Is there an election on? DUP And Sinn Fein leaders are sounding optimistic notes to tempt waverers into the polling stations. Both party leaderships are also forecasting a return to Stormont any day now – without troubling us with the details of a deal. Here we also have the astounding phenomenon of Nigel Dodds and Mary Lou McDonald both speaking in favour of Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement – a worse deal that Theresa May’s and which they were condemning only a couple of days ago. Both polar opposites are behaving as if they agree on one thing – that Boris Johnson will form the next government. The DUP will want his victory to depend on them for a majority; while Sinn Fein will be praying for the opposite, hoping that their absence from Westminster will not be the decider that keeps Jeremy Corbyn out of Downing St.
“There is no doubt that if we reach a tariff-free trade deal with the European Union, that will eliminate the need for most if not all customs checks,” Mr Dodds said.
“I sincerely hope that will be the case. It should certainly be the stated objective of the British government – and indeed the Irish government, to be fair.”
He added: “Certainly that would go a long way, in the long run, to alleviate most of these problems about checks.”
However, Mr Dodds warned that the party would also need a unionist veto to be included in the deal to ensure had their backing. “That deals with the customs stuff, it doesn’t deal with the regulatory stuff and the consent issue, which is very important.”
Writing in An Phoblacht Mrs McDonald said that Sinn Fein feel the Executive could be up and running again by December 25 or early in the New Year.
Mrs McDonald said it was Sinn Fein’s view that “a deal is possible and has always been possible”. She said it was time for agreement to be reached on rights issues, including an Irish Language Act, legacy issues and the reform of Stormont’s petition of concern mechanism. However the Sinn Fein leader said that “the issues we face are not new and the heavy lifting has already been done”.
She cited the St Andrews and Stormont House agreements as providing resolutions for Irish language and legacy issues.
Mrs McDonald spoke in favour of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal saying the “the worst aspects of Brexit are mitigated by the current withdrawal agreement”.
She challenged the DUP to return to Stormont “in real partnership, guided by respect, equality, consent, power-sharing and good governance that are the foundations of the (Good Friday) Agreement.”
Speaking on Friday, DUP leader Arlene Foster expressed her hope Stormont could return after the General Election on December 12.
However, Mrs Foster told an election hustings event hosted by business leaders that she couldn’t do it on her own.
“I think there is a renewed optimism about a shared space, I hope that Michelle shares that,” the Fermanagh and South Tyrone MLA said.
“People say to me, ‘can you work with Michelle O’Neill’, of course I can work with Michelle O’Neill, because she has a mandate as deputy first minister, I have a mandate as potential first minister, we have to work together for the good of everyone in society.”
Nigel Dodds went on to say.. that Mr Johnson failed to address the DUP’s concerns about the Brexit deal because he did not understand the complexities of the Good Friday Agreement, also known as the Belfast Agreement.
In particular, Mr Dodds says he was “alarmed and frustrated” by Mr Johnson’s belief that the issue could be solved with a simple majority vote in the Northern Ireland Assembly, rather than parallel consent from both unionists and nationalists.
“When I asked him this in the House of Commons, he seemed somewhat bemused – ‘We had a majority in the referendum, why can’t we have a majority vote [in the Northern Ireland Assembly].’
“Well, sorry, if we’re going down that route there is a whole lot of things that we could change about the Belfast Agreement at the stroke of a pen. But that was never agreed by the parties.”
So maybe there are still a few hoops to jump through first…
As BBC NI Economics editor John Campbell tweeted yesterday…
The deal means that NI will remain part of a ‘single regulatory zone’ with the Republic of Ireland, a zone that will apply EU rules… A few countries, such as New Zealand, have a deal with the EU where only 1% of consignments are checked. It is possible that the UK could negotiate a similar deal but it would not be able to eliminate checks entirely unless the whole of the UK was going to stay in the Single Market
There is a second issue to do with tariffs. Goods which enter NI from GB and which are to be consumed in NI will not have tariffs charged. But some classes of goods which are deemed ‘at risk’ of being moved onward to the Republic or the wider EU could be subject to tariffs… f those goods are shown to have been consumed in Northern Ireland then the tariff can be rebated. The definition of ‘at risk’ and the rebate system will have to be negotiated during the post-Brexit transition period. If there is a zero tariff UK-EU deal the tariff issue is largely addressed. But there will still have to be customs declarations on GB to NI trade. Some (small) proportion of that trade would also have to be subject to checks.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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