Westminster stuns the local parties with the challenge: pass abortion and equal marriage laws or we’ll do it instead

You’ve read about the campaigns. Now read about the victory. The day started  with an anti climax. Dominic Grieve’s bid to thwart any attempt  to deny parliament a vote on No Deal wasn’t called by the Speaker. The attempts by Co Armagh born Labour MP’s Conor McGinn and Stella Creasy to legislate for abortion and same sex marriage were certain to fail for antagonising the DUP,  for coming at the wrong time with all this Brexit stuff about and for being …

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A rare event. Northern Ireland is at the heart of a Commons challenge today to prevent a No Deal Brexit

Dominic Grieve QC MP Boris Johnson is expected to become  PM  just one day before the Commons rises for the summer recess, leaving only a few weeks  to challenge him  “not bluffing”  over quitting the EU at Hallowe’en, deal or no deal.  In perhaps the only available opportunity before the recess begins on 25 July, Northern Ireland is at the heart of moves by dissenting Conservatives to try to stop him today.  The opportunity created is  what would otherwise be …

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We’re in crisis now. Armageddon on Brexit and the Union may take a little longer

So the Stormont talks are in limbo. Why should they be different?  Everything else is, including the future of the Union. The reputation of failed prime ministers can rise after they retire defeated and the problems continue to confound their successors.  Even Theresa May is starting to look just a bit better.  Straight after he lost two elections in quick succession in 1974 ,Ted Heath’s reputation  as a statesman seemed secure when his  historic achievement of  EEC entry  that would …

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Laws against flags on lamp posts are mere gestures unless the unionist parties start championing local people’s interests with the UVF and UDA

Each marching season begins with familiar tensions and flashpoints old and new. They combine in the modest environment of Cantrell Close, back for a third year with the added twist of the Soldier F campaign. Legal action is the knee jerk reaction, superficially attractive until it comes to examining where the law stands and how to enforce it. The civil servants opposed  to it needn’t  worry; they cannot exercise powers they haven’t got. But is legal action  the right response …

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Government moves to damp down No Deal panic created by leadership bidding war

The bidding war between Johnson and Hunt grows more depressing by the day. The ideal differentiation would have been Hunt the rationalist pointing out the huge risks of Johnson’s “ hell or high water” date with the 31 October deadline. But this is no seminar. It’s a struggle to woo a tiny electorate supposedly in a frenzy to Leave  before the victor confronts two very different electorates in turn, first the Commons and then if he gets that far, the …

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Come clean. The chances of compensation of victims of the Libyan connection are vanishingly small and the UK government won’t left a finger to help them

I’ve had only the slightest brush personally with the Libyan connection, the notorious gun running relationship between the crazed dictator Muammar Gaddafi and the IRA which finally ended in another of Tony Blair’s diplomatic exercises. In one of the later lulls in the Troubles, in a fit of optimism they re-opened the city gates of Derry after a siege of a quarter of a century. My old family home was in the street at one side of the courthouse right …

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Johnson and Hunt may pose as champions of the Union but if elected the winner is not automatically Prime Minister

Photo. Getty images   Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt continue to vie with each other  in a bidding war which includes who is the greater  verbal champion of the Union above all else. Both of them claim to be able to square the circle of Union First and No Deal  but No Deal if necessary. On the Marr Show Hunt said he would do both,  but then I lost track of his reasoning. As nobody bothered to  report what exactly he …

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Both sides are now contemplating a physical border. What will stop it?

The looming prospect of No Deal is producing all sorts of ferment, with the focus on  the clashing red lines over the Border.  This was always the case but is now made more acute by trying to extract meaning from Boris Johnson’s smokescreen of bumbling towards victory in the Tory leadership election. Will anything he says bear the force of unbreakable promises to his electorate? The optimistic answer is probably very few, but by its nature it can’t be relied …

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Out of left field. . Boris’s backers in the media are talking up a new deal from Brussels – if he starts talking sense as PM and can deliver the Commons

Jean Claude Juncker

Bruno Waterfield of the Times sees potentially more movement from the EU than the  ultra Europhiles seem to think possible – provided EU 27 are convinced  Johnson can sell an amended deal to the Commons

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The DUP may have to chose between the Union and a hard Brexit

When Boris Johnson says we must leave the EU on 31 October  “do or die,” he’s suspected of pandering to party voters.  When Arlene Foster says “the Union of the United Kingdom is more important than any other political aspiration”  I for one believe her.   But the gap between them may be widening.  At a Policy Exchange seminar yesterday Foster said “ “you have to keep no deal on the table to get a better deal…and we shouldn’t go for …

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There is a case for Boris Johnson, the only one able to bring off the biggest screeching U -Turn of our times

Why does Boris rise and rise if he’s so hopeless? It’s the burning question. Talented  bloke,  on form a stylish and witty writer  who has earned  600k  in just over a year. The evidence suggests a Jekyll and Hyde character with egotistical  and sociopathic tendencies. Not exactly unusual in leaders.  A philanderer who compelled a girlfriend to have an abortion – like Lloyd George “the man who won the war” in 1918. I’ve been looking at the case in his …

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Brexit breakthrough in Prosperity UK report? No Deal rejected and the backstop stays until final deal, says group including Foster, Dodds and Rees Mogg. But thumbs down from NI business leaders

A leading Tory Brexit adviser tipped for No 10 who was part of the team who wrote the Prosperity UK report has told a news conference that No Deal is “not politically acceptable”. The report accepts the backstop but its recommendations are designed to ensure it never happens. The verdict coming in is that  Prosperity UK’s interim report is a serious piece of work devoid of unicorns.  It this catches on, it will be a breakthrough. Singham’s  line sounds the …

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New Tory proposals on the backstop are no magic bullet but worth discussing to check a Hallowe’en crashout

How  realistic are the “alternative arrangements” proposed by the Prosperity UK report backed by Tory MPs desperate to avoid a complete crash out and political meltdown by the autumn? The answer –   in the details, less than seemed likely months ago. They are for the most part familiar ingredients in a slightly different recipe.   But details are not the main point. What matters more is the legal framework.  We’re struck with the basic bone of contention. Prosperity UK believe they …

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Boris stonewalls for dear life

Daily Mail splash  Can any politician survive such scrutiny?  Hard to complain when the dastardly deed is almost live on camera like Mark Field’s collaring of the Greenpeace protestor –               And what about  Boris’s  row with his girlfriend, loud enough to be recorded through the wall? Will  either politician survive the twitter storm?  There’s simply no way of knowing.  In this supposedly more tolerant age the tumbrils  roll for those whom we  take …

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Bryson and McKay in the dock over Nama corruption allegations made to the Assembly

Photo Mal McCann No comment is necessary or indeed permitted apart from this from Allison Morris, the Irish News reporter with the exclusive.. The PPS warns: As court proceedings will shortly commence, the PPS would ask that there is no reporting, commentary or sharing of information on-line which would in any way prejudice these proceedings”. “A trial directly related to politics couldn’t have came at a worse time for both the DUP and Sinn Féin. In a place where one …

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Boris fudging over Hallowe’en deadline likely to end in general election

As the Tory leadership contest passes to the party’s version of the people, we may expect Boris Johnson’s approach to Brexit to come under scrutiny for the first time. We only know from the last vacuous TV debate that he like Gove and Hunt cannot “guarantee “ leaving on  31 October.  However  EU sources are saying they would only grant a deadline extension for a general election which would compel a halt to proceedings .  The whole pretence of a …

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Paul Bew recycles his backstop plan to fill the Tories’ comprehension gap. “Stop punching below your weight.”

So have we got any closer to a cunning plan for getting rid of the backstop? In last night’s leader candidates’ debate and in this morning’s hustings before the Westminster lobby, plenty of macho but no real meat. Michael Gove says there is no candidate in the race who understands the politics of Ireland better than he does – he really does . He says he would look for other ways of avoiding the backstop.  How well did he do? …

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No Deal would mean ” a blockade” of Northern Ireland. Is anybody listening? Does anybody care?

David Sterling, head of the Northern Ireland civil service Tony Connelly RTE’s ace Europe editor, has pulled together in its full awfulness the impact of No Deal on the Northern Ireland economy, amounting  “to a full blockade.”  Clearly well briefed by officials in Belfast, Dublin and Brussels, the message isn’t getting through in London where it matters most at the moment. Just consider this for a wee opener…. When the original exit date of 29 March approached, officials fretted that …

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It’s a big ask, but soft Brexiteers are now asking Ireland to give ground on the backstop

Vernon Bogdanor is one of Britain’s leading constitutional experts. Although he voted to Remain, his current efforts are concentrating on finding orderly constitutional means for breaking the Brexit deadlock.   Vernon is no hard Brexiteer sweeping aside Ireland’s case. He is utterly sympathetic to Ireland’s interests. Today he calls the idea of shutting Parliament down for three months to  prevent MPs blocking a No Deal withdrawal on 31 October “ an outrage. The ensuing demonstrations would make the People’s Vote march …

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Yesterday’s Commons vote shows how hard it could be to stop a No Deal Brexit – even with a vote on a general election

On the eve of the first ballot, we have a full house of leadership pitches at last.  Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, and Esther McVey are committed to leaving come what may  at Hallowe’en. Only Rory Stewart refuses to put No Deal “on the table”. All the others pretend to their party electorate and perhaps to themselves, that they can swing some sort of agreement in Brussels without a hard border in Ireland. Let’s pay them an undeserved compliment and say …

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