be the DUP’s vote management, where the 1000-1200 PUP votes go (or if they run) and can the UUP muster a strong …
Now it’s the DUP’s turn?
A media report that dissident republcans have turned their murderous intent towards the DUP to derail the process. Lee Reynolds
The power of numbers
With a January Ard Fheis called possibly called the last barrier to 7th March election has may have been removed plus being off gave me the time to do some number crunching. Voters are generally creatures of habit so past elections can give a reliable guide to the likely outcome of the upcoming election. So what does the 2005 Westminster and Local Government elections predict for March 2007?It is good news for the DUP and Sinn Fein with both the …
Don’t worry about a thing
Dermot Ahern, Irish Foreign Minister, seems to be advising everyone to relax. Sinn Fein shouldn’t worry about getting 100% support on policing. Plan B is nothing for Unionists to worry about as most of it is already in place, they haven’t bothered working on it lately and anyway the constitutional question is settled. Although, he reiterates Fianna Fail’s refusal to consider SF as a potential government partner, there seems to be a bit of softening on that. It is not …