I’m as out of touch as it’s possible to be on the same planet, but for me, behind all the churn, the general election situation is brutally simple.
Boris Johnson has a more or less united party behind him, focused on winning the election. He has a deal he can put to the next Parliament.
Labour is divided, over Brexit, a second referendum, the party’s wider direction and its leadership. It is also unprepared for the campaign even though the hapless Corbyn loves campaigning.
Predictions that most English voters will vote tactically for Remain or Leave rather than by party will not generally be fulfilled. People are only able to vote for a party and no cross party ticket for Remain exists, although Farage’s Brexit party may resort to targeting a limited number of seats. Differential turnout that can be explained by the degree of commitment to Remain or Leave may matter in a few seats.
In Scotland, even though the fortunes of the SNP are turning slightly, they may even win a clean sheet.
Overall, the Tories may lose 20 and win 60, a net gain of 40. They may just edge an overall majority.
In Northern Ireland, this is not the occasion for bold experiments. Leave that to any future Assembly election where there are more seats to play with.
The Ulster unionists would not easily be forgiven by liberal unionists for letting in the DUP in North Down, if they stand against Sylvia Hermon. It beats me why they didn’t try to reconcile with her long ago – sexism runs deep. Equally traditional unionists would not forgive them if they stand against Dodds in North Belfast and Finucane takes the seat for abstentionist Sinn Fein, at a juncture when Westminster has shown how much it directly affects daily life.
The obvious trade off is to give the UUs a clear run in FST and the DUP in North Belfast. This is without prejudice to divergence in local elections.
Absentionism at a crucial time when NI votes can make an obvious difference at Westminster is the crucial issue for nationalism followed by a border poll.
Foyle is the test case where the SDLP leader can scarcely afford not to run although the sitting MP who snatched it from Mark Durkan has the advantage of incumbency.
Supporters of third way politics should have a punt in East and South Belfast. In the latter, if Sinn Fein were to stand aside, the result could be interesting. No reason here for both the DUP and UUs not to stand.
These thoughts may prove to be wildly inaccurate but once the brief campaign settles down, I have a hunch that the default positions will emerge more strongly. The alternatives lack coherence and clarity.
I say this as someone who abhors Brexit, believes the Tories do not deserve another chance and that the DUP and Sinn Fein are open to greater challenge since they won their leading roles a decade and a half ago – but not significantly in this Westminster election where voter choice can so easily be frustrated by the electoral system and the limited number of seats.
Students of the frontstop should read Cliff Taylor’s Irish Times explainer of what Brexit now means for Ireland south and north. So much depends on the post Brexit final settlement supposedly due by the end of 2020 but will surely take longer. Not much will change in the meantime.
BBC Economics editor Faisal Islam’s answers to the question are penetrating but inconclusive: will NI “exports” to GB need checks? The answers vary according to which minister is answering for which topic. But Downing St keep insisting against more expert analysis that the checks will be either few – much as now for agri standards- or none at all. A Teeny weeney number may just be needed in the opposite direction to prevent the adulteration of the single market….
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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