“Die in a ditch?” It could come to that. And Ireland hunkers down for a new border

As long as 24 hours ago, Boris Johnson seemed to have the edge in a deadly struggle with the new anti No Deal Commons majority. But with a Tory backlash mounting over sacking of  21 senior rebels and the influence of Dominic Cummings;  and with Tory traditionalist  MP resignations coming thick and fast led by brother Jo, I’m no longer so sure. Squeezed by the new majority, Johnson  looked to be buckling under the pressure at his dire appearance at a police training college in Wakefield . Robert Peston puts Johnson almost in the ditch already      

A conspicuously rattled and tired Boris Johnson – flanked surrealy by the police in Wakefield – just said he would “rather be dead in a ditch”than obey the expected new law that would force him to ask the EU for a Brexit delay.

Which carries only two implications.

Johnson could quit as Prime Minister before the EU summit on October 17 and bequeath to some other temporary prime minister the gift of suing the EU for a Brexit delay.

That could happen, but honestly I don’t believe Johnson will ever voluntarily quit Downing Street.

.. more likely – and some of his Brexiter supporters are urging him to do it – he could break the new law, refuse to sign the letter requesting a Brexit delay and dare Parliament to impeach him, under ancient and rarely used rules.

It seems extraordinary that senior Tory MPs tell me that a serving prime minister should break the law, rather than break a promise that under no circumstances would he fail to take the UK out of the EU by October 31.

The choice is between keeping his word or disobeying the law of the land.

“He can’t sign the letter” said a Tory grandee and former Cabinet minister.

“He has to precipitate a very real constitutional crisis”.

There are less apocalyptical alternatives.

The Guardian calls it ” winning by resigning” to expose the lack of an agreed leader for the rebel alliance and Jeremy Corbyn’s unacceptability.

What constitutes Johnson’s loyalty test now?  For some in the government ranks, it is to oppose the backstop and only the backstop. But if this was not enough to whip in the “Spartans”, ( the new moniker for the ERG) who really hanker for No Deal, then they would suffer the same fate as the liberal 21 and face expulsion from an ever diminishing, ever narrowing Conservative party.

But what’s this from Michael Gove, the minister in charge of No Deal contingencies?

Michael Gove said he would vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal again if it returned to Parliament. The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, who is in charge of no deal planning, told MPs the deal was a “compromise”. His comments came the day after MPs passed an amendment paving the way for a return of Mrs May’s deal to Parliament.

Appearing before the Commons Exiting the European Union Select Committee, Mr Gove pointed out he had repeatedly voted for Mrs May’s deal despite having concerns about the backstop. However he insisted Boris Johnson could secure a deal with the European Union which would be a “material improvement” on his predecessor’s attempt.

And what is the carbuncle on the face of Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement he says he’d vote for?

Yes, the backstop!

Gove meets Simon Coveney at the weekend for non-negotiations. Good luck to them both.

So is there anything at all behind Johnson’s claim of talks going well with EU, despite their insistence that there’s nothing on the table? The BBC’s  Brussels correspondent Adam Fleming has the Commission’s version of talks about talks.

.The UK wants the backstop radically reduced to include only the articles dealing with citizens rights, the single electricity market and the Common Travel Area. UK wants removal of articles 6-10 and 12 and associated annexes.

There would be general commitment to find operable solutions to the Irish border later, with the details to be agreed by the EU/UK Joint Committee after Brexit. (Along the lines of the PM’s letter to Tusk). The UK also wants references to the future relationship to be removed from the backstop, which the EU thinks may nullify the Joint Instrument agreed in Strasbourg by Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker earlier this year. 

The UK made clear it wants a “best in class” Free Trade Agreement along the lines of the EU/Canada but minus any level playing field commitments and without the dispute resolution mechanism included in the Withdrawal Agreement.

(Words being used in reaction: “exasperating” and “disastrous.)”

So if confusion over Leave terms was not enough, the FT leads by reporting that the UK’ s demand to remove the “level playing field” with the EU from the political declaration is jeopardising the chances of an eventual free trade Canada-style deal. The current UK position therefore seems very nationally centred. It reads like the terms for  No Deal the strategy, rather than No Deal the fallback.

The Indo published the gist of plan in “UK secret papers – in fact a case pretty well aired and picked up by Nigel Dodds.

Britain proposed an all-island economy for food and agricultural products – effectively creating a border in the Irish Sea in an alternative to the backstop.

This was described as the “most practical” and “deliverable” alternative in a dossier for the UK government. However, there is a warning the solution “comes with many of the challenges of the backstop”, including the likelihood of checks on goods travelling between the North and mainland UK.

It is understood the existing 11 pages would have informed UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s arguments if he met Taoiseach Leo Varadkar next Monday as planned. That meeting is now in doubt amid political chaos in the House of Commons.

Some proposals edge towards Ireland effectively exiting the single market – something totally unacceptable to the Government here.

Sources in Dublin said the document offered “nothing” that amounted to a genuine alternative to the backstop.

This pessimism was reflected in a speech by Leo Varadakar last night.  He   spelt out the No Deal implications for the border more clearly than before.

…a Withdrawal Agreement that does not include the backstop is no good for Ireland as it merely “kicks the can down the road” until the transition phase ends. 

 Political developments in the UK mean there is a significant and growing risk of a no deal Brexit.. .Whatever happens, Ireland will not be dragged out of the Single European Market. Unlike some people, he does not see upsides to a No Deal. 

The UK is geographically and culturally our closest neighbour and will continue to be a vital trading partner, no matter what shape Brexit takes.

Certain things like the Common Travel Area and the rights of Irish and Dual British-Irish citizens in Northern Ireland and Britain to travel, work, do business and study through the EU without a visa or permit will not change.. Significant changes in medicine supplies are not anticipated, and food will remain on shelves, although possibly not all the same brands

There will have to be checks on goods and live animals and, as far as possible, they will take place in ports, airports and at businesses, although some may take place near the border. The details of this are currently being worked out with the European Commission

Taxes would have to be paid on goods bought from the UK and EU consumer protections will no longer apply.Tariffs will also apply to goods imported into Ireland from the UK, he warned, and vice versa, and importers and exporters will need to make customs declarations.

Flights, trains and business will continue to operate normally for a period, the Taoiseach stated, but a permanent agreement would be required.

While a no-deal Brexit will have adverse effects on the economy here, a recession is not anticipated and as a result there will be no need for tax increases, spending cuts or reduction in pay, pensions or welfare.