It’s squeaky bum time with a momentous deal in the balance

Are the DUP on the point of abandoning the constitutional analysis of the likely Brexit deal in favour of an economic one? Their terms are rumoured to be “billions, not millions” as a face saver. Not that the economic terms will be easy to reach. Remember that GB-NI trade is massively greater than cross border.  How will prices in NI be protected if EU tariffs are higher than British ones?  Will corporation tax finally  match the Republic’ s 12.5%? Goodness …

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In a single summit, the British- Irish relationship has revealed its potential for delivering a better future

I’ve just returned from a trip to Waiheke, New Zealand’s Rathlin, only with sweeping golden beaches, millionaire pads and bijou vineyards with terrific wine tasting and an oyster bar. The two islands have different charms. From my family visit to sane New Zealand, I can’t resist making a couple of Brexit points from afar. What seems to be emerging is a joint customs procedure between GB and the island of Ireland that technically keeps NI within the UK customs territory …

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Johnson’s offer – take it or leave it, two borders for four years, backed it’s claimed by the DUP with get out clause for the border in the Irish Sea for the (?) Assembly

The Daily Telegraph has been leaked – or rather handed –  extracts from Boris Johnson’s speech today-  and more importantly, the gist of the “deal” proposal he will send to Brussels and EU 27 including Ireland almost immediately afterwards. Summing it up, the comment from the paper’s Europe editor Peter Foster:   “It’s extraordinary  Two borders, for four years.” Boris Johnson will on Wednesday unveil a radical new ‘two borders for four years’ Brexit plan which will leave Northern Ireland in a …

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Boris Johnson to propose a No Deal deal, ask the EU to refuse an extension and challenge his tormentors to an election

It reads like a trailer for Boris Johnson’s leaders’ speech on Wednesday. The British  “non-papers”  have gelled into what is in effect a No Deal plan masquerading as a negotiating position. The BBC, RTE and the Daily Telegraph are all reporting that the UK government will propose checks on either side of the border but away from the border itself. As this in no way acts as a substitute for the backstop it will be rejected by Dublin and the …

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Deal or No Deal- and it’s looking more and more like the latter – the UK could still leave the EU on 31 October

Despite rumours to the contrary, this week will find it hard to match the turbulence of last week.  It’s pretty clear that at this point, the combined opposition majority can’t agree on a strategy to turf Johnson out of office. This could prove fatal to their main aim.  In the absence of a policy to unite around, passing a vote of confidence against him would only set a clock ticking that would defeat their essential aim of preventing the UK …

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The present state of Northern Ireland’s governance can no longer be ignored as October deadline looms, says the Institute for Government

The think tank closest to Whitehall the Institute for Government has published the most comprehensive report on the state of government in Northern Ireland since the breakdown of Stormont. Here is its executive summary. It deserves to be read in full. Here is the launch video. Not before time the IfG reminds the UK government of the perils of ignorance and neglect. Rather  generously, it attributes blame for failures as much to the  persistent and  puzzling ignorance of our affairs …

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Boris’s bullying and bluster blinds him to the chance of agreement behind the sound and fury. He is his own worst enemy

This exchange will be remembered… Paula Sheriff Dewsbury, Lab I genuinely do not seek to stifle robust debate, but this evening the Prime Minister has continually used pejorative language to describe an Act of Parliament that was passed by this House. I am sure you would agree, Mr Speaker, that we should not resort to the use of offensive, dangerous or inflammatory language about legislation that we do not like. We stand here, Mr Speaker, under the shield of our …

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The Supreme Court decision may be momentous but does it change anything over Brexit? Can a ” government of national unity” unite the country around a New Deal altogether?

Supreme Court President Lady Hale  The Supreme Court decision is a constitutional big deal, but has it changed  anything  in the Brexit timetable?  The Conservative party with most if not all of the dissidents included will not overthrow Boris Johnson and plunge themselves into another leadership crisis.  The DUP will endorse that.  If  Johnson wants to continue slash’n burn, he challenges  Corbyn to an immediate general election tomorrow.  This means he’s compelled to abandon withdrawal “ no if’s  not buts …

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Basic flaw in Labour’s referendum plan makes it unworkable

We have arrived at one of those moments when something that’s agonising lots of clever people for  years has a basic flaw which people caught up in controversy have been more or less  blind to.  Corbyn’s fence sitting has been well and truly exposed as absurd.  Why should the EU offer Labour a Brexit deal if most of its members want to campaign against it?  But if they somehow succeed, how could the leadership stay neutral on the deal they’ve …

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Brexit blues take over again as confusion reigns

Confused? Join the club which I believe includes the principals, the British and Irish governments and the EU.  The idea of “non-papers”  from the UK government expresses the confusion perfectly. Do they mean what they say or not?  Are they the last word in the last ditch or feints in a game ? We last left off on an upward note when Foster met Varadkar. The direction of travel seemed to be towards NI as a special economic zone between …

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Arlene Foster and Leo Varadkar must do business together on Brexit after last night’s ice breaker

The most important thing that Arlene Foster has just done is to talk to Leo Varadkar for the first time in ages. This was a meeting that was apparently kept under wraps until it had happened.  Only a short time before, the Dublin government were saying they were hoping for a meeting “soon.” This brief encounter  opens up the possibility of genuine north-south cooperation to help hammer out an agreement on the border – and perhaps the Assembly – that …

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Is this really it? ” Northern Ireland would effectively become a special economic zone inside both the UK and the EU”

Too much for the DUP, too little for Dublin and the EU but enough to keep going? The direction of travel has seemed clear for some time. These reports bring it out into the open. Johnson has been talking up a deal based on an expansion of  the original  agri foods proposal. An actual outline has been show to the EU negotiators, but not to  take  home with them . (Why did they tamely agree to only a sneak preview?)  …

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Only if Johnson comes up with a firm proposal can the DUP’s true position be revealed

Despite Arlene Foster’s public denials, the Times stands by its story that  ahead of any return to Stormont ,the DUP would support the idea of the Assembly signing off on a deal to replace the backstop that would involve some ( no doubt de-dramatised) “checks in the Irish Sea” . This is based on the hope that DUP all-Ireland agreement on agri foods is only a stage on a journey rather than the final destination. It would mean the DUP …

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Westminster’s spin operation against the DUP is designed to take the heat off Johnson – and it may be working

Kites are flown and backstop rows rumble on…  The supporters of a Deal are trying to elide cross border harmonisation over agriculture with support for only a slightly tweaked  backstop,  but the DUP are having none of it. The spinning inspired by Downing St is having one intriguing effect – to allow Boris Johnson to reduce the impression of united opposition against him and allow him  to appear as the new champion of a Deal, boosted by the fact that …

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Now it’s two to one in UK courts declaring parliament’s suspension not a matter for the courts

The Belfast Telegraph reports  A legal challenge in Belfast High Court that argued the Government’s Brexit strategy will damage the Northern Ireland peace process has been dismissed. Lord Justice Bernard McCloskey delivered his ruling on Thursday morning on three joined cases against Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s handling of the UK’s European Union exit. In his written judgment, the judge said: “I consider the characterisation of the subject matter of these proceedings as inherently and unmistakably political to be beyond plausible …

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“Potential lifeline” for Harland and Wolff amid the backstop blues

  The FT reports on a potential lifeline to build Royal Navy frigates for Harland and Wolff.   A consortium led by defence group Babcock International has won the competition to build new frigates for the Royal Navy, securing hundreds of jobs at British shipyards, including in Northern Ireland and Scotland. Under the original proposal, the plan was to assemble the vessels at Rosyth using “blocks” built by H&W and Ferguson. It remained unclear if the role of H&W and …

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The De Souza case has major constitutional ramifications for citizens’ rights in Northern Ireland

Emma DeSouza personal photo The Guardian reports Fundamental questions over the enforceability of the 1998 Good Friday agreement have been raised in a test case over the residency rights of an American who is married to a Derry woman. Emma DeSouza found herself at the centre of a legal battle after her application in 2015 for a residence card for her US-born husband, Jake DeSouza, was rejected. Any EU citizen living in the UK in accordance with EU regulations can bring their family …

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Backstop fever has subsided, but the virus is still live and it could spread…

This must be the barmiest idea emerging from the current bout of backstop fever – an “exclusive” from Cathy Newman of Channel 4 News.    Boris Johnson has told government officials to explore the possibility of building a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland.. The prime minister wants to know “where this money could come from” and “the risks around the project” – which appear to include “WW2 munitions in the Irish Sea…” The DUP, the party supporting the Conservatives …

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The imminence of direct rule underlines the fact that the SDLP are wrong not to back Margaret Ritchie as a member of the House of Lords

The SDLP still haven’t managed to shake off  strategic ineptitude. They’ve   achieved the worst of both worlds by wishing former SDLP leader and MP Margaret Ritchie well but “ fundamentally disagree” with her decision to go to the Lords. This is in fact an enlightened  move by Margaret which deserves SDLP backing. The SDLP attack Sinn Fein for persisting with abstention from the Commons when their voting presence might have made a difference in narrower Brexit votes.  The absence of …

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Will Arlene be confronted with an amended backstop today? How would she react? (No prizes!)

I was watching the Commons feed last night and missed Nick Watt’s report on Newsnight, raising the hare  that Boris Johnson was  going further than an all-Ireland agri-zone and was about to revive the NI specific backstop.  Sam McBride of The Newsletter was watching. Last night’s report suggests that Mr Johnson may be preparing to abandon the DUP for the second time in six months, despite the party having ensured he became Prime Minister..  Newsnight said Mr Johnson was understood …

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