Brian Walker – Page 18 – Slugger O'Toole

The threat of annihilation in a general election will be Boris’s strongest card

Brian Walker on June 11, 2019, 2:45 pm

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( This is considerably rewritten in the light of the news that Boris Johnson will make his public pitch tomorrow, Wednesday)

What a depressing business it is to be one of the 60 million plus UK voters looking on while the Conservative leadership candidates go through their hoops. It has little to do with discovering where the real world of Brexit lies. As the Duke of Wellington is supposed to have observed, surveying his troops before Waterloo: ” I don’t know what they do to the enemy but by God they frighten me.”

For candidates, the blunt truth is that campaigning for the leadership is a different exercise from the big encounter with the EU. But it has to be won first and different even contradictory tactics are required. The impact on politicians ‘ wider credibility is ignored.

Between now and next Thursday 20 June at the latest, it’s all about whether two hard line No Dealers, or one no Dealer and one so called Remainer will make it onto the ballot for party members to chose between them and for the whole process to be wrapped up on 20 July.

In personality terms this means a choice to put before the membership between two arch Brexiteers Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab, or Boris Johnson and one principled anti- No Dealer from among the cabinet ministers Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid, with Hunt – (“Theresa May with smarm”) currently having the edge.

Next Thursday’s choice – before it goes to the membership – is critical. Two hard Brexiteers makes a No Deal departure more likely. One from each side suggests MPs would tolerate a longer search for agreement with a Deal at the end. Johnson will avoid Theresa May’s mistake of negotiating by remote control through a civil servant and isolating herself from the cabinet. If Johnson works for cabinet unity and chooses a cabinet colleague like Jeremy Hunt or even his old nemesis Michael Gove over Dominc Raab, he will be signalling a willingness to compromise on the apparently hard line of his Sunday Times interview.

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

Northern Ireland is a place as far apart as ever in the UK national media

Brian Walker on June 10, 2019, 9:13 am

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“Northern Ireland is boring” has been every London news editor’s motto for a lifetime. News by definition requires new developments to be “News” and what was seen from newsdesks as the endless monotony of the Troubles was a killer not just of people but circulations. And weren’t there bigger and better conflicts all over the place to use up the limited stock of compassion? Remember the cynical old maxim: “one killing in England is worth a hundred in Northern Ireland.” …

Northern Ireland’s justice system weathers the storms of controversy in the continuing vacuum from government

Brian Walker on June 7, 2019, 1:05 pm

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Lord Chief Justice Sir Declan Morgan Still no word of a decision on the Legacy Bill and no surprise there either. The justice system ploughs on with handling legacy cases against a background of continuing controversy. The Daily Telegraph’s campaign against former soldiers having to face trial continues, with the “disgusted” reaction by appellant 78 year old Dennis Hutchings to the Supreme Court’s decision that he will face trial by a judge alone. The real objection, held by a strong …

Michael Gove would personally lead the Stormont talks and replace the backstop with a “Stormont lock”. Could it work?

Brian Walker on June 6, 2019, 3:23 pm

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Even as the belief grows that the race to be the next prime minister is Boris Johnson’s to lose, the contest is actually hotting up. His main challenger at the moment is Michael Gove the champion who betrayed Boris last time and is now doing his best to differentiate from Boris as the Brexit candidate with realism. In an atmosphere of near hysteria about the future of the Conservative party, Gove has injected a dangerous note of realism by admitting …

“Nixon goes to China” is the right example to follow for Brexit. The Tories may know it already

Brian Walker on June 5, 2019, 9:19 pm

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Nixon goes to China Talking of the wisdom of US presidents… rivalling Trump’s lunatic assumption that our border problem is like his Mexican wall, the conservative right persists in believing that the future of the UK lies in a free trade agreement under WTO rules reached by the end of October. Steve Baker, the deputy chair of the ERG has produced a plan called A Clean Managed Brexit which relies on negotiating a free trade agreement “but with practical contingency …

Has a human rights culture gone too far? The subject of this year’s BBC Reith Lectures

Brian Walker on June 4, 2019, 9:32 pm

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Lord Sumption On what authority do we create “a rights based society”? Is everything we call rights, actually rights or just preferences? Who arbitrates between competing rights? In what way are rights superior to ordinary law? These are basic questions which lie behind the claim often made in Northern Ireland that all rights are beyond legitimate dispute. They also lie at the heart of this year’s series of BBC Reith Lectures being given by Jonathan Sumption, a recently retired Supreme …

Tory leadership candidates are still playing party games over Brexit and the border

Brian Walker on June 3, 2019, 1:05 pm

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Tory leadership contenders are still tying themselves in knots over Deal or No Deal and Brexit and the border. The latest is Home Secretary Sajid Javid on the Marr show. Sucking up to the Brexit militants of the party rank and file he would Leave on October 31 – no question – except – “I’m not a dictator I believe in parliamentary democracy” (phew what a relief !) .i.e. the Commons would stop him if he tried, but he doesn’t …

Cracking the deadlock over an Irish language Act will test whether a new political order is emerging

Brian Walker on June 1, 2019, 8:11 pm

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If a Tele article by Nelson Mc Causland and Newsletter reports are anything to go by, agreement on an Irish Language Act and therefore the return of Stormont are as far away as ever. The problem remains over an acht na Gaelige that stands alone. As unionists perceive it, this constitutes a claim superior to their cultural needs. It was supposed to have been sorted by the draft agreement of February last year but the DUP refused to sign off, …

A ray of hope from Brussels to which Westminster’s clamorous politicians should pay heed

Brian Walker on May 31, 2019, 12:05 pm

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Time and again, the academic critics have taken apart the British approach to the Brexit negotiations with relish. But with the UK at bay and Westminster in pieces, is it not time to examine whether the EU can stretch out to help, not only out of pity but common interest? The critics’ analysis of the UK’s approach is often forensically compelling. But it’s also obvious that most are cheerleaders not only for the EU’s approach but the cause of …

The implications of Alliance’s successes for how our people are represented and governed can mean win:win all round

Brian Walker on May 30, 2019, 3:12 pm

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Good to see Newton following up the implications of Alliance’s electoral successes From the Irish Times Sinn Féin and the DUP both want to preserve the veto for their own purposes. How sustainable would that be if Alliance doubled its Assembly representation, given it has just doubled its council and European votes? In theory, none of this would break the rules. In practice, it would make designation – a foundation of devolution – look redundant and perverse. Alliance’s breakthrough could …

The Tory leadership debate is becoming vicious, with Brexit realism sidelined

Brian Walker on May 30, 2019, 2:27 pm

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It’s painful to watch Tory leadership runners tying themselves up in knots over the choice of Deal or No Deal. Some of them are ducking and diving, others go in for the full kamikaze. The situation is so dire that the Chancellor Philip Hammond is offering himself as the fallback voice of sanity candidate. All of them so obviously want to keep sweet the hard line activists who’ll decide their fate that it’s almost unkind to keep baiting them. But …

Brexit reality has yet to dawn with the Conservatives and Labour. It will get worse before it gets better

Brian Walker on May 28, 2019, 6:16 pm

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As a result of their severe beating in the European election that was itself the product of their internal disarray, the two parties of UK government are evolving into the Conservatives as the party of Leave and Labour the party of Remain. Newly conventional wisdom says the middling choices are disappearing between the main parties and within them. But the starkness of the choices – if that’s what they prove to be – is making them no easier to accept. …

Without getting carried away, we should dare to hope that the Alliance surge will spark a positive response from the DUP and Sinn Fein

Brian Walker on May 28, 2019, 11:56 am

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Photo-PA After the European election – zombie or real life, who knows? – we’re in the even odder position of politics in Northern Ireland looking ever so slightly healthier than the politics of the UK as a whole. I compare NI with “UK” rather than “GB” because the Westminster scene presents the DUP with tough choices I’ll come to later. While I haven’t heard a cheep from the Stormont talks as they (presumably) prepare to resume, the Alliance surge in …

Shame on the London papers for ignoring the Ballymurphy inquest, while they support the campaign for a limited army amnesty

Brian Walker on May 26, 2019, 5:56 pm

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Roy Greenslade is both a supporter of Sinn Fein and writing in the Guardian, a fair minded and expert critic of his old profession. I mention this to anticipate an irrelevant smear. On the reporting of the Ballymurphy inquest, he’s absolutely right. A story that matches in horror the Birmingham pub bombs or the abuses in cause celebres such as Hillsborough or the murder of Stephen Lawrence is largely ignored because the initials “IRA” are involved. The old reflex …

Border poll ferment hits a high spot in the Euros exit poll

Brian Walker on May 25, 2019, 8:18 pm

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The Red C exit poll records an astounding result on Irish Unity – so amazing that it’s presented as tucked in after another positive result on the Irish language, as if they don’t quite believe it. Newton tweets Support for a united Ireland rises as support for Sinn Fein falls. Perhaps the southern electorate is more sophisticated on this point than it gets credit for. What’s happening to them down there, so drunk with euphoria about what a terrific …

A hard Brexit PM must face reality- take up May’s WAB or prepare to rat on Northern Ireland, with DUP support

Brian Walker on May 25, 2019, 1:08 am

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We will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal.” This is Boris Johnson’s mission statement, fresh out of the leadership traps . Typical Boris, brave or giving an unnessary hostage to fortune, depending on your point of view. Even at this crucial moment, Boris doesn’t do caution. The collapse of Theresa May’s premiership could bring about an even more volatile and dangerous phase, as the latest deadline of October 31 approaches. The euro election results will show …

After Theresa.. how to avoid more of the same

Brian Walker on May 23, 2019, 7:00 am

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As today’s Euro elections consign the two main parties of the UK to minority positions, their struggle to reclaim relevance will begin. The parties are obsessed with themselves more than with sorting Brexit but sorting Brexit will remain the acid test of survival. As Peston points out: YouGov shows backing for a hard or no-deal Brexit at 40% via intentions to vote for the Brexit Party (a staggering 37%) and UKIP.Whereas support for a referendum would ALSO be 40%, aggregating …

British soldiers should remain subject to the rule of law wherever they served, argues former paratroop colonel

Brian Walker on May 22, 2019, 11:39 am

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Colonel David Benest CO 2 Para.1994-97 writing in the Guardian… I have read both the Widgery and the Saville reports into Bloody Sunday, and for reasons not well explained the responsibility of the army chain of command seems wholly absent. In fairness to the army, most officers and soldiers, for most of the time, have performed commendably in very difficult circumstance between 1969 and 2007 – the formal end of British forces’ operations in Northern Ireland. Some have not. And in the event …

Cabinet confusion and infighting continues over an amnesty for soldiers accused of offences in Northern Ireland

Brian Walker on May 15, 2019, 10:04 pm

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Penny Mordaunt Defence Secretary As reported by the BBC, the new Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt has announced that a new law providing legal protection for soldiers “ on the battlefield” would not apply to Northern Ireland. This was in line with an earlier statement by the NI Secretary Karen Bradley. Ms Mordaunt said it would prevent “repeated or unfair investigations”. The protections, which will be put to a public consultation, would not apply to alleged offences in Northern Ireland. The …

The crisis in the suicide rate matches the worst record of Troubles killings

Brian Walker on May 13, 2019, 7:13 am

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As someone who lives outside Northern Ireland, I’m all too aware of how easy it is to be out of touch. I knew in general terms of the mental heath crisis that rages everywhere. But this statistic came as a powerful shock. Am I alone? Is this one of the many ills of society that’s more or less taken for granted? “In the first 18 months without our devolved government, 463 people in Northern Ireland died by suicide.” This is …