The voters sense that the DUP and Sinn Fein are all at sea. What are they to make of it?

Pity the local voter, trying to discover a clear outcome in this election.  Anoraks may shiver with anticipation at the prospect of change in a couple of local seats but what are they claiming for turnout? Who could blame the people for staying away?  Voting for the Union or Remain or bringing a border poll closer doesn’t come close to guaranteeing any of these outcomes.  The secretary of state has floated the idea of deciding on an Assembly election in January.  This is no more likely than any of the promises made by any party until we see the shape of the new Parliament and doubly unlikely as nothing is likely to change in local politics to justify it. A major joint British-Irish agreement on the way ahead would be required first. Is this likely in the five week aftermath of the election which includes the Christmas break?

Would the loss of one or two seats, although no doubt hailed as a great psychological blow to the DUP,  be likely create a paradigm shift over the Irish Language Act or any other confected test?   Critics of Sinn Fein will claim that any reduction in turnout will put pressure on them to return to the Assembly; but the opposite is equally plausible, that the voters are saying unity is the only real alternative, or else continued political drift while they get on with life (an option not to be ignored) .  For the DUP the slogan “voting for the Union” has never had less meaning unless it’s about circling the wagons against a border poll. And whatever you do, don’t mention “the border in the Irish Sea.”

A border poll is the one outcome that is in the hands of local voters.  Mary Lou Mc Donald has called for a border poll within five years. The vision is starting to emerge  but she has so far neglected to provide the scenario.   How is demand for a border poll to be tested? She seems to be calling for consensus in the Republic over it first and the necessary concurrent referendum there. That ought to make it a paramount issue in next year’s election in the Republic. But will it?  The immediate challenge  for Sinn Fein is to take up the challenge of an Assembly election in the New Year and include the demand for a border poll in the manifesto  during the life of its mandate, whether it sits or not.  They should promise this now.  It ought to flush out the variables within nationalism and the other blocs.  Have Sinn Fein got the nerve?

On a return to the Assembly there’s a fundamental conundrum. Is power sharing a necessary stage towards unity or its alternative?  You can argue it either way. Sinn Fein showing responsibility in restoring government along with a vision of unity might increase its appeal among growing numbers of “others”.  This is what so many commentators are telling us. The inevitability wagon has started to roll. So what are Sinn Fein afraid of?   But the DUP showing equivalent responsibility by adopting the strategy everybody other than the DUP is recommending over Brexit could save the Union. They cancel each other out and neither looks like being adopted for this election.

Will the two parties break out of the bind they’ve imposed on themselves or stick with noisy inertia?  Will this election produce verdicts not so much in terms of seats gained or lost but votes cast tactically that strengthen the third way supporting cooperation in government rather than dreams of the only just elusive nirvana? Answers to those questions seem to be the best we can hope for.

Next time well take a look at what the Conservatives and Labour are proposing for Brexit’s impact on the future of the Union.

Brian Walker

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London