Polling results on Brexit vary widely according to the questions asked and the sequence of events in Parliament and between the UK and the EU, a major analysis of recent polls has found. Mrs May’s persistence with her deal despite last week’s massive majority against it suggests that even the most dramatic results can be regarded as unstable or heavily conditional. Some results however are clear enough.
Unionists and nationalists are deeply divided on whether there should be a second Brexit referendum.
A LucidTalk poll published yesterday shows 70% of unionists against another vote on leaving the EU whereas 77% of nationalists want one. Just over a quarter (27%) of unionists believe there should be a second referendum and 14% of nationalists oppose one.
Some 1,483 people making up a representative sample of the Northern Ireland population took part in the poll, which was conducted last week.
A total of 52% said there should be a second vote, with 43% against.
Those taking part were asked how they would vote if two options were on the ballot paper – Brexit on the terms of Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement or a no-deal.
Almost half (48%) chose the Prime Minister’s plan, 37% a no-deal Brexit. Almost one in 10 said they wouldn’t vote or would spoil their vote.
An analysis for the think tank Britain in a Changing Europe asking what Britain Wants from Europe confirms that answers are nuanced and considerably depend on the questions asked. Ace pollster Sir John Curtice says that:
… polls show a widespread clamour for a second referendum have to be treated with care. The proposal is one that, so far at least, appeals much more strongly to the half of the country that would like to see Brexit reversed than it does to those who support Brexit. True, there are signs that perhaps some Leave supporters could be persuaded to support another ballot – if it were to be portrayed as a chance for voters to decide the fate of the government’s Brexit deal. But unless that were to happen, it would seem unlikely that holding any such ballot would succeed in healing the division and polarisation that has come to characterise the Brexit debate.
Jamie Pow’s analysis of opinion in Northern Ireland (from p50) shows a clear majority of DUP supporters in favour of soft exit by the whole UK, that is NI included and not separate. What is the DUP doing to help bring this about?
Extract
Two-and-a-half years later, it is worth recalling the referendum failed to engage people in Northern Ireland in the same way it mobilised voters in other parts of the UK. Turnout was just 63% – nine points lower than the UK average, and the lowest of any region. It was also lower than turnout levels in the subsequent ‘normal’ elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly (65% in March 2017) and Westminster (66% in June 2017). This relative disengagement was almost certainly linked to the marginal attention given to Northern Ireland or Irish issues during the campaign.
Since the referendum, the significance of these issues has become clearer. Within Northern Ireland, there has been growing anxiety at the prospect of physical infrastructure returning to the Irish border. Qualitative evidence from a deliberative forum suggests popular concerns are both practical and political
Taking all of this together, we can observe four broad features in terms of public opinion in Northern Ireland since June 2016. Firstly, there is growing support for the UK remaining in the EU. Excluding ‘don’t know’ responses, a cross sectional survey we conducted in early 2018 found 69% would now support Remain. A majority of Protestants (56%) would still vote Leave, but this margin has narrowed from the 60-40% split in 2016. All available polling data confirms this trend: at least 60% of voters in Northern Ireland consistently say they would choose to stay in the EU.
Secondly, assuming that the UK does leave the EU, there is considerable backing for the softest possible exit on a UK-wide basis. A majority of supporters of all five of Northern Ireland’s main parties – unionist, nationalist and neither – would prefer to see the whole of the UK stay in the customs union and single market, compared to either the UK leaving both or Northern Ireland leaving on a different basis to the rest of the UK.
As Table 1 shows, this includes 58% of DUP supporters and 70% of Sinn Féin voters. It is rare to find such a broad popular consensus in Northern Ireland on such a salient issue. The limited polling evidence available does not suggest that the DUP is being punished for not throwing its weight behind a UK-wide soft exit; the broadly similar Brexit stances adopted by rival unionist parties have helped to insulate its position.
Preferred type of exit from the EU (% in NI supporting each option, by party vote)
% DUP voters
Hard exit for all of the UK 32.2
Soft exit for all of the UK 5 7.9
Hard exit for GB 9.9, soft exit for NI 9.9
Referendum vote (% reporting Leave/Remain vote in 2016 Leave
DUP UUP
Leave 78.0 42.6
Remain 22.0 57.4
Thirdly, while recent polling finds that there is not necessarily much enthusiasm about the Withdrawal Agreement itself, many people support its key features. In a LucidTalk poll from December 2018, 54% of respondents agreed that business and farming organisations were correct to back the Agreement. Some 65% think that it would be a net benefit for Northern Ireland to remain closely aligned to the EU, even if the rest of the UK diverged. Respondents cited perceived economic advantage and the avoidance of a hard border with the Republic of Ireland as reasons for this.
Unionists are much less convinced. A sizeable minority (44%) would rather leave the EU with no deal, compared to the options of either remaining in the EU or accepting the Withdrawal Agreement. Paradoxically, and finally, this is the scenario that would apparently pose the greatest risk to Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. 55% of respondents say they would ‘probably’ or ‘certainly’ support a united Ireland in the event that the UK left without a deal, falling to 48% if the UK leaves on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, and to just 29% if the UK remains in the EU.
Aside from remaining in the EU altogether, the most preferred option is for an exit that avoids any new friction across these islands. Leaving without a deal or leaving with separate arrangements for Northern Ireland are likely to have more polarising effects on public opinion.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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