the backstop – Slugger O'Toole

The backtop is back in business after Johnson’s denial is nakedly exposed

Brian Walker on December 6, 2019, 1:06 pm

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It’s not actually news that there will “be a border down the Irish Sea” if Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement is passed. But if the document Jeremy Corbyn has been waving this morning is an authentic Treasury paper, it shows that Johnson is lying or at best or in denial. He will surely be pressed to explain himself in tonight’s BBC debate with Jeremy Corbyn. Taken at face value it means Johnson will denounce his own withdrawal agreement as soon as …

Basic flaw in Labour’s referendum plan makes it unworkable

Brian Walker on September 22, 2019, 1:22 pm

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We have arrived at one of those moments when something that’s agonising lots of clever people for years has a basic flaw which people caught up in controversy have been more or less blind to. Corbyn’s fence sitting has been well and truly exposed as absurd. Why should the EU offer Labour a Brexit deal if most of its members want to campaign against it? But if they somehow succeed, how could the leadership stay neutral on the deal they’ve …

Backstop fever has subsided, but the virus is still live and it could spread…

Brian Walker on September 10, 2019, 11:28 pm

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This must be the barmiest idea emerging from the current bout of backstop fever – an “exclusive” from Cathy Newman of Channel 4 News. Boris Johnson has told government officials to explore the possibility of building a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland.. The prime minister wants to know “where this money could come from” and “the risks around the project” – which appear to include “WW2 munitions in the Irish Sea…” The DUP, the party supporting the Conservatives …

Both sides are now contemplating a physical border. What will stop it?

Brian Walker on June 29, 2019, 1:02 pm

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The looming prospect of No Deal is producing all sorts of ferment, with the focus on the clashing red lines over the Border. This was always the case but is now made more acute by trying to extract meaning from Boris Johnson’s smokescreen of bumbling towards victory in the Tory leadership election. Will anything he says bear the force of unbreakable promises to his electorate? The optimistic answer is probably very few, but by its nature it can’t be relied …

Out of left field. . Boris’s backers in the media are talking up a new deal from Brussels – if he starts talking sense as PM and can deliver the Commons

Brian Walker on June 28, 2019, 7:00 am

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Jean Claude Juncker

Bruno Waterfield of the Times sees potentially more movement from the EU than the ultra Europhiles seem to think possible – provided EU 27 are convinced Johnson can sell an amended deal to the Commons

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

It’s a big ask, but soft Brexiteers are now asking Ireland to give ground on the backstop

Brian Walker on June 13, 2019, 12:41 pm

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Vernon Bogdanor is one of Britain’s leading constitutional experts. Although he voted to Remain, his current efforts are concentrating on finding orderly constitutional means for breaking the Brexit deadlock. Vernon is no hard Brexiteer sweeping aside Ireland’s case. He is utterly sympathetic to Ireland’s interests. Today he calls the idea of shutting Parliament down for three months to prevent MPs blocking a No Deal withdrawal on 31 October “ an outrage. The ensuing demonstrations would make the People’s Vote march …

A ray of hope from Brussels to which Westminster’s clamorous politicians should pay heed

Brian Walker on May 31, 2019, 12:05 pm

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Time and again, the academic critics have taken apart the British approach to the Brexit negotiations with relish. But with the UK at bay and Westminster in pieces, is it not time to examine whether the EU can stretch out to help, not only out of pity but common interest? The critics’ analysis of the UK’s approach is often forensically compelling. But it’s also obvious that most are cheerleaders not only for the EU’s approach but the cause of …

After Theresa.. how to avoid more of the same

Brian Walker on May 23, 2019, 7:00 am

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As today’s Euro elections consign the two main parties of the UK to minority positions, their struggle to reclaim relevance will begin. The parties are obsessed with themselves more than with sorting Brexit but sorting Brexit will remain the acid test of survival. As Peston points out: YouGov shows backing for a hard or no-deal Brexit at 40% via intentions to vote for the Brexit Party (a staggering 37%) and UKIP.Whereas support for a referendum would ALSO be 40%, aggregating …

An Amber warning of revolt is delivered as May’s Brexit strategy implodes. A new Battle of Britain is about to begin

Brian Walker on February 23, 2019, 12:00 am

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This sort of thing just doesn’t happen in the British political system – a cabinet ultimatum to the prime minister delivered in the Daily Mail If we don’t get a deal next week we MUST delay Brexit’: MPs Amber Rudd, Greg Clark and David Gauke appeal for Tory unity as party is engulfed by bitter in-fighting By David Gauke, Amber Rudd and Greg Clark for the Daily Mail Once the deal is passed, the benefits will be felt nationally. Optimism …

It’s Ireland’s call as well as England’s – and both can still win the match!

Brian Walker on February 3, 2019, 1:40 pm

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Let’s go straight to the bottom line. Ireland and EU26 say the backstop is necessary to prevent a hard border. The UK says insistence on the backstop in its present form is the best way to guarantee a hard border. These are expressions of perfect deadlock. Nevertheless, after the defeat of the withdrawal deal by over 200 votes, Mrs May is returning to Brussels to seek an “alternative” to the backstop, either a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism to …

Delay, delay and more delay…. High Noon next week – latest!

Brian Walker on January 29, 2019, 12:24 am

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So where are we? On Monday morning, things were looking up for the prospects of Theresa May at least getting through the latest most momentous week in British politics since King Billy landed at Brixham ( I made the last bit up). By the afternoon, the rot had set in. On Monday evening, Mrs May took even cabinet ministers by surprise and laid her authority on the line at eleventh hour . Rather than risk fatal rejection directly, she did …

Brexit panic surfaces in Dublin but the EU is implacable on No Deal consequences

Brian Walker on January 23, 2019, 9:12 pm

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Last night I managed to survive the Ivan Rogers Experience, ( YouTube) a remorseless dissection of the entire Brexit debate which was as depressing as it was impressive. With good reason, Rogers is known as the Eeyore among Brexit experts. He was the UK ambassador to the EU who quit in disgust six months into Theresa May’s premiership. Remorselessly he spelled out the defects of every option now facing the UK, including remaining or re-applying. He laid about him with …

Opinion may be swinging but even DUP supporters favour a soft Brexit. What are the DUP doing to help bring this about?

Brian Walker on January 22, 2019, 1:54 pm

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Polling results on Brexit vary widely according to the questions asked and the sequence of events in Parliament and between the UK and the EU, a major analysis of recent polls has found. Mrs May’s persistence with her deal despite last week’s massive majority against it suggests that even the most dramatic results can be regarded as unstable or heavily conditional. Some results however are clear enough. Unionists and nationalists are deeply divided on whether there should be a second …

Varadkar offers a way out of deadock – or a hedge against failure?

Brian Walker on January 21, 2019, 10:44 am

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The UK national papers are united in hopelessness over May’s latest strategy, tempered only by disbelief. Plan B is Plan A. Even the cheerleader for Brexit the Daily Telegraph is not impressed. The Europe editor slaps down the chief political correspondent’s “ exclusive.” Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday Agreement as part of a fresh attempt to unblock the Brexit logjam, The Daily Telegraph understands. Peter Foster But the mere suggestion that a British government wants to ‘amend’ the Good Friday Agreement should …

Backstop terms are in prospect in any final deal. Unionists cannot afford to stand apart

Brian Walker on January 19, 2019, 4:42 pm

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Unfashionable though it may be to ask: do the DUP have a point when they object so strongly to the backstop? Undoubtedly it confers special status on Northern Ireland but in a form nobody likes, even nationalists who called for it. Mrs May’s deal a.k.a. the withdrawal agreement, is presumed dead ; the backstop is only sleeping. The bitter controversy surrounding it dramatically expresses the fundamental difference of outlook between the legalistic approach of people schooled from the beginning in …

In spite of a day without precedent, it’s still party before country from the Conservatives and Labour

Brian Walker on January 16, 2019, 1:06 am

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At the very moment Conservative and Labour MPs are passionately proclaiming the need to work together, the two parties are locked in the elemental struggle for power after a major defeat, a vote of confidence in the government. This is Labour’s ritual act to stave off having to commit to a policy. For theirs is a unicorn with a mighty horn, a customs relationship that allows unilateral free trade negotiations and a single market relationship that restricts free movement. On …

Excuse the dampener -don’t be surprised if the moment of truth is postponed – again

Brian Walker on January 15, 2019, 12:04 am

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To be fair, in her direct appeal to MPs “to take a second look,” Theresa May made a better fist at making the case for her Deal in the Commons than she did earlier at the Doulton pottery in Stoke. For the first time she was saying that the Scottish nationalists and the “Ulster” nationalists of the DUP would carry the can for a catastrophic result. As a proud Unionist, I share the concerns of Members who want to ensure …

The DUP are the crucial “dominoes” in May’s bid to win a second meaningful vote

Brian Walker on January 7, 2019, 6:23 pm

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Theresa May’s strategy to try to win MPs’ endorsement of the withdrawal agreement is a little clearer, arising out of hints she gave to Andrew Marr yesterday. The strategy is classic if conventional politics, before a fundamentally divided, incoherent opposition, however formidable it now seems. It involves narrowing the gaps, wearing down opposition by a mixture of project Fear (miles of traffic jams and English police on Ulster streets ) and project Farce (the shipping company with no ships), and …

Wobbles on the backstop and an eventual Fianna Fail- SDLP merger are new features of the countdown to the day of Brexit reckoning

Brian Walker on January 6, 2019, 2:17 pm

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As Sammy Wilson was among the first to remind us, Brexit wars have resumed again after the Christmas pause. Theresa May has just promised no delay to the meaningful vote scheduled for the week after next. But she declined to speculate on extending Article 50 if as expected MPs finally vote down the withdrawal agreement with the Irish backstop. According to the Irishman who is professor of Constitutional and EU law at University College London, Ronan McCrea.. the UK …

Crisp advice to Parliament on what to ponder over Christmas

Brian Walker on December 20, 2018, 10:31 am

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Perhaps the most celebrated of constitutional experts Vernon Bogdanor, has no doubts about what should happen next. The irony is that there is a much greater consensus among MPs than is apparent from the posturing of May’s opponents. Kenneth Clarke believes that about 80% of MPs are against a no-deal Brexit, while nearly all MPs accept that there should not be a hard Irish border, which would be incompatible with the spirit of the Good Friday agreement of 1998. The withdrawal agreement achieves …