This must be the barmiest idea emerging from the current bout of backstop fever – an “exclusive” from Cathy Newman of Channel 4 News.
Boris Johnson has told government officials to explore the possibility of building a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland.. The prime minister wants to know “where this money could come from” and “the risks around the project” – which appear to include “WW2 munitions in the Irish Sea…”
The DUP, the party supporting the Conservatives in Parliament, believes a bridge could break the Brexit impasse by removing the need for a border in the Irish Sea.
Who takes literally “a border in the Irish Sea,” as if customs cutters would order ships to hove too to be searched in the North Channel or somewhere off Loch Ryan or the Isle of Man? It means checks at GB ports or nearby warehouses – strictly land based Cathy! A bridge would make no difference.
T he FT are prepared to damp down the fever but still pins hopes on a role for the Assembly..
Mr Johnson on Monday met Arlene Foster, DUP leader, and has told the unionist party he will not support a Northern Ireland-only backstop. Mrs Foster has called it “undemocratic and unconstitutional”. She said after the meeting: “During today’s meeting, the prime minister confirmed his rejection of the Northern Ireland-only backstop and his commitment to securing a deal which works for the entire United Kingdom as well as our neighbours in the Republic of Ireland.”
But Mr Johnson has accepted that Northern Ireland could effectively remain part of the EU single market for agriculture and food — throwing up new checks on the Irish Sea — if the Stormont assembly was reconvened and gave its consent..
A role for the Assembly should be treated with scepticism. Dublin and the EU have already dismissed the idea of giving an Assembly a veto on the backstop. If it were to acquire one it would breach the UK principle of the all UK referendum decision; Scotland would demand a veto on Leave. If not a veto, what else is there?
Would a Brexit role act as an incentive for restoring the Assembly? The only viable role would surely favour nationalists politically – a strengthening of north-south ties to develop the economy. In economic terms this is entirely sensible and would answer the prayers of many. But what is there in the proposal to cause a switch of sentiment in the DUP from the constitutional case to the economic? Sinn Fein would always follow Dublin and the DUP would always be denied their opportunity to join GB and strike a great free trade deal with Uzbekistan or Uruguay or wherever.
The stronger argument for a shift is the perceived change in the political equation. Johnson has lost his majority despite the DUP and has to build up a new one if he’s serious about a deal. A cross party group convened by Labour MP Stephen Kinnock claims the support of at least 50 MPs for a viable deal. If it gels it could cancel out the DUP and at least some of the right wing Spartans who refuse to see beyond No Deal, says Paul Waugh in Huffpost.
Labour’s Caroline Flint suggested there were 50 of her colleagues who would back a deal, which would be more than enough to outnumber the estimated 15 or so hardcore Spartans.
Although it sounds bonkers given the bad blood of the past week, the calculation in No.10 is that many of the 21 anti-no-deal Tory rebels would probably vote for a new Brexit deal. The Spartans however have nowhere else to go.
One pro-Brexit former Cabinet minister told me today of a new plan to rout the ERG, if needed. Under this option, the PM puts his revised deal to the Commons as another ‘confidence’ vote. Any MP who failed to back it would have the whip withdrawn and deselected from standing in the following snap election. “It will be his best chance to get rid of the fucking nutcases,” the ex-minister added.
If the “nutcases” have nowhere else to go, are the DUP any different? But 10 DUP votes are 10 votes, handy in another hung parliament . Would Johnson risk betrayal? Possibly. Pest0n is blunter still..
Don’t laugh, but Boris Johnson would genuinely prefer a Brexit deal to no deal.
And that should make Northern Ireland’s DUP and the Brexiter purists in the Tories’ European Research Group very nervous indeed.
Because the EU has made it clear that it thinks a deal could be done if the backstop arrangement, designed to keep open the border in the island of Ireland, was remade as a Northern-Ireland only backstop rather than a hybrid of customs union for the whole UK and some NI-only arrangements.
There is evidence of Johnson moving in that direction, with his initial concession that there could be a single market for agriculture for the Republic and Northern Ireland that would be bossed by Brussels.
And which to ERG Brexiter fundamentalists is redolent of the PM failing to do as they thought they had instructed him, namely to rip up the whole of Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement.
To be clear, we are weeks away from what would be seen by Arlene Foster, Steve Baker and their allies as the great betrayal – if it ever comes.
But they know their leverage to stop it has vanished. Because the very worst they can threaten is to bring down the government and force a general election.
To which Boris Johnson would presumably respond with a Beano or Pericles version of ‘bring it on’ and ‘make my day’.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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