The UK national papers are united in hopelessness over May’s latest strategy, tempered only by disbelief. Plan B is Plan A. Even the cheerleader for Brexit the Daily Telegraph is not impressed. The Europe editor slaps down the chief political correspondent’s “ exclusive.”
Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday Agreement as part of a fresh attempt to unblock the Brexit logjam, The Daily Telegraph understands.
But the mere suggestion that a British government wants to ‘amend’ the Good Friday Agreement should set alarm bells ringing – imagine if Sinn Fein or the DUP were seeking to amend sections of the agreement on policing, say, or citizenship?
And yet… while a bilateral British-Irish negotiation is ruled out, Leo Varadkar writing in the Sunday Independent seems to playing a game of brinkmanship, if Theresa May jumps first. And it seems the DUP are in the game too. This may be more than building an alibi against failure.
It creates movement:
- If Mrs May and a Commons majority swallow the backstop
- Her red line about a customs union goes pink
- The political declaration setting out the negotiating position on the final settlement acknowledges a British shift in position and looks forward to free trade with frictionless borders everywhere, between the UK and the EU including Great Britain and both parts of Ireland.
Later 2.45 p.m.
In an interview with RTE’s Tony Connelly, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has focused on stiffening the political declaration
Mr Barnier dismissed reports of a bilateral arrangement between the UK and Ireland, saying the EU negotiated as one team. The focus was now on the future relationship and the Political Declaration that sketches that relationship.He said the EU was prepared to work again on the declaration to make it more “ambitious.
“It’s now for the UK leaders to build this stable and political majority for a deal.”We are waiting for the next steps and are ready to work again on the Political Declaration.”
Mrs May’s tactics seem to be to run down the clock towards leaving on 29 March, meanwhile narrowing the gap between her deal A enough concessions from the EU to allow a revised package to pass through. What she has yet to clear is what revisions she is willing or able to offer the EU in return over her red lines
Parliament is unlikely to have a second binding vote on Theresa May’s Brexitdeal until February, Downing Street has said, playing down the significance of the motion that will be voted on next week.
May’s spokesman said the vote due to be held on 29 January was not “a second meaningful vote” and the government’s motion would not spell out in detail the next stage of the prime minister’s plan to get a Brexit agreement through parliament.
Instead, it is likely to be a vehicle for multiple solutions from backbench and opposition MPs, who will attempt to amend it. Downing Street said the prime minister would continue to hold talks with MPs across parties.
In an interview with the BBC’s Adam Fleming Polish foreign minister, Jacek Czaputowicz, has said last month he discussed limiting the backstop to five years. He didn’t know with what result. (Negative so far, we can conclude).
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said “UK-wide solutions are possible” to resolve the Brexit crisis. His comment, in a Sunday Independent article today, follows indications that senior DUP figures are now open to a ‘soft’ Brexit.
We have always said that if the UK were to evolve from its red lines – on the Customs Union, on the rules and regulations of the Single Market – the EU position could evolve too. The European Council has said as much on a number of occasions. Solutions and special arrangements that are specific to Northern Ireland are easier to negotiate and implement given its size and unique history and geography, but UK-wide solutions are possible too.
Prime Minister May stated last week in the House of Commons, it is not enough for people to say they don’t want a hard border. She’s right. We need to put in place laws to ensure this will never take place. And the best mechanism to ensure this is a long-term, close trading relationship between the EU and Britain.
The backstop is a simple insurance policy, one which ensures that, unless and until we agree a better solution, we will avoid having a hard border through alignment on customs and goods’ regulation on both sides of the border.
Brexit is the defining political issue of our generation. I firmly believe we can find a solution that is in the best interests of the people of the EU and UK. This is what we will work towards in the weeks ahead.
It is in the best interests of the EU and the UK to finalise a withdrawal agreement and then conclude a permanent new relationship arrangement.
Finding an ending to the challenge of Brexit will require considerable imagination, but doing so will allow us to usher in a new chapter in European-British and British-Irish relations.
In his article today, Mr Varadkar refers to the controversial Ireland ‘backstop’ element of the EU-UK withdrawal agreement document.
“We wrote it with the UK government and elements were included at their request, like the single customs territory encompassing Britain as well as Northern Ireland,” the Taoiseach writes. “Solutions and special arrangements that are specific to Northern Ireland are easier to negotiate and implement given its size and unique history and geography, but UK-wide solutions are possible too.
Yesterday DUP MP and chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson said the “time for megaphone diplomacy on both sides” was over.
He said unionists were “ready to engage” and called for “political maturity” that the Brexit challenge demanded.
Mr Donaldson told the Sunday Independent: “I believe it is possible to arrive at a UK-wide solution that protects both the integrity of the UK and the EU and avoids a hard border. Certainly such an outcome avoids a hard Brexit but it doesn’t mean the UK staying in the single market.
“A new free trade agreement with the EU should provide for customs arrangements that accommodate North-South cooperation without creating a regulatory border in the Irish Sea.”
It is understood that Mr Varadkar and Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney will now offer to meet a DUP delegation this week. Mr Varadkar will also ask all party leaders in the Dail to meet him on Tuesday to consult and confer on the situation.
As the March 29 Brexit deadline looms, the Taoiseach will also meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Netherlands PM Mark Rutte, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez this week in Davos.
Taken together, these developments indicate that positions are evolving in an urgent attempt to find a solution to the Brexit crisis.
In a break from the hard-line DUP position on Brexit, Mr Donaldsonaid in a tweet
“Any solution must respect the integrity of both the United Kingdom and EU but also the progress made in developing relationships on these islands. This is above all about future relationships.”
“The GFA is founded on the principle of consent and in developing relationships that respect the integrity of each other’s position. An outcome that creates a border in the Irish Sea threatens this delicate balance just as much as a hard border between North and South. We need a solution that avoids both.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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