Brian Walker – Page 16 – Slugger O'Toole

Is the backstop beginning to slide towards a deal the DUP won’t like?

Brian Walker on September 8, 2019, 11:43 am

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On the eve of Boris Johnson’s visit to Dublin it comes as no surprise that Sinn Fein claims that Leo Varadkar has conceded the backstop “at the eleventh hour.” Deniable though it may be, do they yet make a plausible case, as the squeeze tightens on Dublin to try to reconcile the defence of the single market with the serious threat to jobs and the all-island economy? Does Vardakar’s concession on the one hand that checks will be phased in …

Cabinet ministers demand Plan B, The Times reports. And it may include Northern Ireland staying in alignment with the EU if GB diverges

Brian Walker on September 7, 2019, 1:05 am

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The Times reports: Boris Johnson was under pressure from cabinet ministers last night to abandon his Brexit strategy and “come up with a plan B” after opposition parties pledged to veto any bid for a general election before he asks the EU for an extension On a chaotic day it emerged that: Rebel Tories expelled from the party by Mr Johnson have struck a deal behind his back with European leaders to secure a three-month Brexit extension. The group, which also includes …

“Die in a ditch?” It could come to that. And Ireland hunkers down for a new border

Brian Walker on September 6, 2019, 7:00 am

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As long as 24 hours ago, Boris Johnson seemed to have the edge in a deadly struggle with the new anti No Deal Commons majority. But with a Tory backlash mounting over sacking of 21 senior rebels and the influence of Dominic Cummings; and with Tory traditionalist MP resignations coming thick and fast led by brother Jo, I’m no longer so sure. Squeezed by the new majority, Johnson looked to be buckling under the pressure at his dire appearance at …

Concern deepens in both parts of Ireland over the state of paralysis in Brexit negotiations

Brian Walker on September 5, 2019, 11:50 am

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Evidence mounts of the economic damage of No Deal to the economies north and south and the implications for the border which are disputed between the British and Irish governments. A no-deal Brexit would mean Northern Ireland’s economy would be at least 3% smaller compared to if the UK stayed in the EU, a new analysis highlighted by the BBC NI Economics correspondent John Campbell suggests. That is a much less severe impact than a UK government analysis which suggested a …

Johnson may be a zombie PM but he could still win through, as the combined Opposition are united only on barring No Deal

Brian Walker on September 5, 2019, 7:00 am

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After suffering three defeats in two days, by early next week Boris Johnson may well be forced to swallow his words and accept a Commons majority Bill to ban No Deal. The pressure on Labour would then become irresistible to lift their ban on a general election. But that poses at least two dilemmas for Labour. Do they follow Corbyn’s instinct and go for an election almost straight away on say 15 October, two days before the EU Council meeting? …

The true costs of No Deal – the most complete independent assessment yet

Brian Walker on September 4, 2019, 5:19 pm

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Britain in a changing Europe is as near as we’ve got to an objective think on the subject of Brexit. Today as the Commons votes to forestall a No Deal outcome, they publish their independent assessment on what No Deal actually means for the UK (not the Republic). This is the Executive summary No deal will mean a prolonged period of uncertainty. Not only do we not know with any certainty when and how no deal impacts will …

“This is our last chance to deal with the Troubles legacy”

Brian Walker on September 4, 2019, 3:36 pm

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Academics who produced a critique of the Stormont House Agreement (Legacy) Bill have mounted a powerful defence of the Bill itself and their 100 pages of “tweaks” of it before the Commons NI Committee. The essence of their strong rebuttal of Ulster Unionist attacks is that their holistic approach acknowledges where the balance of responsibility properly lies for Troubles deaths. The Bill would replace a piecemeal approach to Troubles cases carried out by a reluctant PSNI which for some has …

Labour are catching on.. beware the elephant trap of a snap election

Brian Walker on September 3, 2019, 12:18 pm

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Last evening, as soon as Boris Johnson had made his non-announcement of a non-election that meant an election on his terms , the penny started to drop with Labour. They were about to fall into the elephant trap he’d set for them that Tony Blair warned them about. Labour are not now expected to support the motion Johnson is expected to put to the Commons in reply to the combined opposition’s Bill committing the UK against No Deal. For the …

There just has to be a compromise over the backstop, for all our sakes.

Brian Walker on September 1, 2019, 5:23 pm

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Ulster University campus. A new face of Belfast Taking bracing walks in west Donegal and in and around Belfast for three weeks without much sight of the political news does wonders for the perspective. Not for the first time, I experienced severe doubts about the relevance of the noise of politics to the rhythms of real life. I’m old enough to marvel still how the near Republic has caught up with the North in prosperity and appearance. The border towns …

Don’t underestimate him. Boris Johnson is making a powerful appeal by defying party traditions, but at the expense of the Union

Brian Walker on August 11, 2019, 11:26 am

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Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

Johnson and Corbyn will compete for power by selling out the Union

Brian Walker on August 7, 2019, 7:00 am

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All the hooh- hah from Polly Toynbee and others about forming a government of national unity to stop No Deal – forget it. Boris Johnson won’t even have to bother committing the constitutional crime my constitutional expert friends have been deploring. It’ll never get to that. Their best hope now is a general election but one called pretty much on Johnson’s terms and timing. Robert Peston’s trenchant piece saves me the bother of explaining. It’s so good I quote it …

An all-Ireland agri -food zone is old news and a sign of desperation. But first….

Brian Walker on August 4, 2019, 3:45 pm

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Let’s start on a happier note. – Leo’s appearance at Belfast Gay Pride in which he tactfully avoided grandstanding in his brief few words. “I had a real honour today to walk with Lord Hayward, who, along with Conor McGinn, put the legislation through the Commons and Lords to bring about marriage equality here in a few months’ time. So we really want to thank them. “What we see today in Belfast is Northern Ireland at its very best. Open, …

A real test for Boris Johnson. Will he convene the Intergovernmental Council at a time when an open breach over Brexit seems imminent?

Brian Walker on July 31, 2019, 6:53 pm

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We are in worse confusion over Brexit than anything in modern times, short of total breakdown and conflict. On one side there is a withdrawal agreement that will never pass this House of Commons. On the other there is the persistence with a backstop that threatens an outcome it is designed to prevent. This is not a rational situation. And yet the train is on course to hit the buffers. Boris Johnson will have satisfied himself that he has gone …

No Deal myths exploded and need for Direct Rule is confirmed in major report

Brian Walker on July 29, 2019, 6:59 am

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The authoritative Institute for Government has blasted most of the claims made for a No Deal strategy. In a new report it confirms the pressure on the Union and the need for Direct Rule. The head of NI civil service David Sterling recently addressed the institute and a leading member visited Belfast before issuing this report. The Union will come under unprecedented pressure: Johnson may well find that having left one political union, he spends an increasing proportion of his …

A clear Boris Johnson majority could be in Northern Ireland’s interests. What are the chances?

Brian Walker on July 28, 2019, 11:43 pm

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Planning for No Deal is the government’s No 1 priority, says Michael Gove. “So we need a new approach and a different relationship. Critically, we need to abolish the backstop and ensure we find a different way to handle trade, and other important relations, on the island of Ireland”. Some ERG hardliners would oppose a deal even if it eliminated the backstop. They sense a trap in alleged talk of EU concessions and plots around every corner in Whitehall, according …

As the threat of No Deal looms, the rhetoric is becoming raw

Brian Walker on July 26, 2019, 10:12 pm

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A century ago, two European states which talked like this at each other might have been on the brink of war. Without pushing it too far there is a tiny echo here of big bully Austria-Hungary leaning on little Serbia in the hot summer of 1914. (It will be remembered in the end Austria-Hungary imploded and Serbia expanded). Now no one of course is contemplating such a drastic breakdown. But how tragic and infuriating it is to be eating into …

Julian Smith’s role – to keep the DUP happy and step up plans for No Deal including direct rule

Brian Walker on July 25, 2019, 7:00 am

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Boris Johnson being ” clapped in” by staff on entering No 10 Julian Smith may not be a household name in Northern Ireland but his name resounds in every Conservative MP’s household and generally throughout Westminster. He was Theresa May’s last chief whip tasked with trying and failing three times to pass her withdrawal agreement. Bemoaning the scale of his task, he told the BBC’s Laura Kunnesberg in April.. that when his party failed to get a majority in the …

Royal Portrush: our biggest ever event, worldwide appreciation, old school nostalgia.. it’s got it all. Let’s give ourselves a big break

Brian Walker on July 18, 2019, 3:05 pm

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Amid all the and doom and gloom over Brexit, I can’t let this week pass without a hefty mention of the Open at Royal Portush. Here surely is a piece of British exceptionalism all can enjoy, the un-neurotic side of identity. Note that it’s called “the Open”. No “British” prefix is needed (although I see the Irish Times wouldn’t you know it has added it, just in case somebody thinks it’s the Uzbek Open). This piece of swagger was pointed …

Opening skirmishes continue before the desperate parliamentary battles to come..

Brian Walker on July 17, 2019, 5:52 pm

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Strictly speaking, the remarkable cross party initiative to exploit the vacuum at Stormont and introduce abortion reform for NI is not about Brexit. But as diametrically opposed views about the governance and values of the Union are in contention, the two are inextricably linked. The little Ulster version of the Union is being challenged at last. The abortion initiative shows that like the struggles over Brexit, considerable numbers of Conservatives are prepared to put values and country above the interests …

We’re heading for an autumn general election, the postponement of NI abortion reform and temporary direct rule

Brian Walker on July 17, 2019, 11:23 am

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No to time limits or unilateral escape hatches or all these elaborate devices, glosses, codicils and so on that you could apply to the backstop,” he told a debate hosted by The Sun on Monday.

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London