The Dignity of Democracy in the Dáil…

With the US Presidential Race engulfing the news in recent times, it felt like it took the spotlight off the controversy that had been surrounding Leo Varadkar. Two days after facing a 120-minute grilling from opposition parties in the Dáil regarding the sharing of a confidential document to his ‘friend’ Maitiu O’Tuathail, Varadkar once again entered the Dáil to answer Leaders Questions from the opposition. Pearse Doherty, still unsatisfied with the answers the Tánaiste gave on Tuesday, began probing the …

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Brexit blues take over again as confusion reigns

Confused? Join the club which I believe includes the principals, the British and Irish governments and the EU.  The idea of “non-papers”  from the UK government expresses the confusion perfectly. Do they mean what they say or not?  Are they the last word in the last ditch or feints in a game ? We last left off on an upward note when Foster met Varadkar. The direction of travel seemed to be towards NI as a special economic zone between …

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Arlene Foster and Leo Varadkar must do business together on Brexit after last night’s ice breaker

The most important thing that Arlene Foster has just done is to talk to Leo Varadkar for the first time in ages. This was a meeting that was apparently kept under wraps until it had happened.  Only a short time before, the Dublin government were saying they were hoping for a meeting “soon.” This brief encounter  opens up the possibility of genuine north-south cooperation to help hammer out an agreement on the border – and perhaps the Assembly – that …

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Cabinet ministers demand Plan B, The Times reports. And it may include Northern Ireland staying in alignment with the EU if GB diverges

The Times reports: Boris Johnson was under pressure from cabinet ministers last night to abandon his Brexit strategy and “come up with a plan B” after opposition parties pledged to veto any bid for a general election before he asks the EU for an extension On a chaotic day it emerged that: Rebel Tories expelled from the party by Mr Johnson have struck a deal behind his back with European leaders to secure a three-month Brexit extension. The group, which also includes …

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“Die in a ditch?” It could come to that. And Ireland hunkers down for a new border

As long as 24 hours ago, Boris Johnson seemed to have the edge in a deadly struggle with the new anti No Deal Commons majority. But with a Tory backlash mounting over sacking of  21 senior rebels and the influence of Dominic Cummings;  and with Tory traditionalist  MP resignations coming thick and fast led by brother Jo, I’m no longer so sure. Squeezed by the new majority, Johnson  looked to be buckling under the pressure at his dire appearance at …

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An all-Ireland agri -food zone is old news and a sign of desperation. But first….

Let’s start on a happier note. – Leo’s appearance at Belfast Gay Pride  in which he tactfully avoided grandstanding in his brief few words. “I had a real honour today to walk with Lord Hayward, who, along with Conor McGinn, put the legislation through the Commons and Lords to bring about marriage equality here in a few months’ time. So we really want to thank them. “What we see today in Belfast is Northern Ireland at its very best. Open, …

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No Deal myths exploded and need for Direct Rule is confirmed in major report

The authoritative Institute for Government has blasted most of the claims made for a No Deal strategy. In a new report it confirms the pressure on the Union and the need for Direct Rule. The head of NI civil service  David Sterling recently  addressed the institute and a leading member visited Belfast before issuing this report. The Union will come under unprecedented pressure: Johnson may well find that having left one political union, he spends an increasing proportion of his …

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“Nixon goes to China” is the right example to follow for Brexit. The Tories may know it already

Nixon goes to China Talking of the wisdom of US presidents… rivalling Trump’s lunatic assumption that our border problem is like his Mexican wall, the conservative right persists in believing that the future of the UK lies in a free trade agreement under WTO rules reached by the end of October. Steve Baker, the deputy chair of the ERG  has produced a plan called A Clean Managed Brexit which relies on negotiating a free trade agreement  “but with practical contingency …

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Don’t despair of Westminster. This is what open debate looks like. It’s a big week for Varadkar too

Next week under pressure of a deadline less than a fortnight hence, it may get worse before it gets better. What we’re seeing in the Commons would be perfectly rational if it weren’t happening so late. A minority government formed by a split party has lost control and attempts are being made to form an ad hoc majority in Parliament over the burning issue of the day.  It’s a novel situation certainly, but talk of a disintegrating system, much less …

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After May’s latest defeat, the DUP are feeling isolated over the border. Is Angela Merkel riding to the rescue?

Theresa May’s  hopes to bring her Brexit deal back to parliament again next week after it was rejected for a third time by MPs – and appears poised to trigger a general election if parliament fails to agree a way forward. Although decisive  the reduced margin has put the alliance between the ERG and the DUP under great strain. As the BBC’s Laura Kuennsberg has tweeted: “A brief marriage ends. DUP learning today that many in ERG = Brexiteers first …

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The DUP and Theresa May, the EU and Leo Varadkar, are all at sixes and sevens over the backstop and a hard border

At this late stage of the game, the DUP are furious that Theresa May is still defending the backstop when it appears it may not be so vital after all. This new last minute dispute goes to the heart of why the DUP is still refusing to back her deal and is complicating  the search for a Brexit agreement and with it Mrs May’s prospects for remaining in office.  Just to add to the complications she went to say that …

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Despite the coyness at dinner in Phoenix Park, Brexit should be no barrier. We cannot escape the urgent need for a resumption of close British-Irish relations

However they’re phased and whatever the context, close British Irish engagement on both Brexit and rescuing the GFA are essential. Who with any wit can doubt it?  Brexit provides no excuse. Indeed, it’s one of two pressing reasons for close encounters, the other being the Stormont stand-off.  Dinner in  Farmleigh House  may have been in Theresa May’s programme of displacement activity as she mulls over Labour’s offer to talk and runs down the clock, but at least it  displayed  dim …

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Varadkar offers a way out of deadock – or a hedge against failure?

The UK national papers are united in hopelessness over May’s latest strategy, tempered only by disbelief.  Plan B is Plan A. Even the cheerleader for Brexit the Daily Telegraph is not impressed. The Europe editor slaps down the  chief political correspondent’s “ exclusive.” Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday Agreement as part of a fresh attempt to unblock the Brexit logjam, The Daily Telegraph understands. Peter Foster But the mere suggestion that a British government wants to ‘amend’ the Good Friday Agreement should …

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Break-up of the parties or No Deal Brexit – the looming choice

As matters stand, we’re either heading for crash out No Deal or the main parties are heading for break-up. The Conservative and Labour leaders are dolally.  Theresa May is listening but not  to anybody who wants  a customs union or a second referendum.  Jeremy Corbyn will not only not meet her but has urged all Labour MPs not to meet her either.  But this request in a letter to his MPs came too late to stop former ministers Yvette Cooper and …

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Even if Theresa wins cabinet support for her ” all-UK customs arrangement”, time is running out to knock it into shape for the negotiations

In a nutshell, this is   the first problem Theresa May will confront from up to a dozen cabinet ministers this morning.  “We must have control of the backstop. If Theresa doesn’t stare down the EU and win a mechanism that does this, the whole argument is immaterial as there is zero chance of passing the Commons.  The Taoiseach indicated an openness to consider proposals for “a review mechanism”, provided that it was clear that the outcome of any such review …

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Confusion over the state of the Brexit negotiations increases anxiety as May’s cabinet prepares to decide on a formula

Civil society in both islands  looking on anxiously at contrasting stories about the state of the Brexit negotiations are speaking out. Persistent fears of a hard border has prompted a group of nationalists to  approach Leo Varadkar  to protect northern nationalists’ rights. This the second appeal of its kind in a year. Latest 4pm  Leo Varadkar said this afternoon Ireland is willing to consider proposals for a review clause in relation to the backstop for the Irish border. The backstop …

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Trimble’s attack on the backstop has come too late

With prospects of a return to Stormont hovering around degrees absolute, the temperature is rising among unionists about the meaning of the backstop. They believe – and they’re not alone – that there is no outcome other than no deal that will not activate the backstop and “make Northern Ireland a protectorate of the EU.” Mixed messages are emerging as EU leaders have to decide whether to convene a special ratification summit on 21 November. Meanwhile a more parochial row …

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Backstop blues on both sides as another “deadline” approaches

Interesting that the Irish Times have published two opinion pieces this morning deviating a little from the paper’s  editorial line of unwavering support for the EU version of the backstop.  Newton Emerson accuses Varadakar of having “a tin ear” to unionist sensitivities while Stephen Collins bluntly urges Varadkar and Coveney to “ shut up.”  Sensitivities in both camps are heightening. The DUP are nervous that Theresa May will rat on them if she can get a deal that will pass …

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Efforts are mounting to drive a wedge between Theresa May and the DUP over the backstop

The Guardian has been the only media I can find claiming a British ploy to get round the backstop in these terms.  Senior diplomats involved in the negotiations have reacted furiously to the details of a fresh UK proposal for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland, briefed to the Irish PM, Leo Varadkar, at last week’s Salzburg summit. Under the solution, May will agree to Northern Ireland potentially staying, in effect, in the single market, as the rest of the …

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Theresa May takes a big share of the blame for Salzburg but not all of it. How do they all walk back from the cliff?

Salzburg has turned out to be a Suez moment, a sudden and unexpected blow to  the government’s  prestige delivered by the discovery that UK  does not possess the political and economic weight to  make a deal with the EU so special that that it violates existential Union rules.  The shock is all the greater because the EU decided that, too close to deadline, the British had allowed themselves to be deceived by too much diplomatic fudging; and this had tempted …

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