Hain accuses Johnson, Cameron, May of NI ‘neglect’ – and Foster for ‘lapdog’ tendency

Boris Johnson, Theresa May and David Cameron must accept part of the responsibility for the continuing “gridlock” of politics in Northern Ireland, through their failure to engage in the political process here, argues former Labour secretary of state Peter Hain. He also allocates blame to Conservative secretaries of state, with the exception of Julian Smith.  Hain says that prime ministers must recognise that their role includes strong engagement with the Northern Ireland parties, in order to keep political progress on track. “You …

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After Theresa.. how to avoid more of the same

As today’s Euro elections  consign the two main parties of the UK to minority positions, their struggle to reclaim relevance will begin. The parties are obsessed with themselves more than with sorting Brexit but sorting Brexit will remain the acid test of survival. As Peston points out: YouGov shows backing for a hard or no-deal Brexit at 40% via intentions to vote for the Brexit Party (a staggering 37%) and UKIP.Whereas support for a referendum would ALSO be 40%, aggregating …

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What would a Festival of Britain and Northern Ireland say? “Politics and ceremonial are not separate subjects, the one serious, the other superficial. Ritual.. is itself a type of power”

Ulster 71 Exhibition BBC Image  The headline quote is from David Cannadine in “Rituals of Royalty etc..”  in “Traditional Societies”, ed. Cannadine and Simon Price, CAP 1987 p3, quoted by Gillian McIntosh (below)  Anniversaries like death and taxes are always with us. Perhaps they’re even sent to challenge  us.  Politicians are tempted to lay on  bread and circuses to show up the better face of things. Could it really work for Brexit?  The Irish Times believes not. The paper has …

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Theresa May wants a Stormont deal before she quits; but will Penny Mordaunt queer the pitch over Army prosecutions?

Theresa May  is back again looking for DUP support  to get the withdrawal Bill through the Commons either before 23 May the day of the Euro parliament  elections or  in mid- June, if her party haven’t turfed her out by then.  Her bid for support presumably  features a customs arrangement with  regulatory alignment added in order to dispose of the bogey of a border down the Irish Sea. The pitch  hasn’t worked so far with the DUP or in those …

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Will the DUP demand a new PM as the price of keeping the Tories in power? Enter Boris Johnson – or Sajid Javid?

The DUP’s support for the government is hanging by a thread, or at least for Theresa May,  if only they can find the means of severing it . Arlene Foster has spoken of the prime minister in the scathing language of antique patriotism the DUP reserves for special opponents: Despite the prime minister being warned about the opposition to her withdrawal agreement, she has limped along and tried to force people into a cul-de-sac where they have no option but …

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The DUP threaten to pull the plug on May’s careful plan

We may have a timetable up to Hallowe’en but for what? Apart from taking an Easter break from today to 23 April, MPs were only a little wiser after Theresa May’s long statement. The talks between the two front benches are “ serious “ but there is no meeting of minds on how to close the narrow gap between a customs arrangement  (Conservative) and full  membership of the customs union (Labour).  There’s slightly better news on process. May and Corbyn …

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The EU takes control while May considers a vote on a second referendum

If what Peston hears is true,  the comfort blanket of a long extension of Article 50 has been swept from under MPs’ feet and a binary choice between No Deal and No Brexit is shaping up. If the EU grants only the shortest of extensions  at their emergency summit  to the end of May – to just after the European elections – the pressure  will reach fever pitch for the Commons to agree a new deal centering on the customs …

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Is it possible to leave the EU without wreaking serious self harm? The answer No is all the more powerful, coming from a reforming Brexiteer

Peter Oborne is an often emotional and brutally frank political journalist, an instinctive but very independent minded conservative. For the website Open Democracy he has penned a model recantation from his support for Brexit. It’s nearly three years since I, along with 17. 4 million other Britons, voted for Brexit. Today I have to admit that the Brexit project has gone sour. Brexit has paralysed the system. It has turned Britain into a laughing stock. And it is certain to …

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Let’s cut Theresa some slack

In her fireside chat from Chequers, Theresa May spoke with typically unconscious irony.  But she  surely right when she said people expect political parties to work together to solve Brexit.  Such a pity it took her nearly three years to realise it, although whether an earlier epiphany would have produced a Brexit consensus I very much doubt. I suspect a cliff hanger was always on the cards and a breakup of the parties may happen yet. The fact is these …

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Tory and Labour splits widen as Parliament gropes its way painfully towards a soft Brexit. Guess who might be about to hop on board?

  A  Twitter blizzard,  floods of Live updates  and lurid headlines convey the pace and drama of events. Tory Brexiteer fury as May is seen as recruiting Corbyn to pass a soft Brexit. A secret ballot on Theresa May’s leadership *will not* be granted by 1922 committee  of all Tory backbenchers  – the feeling is it will only add to instability. They can’t hold a formal process because December’s vote gives May a one year grace period.  Asked one rhetorically: …

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The DUP are finally at loggerheads with Mrs May over how to protect “the precious Union”

What an Alice in Wonderland response from the DUP to Theresa May’s belated opening out to the opposition. Robert Peston tells us: According to ministers, the defining issue (of Mrs May’s apparent pivot to Labour and a soft Brexit)  was that if there was a no-deal Brexit “we’d have to go to direct rule in Northern Ireland” says one. “Disaster. Huge risk. Of all legacies, the break-up of the Union [of the UK], the worst for a PM. She’ll never …

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Brexit choices narrow at peak crisis approaches, for the EU and Ireland too

As a riven cabinet meets in peak crisis mode, we might tentatively assume that Theresa May would prefer continuity to smash, such as a general election. For good reason , as  voting guru  Prof John Curtice reveals: Holding a general election could simply make Britain’s Brexit impasse even more difficult to resolve. That is the clear implication of where the parties currently stand in the polls. According to a projection based on the average of each company’s most recent poll, the …

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My dream outcome. Ken Clarke, the sanest and oldest, to head up a cross party coalition

 I could never have guessed it but the bums really did squeak  in the Commons yesterday. The failure so far of the indicative vote process was a narrow squeak, but even so, it   revealed a genteel amateurishness about the whole process. Clearly many of them failed to heed Ken Clarke’s s advice and vote right down the list. With so little experience of brokering deals and still inured to their party tram lines, they failed to caucus like  Americans or …

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Squeaky bum time for Brexit, as the roof closes in on Theresa

Image by permission of Parliament “Anything can happen in the next 12, 11, 10 days” This is the pretty safe prediction of the Institute for Government, the think tank of former civil servants and bright young para-politicians who hug the inside track closer than most. One of the institute’s chiefs Jill Rutter would be earning a fortune if she’d been paid a decent fee for all her media appearances in recent days and weeks. Back on the IfG website Jill …

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Don’t despair of Westminster. This is what open debate looks like. It’s a big week for Varadkar too

Next week under pressure of a deadline less than a fortnight hence, it may get worse before it gets better. What we’re seeing in the Commons would be perfectly rational if it weren’t happening so late. A minority government formed by a split party has lost control and attempts are being made to form an ad hoc majority in Parliament over the burning issue of the day.  It’s a novel situation certainly, but talk of a disintegrating system, much less …

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After May’s latest defeat, the DUP are feeling isolated over the border. Is Angela Merkel riding to the rescue?

Theresa May’s  hopes to bring her Brexit deal back to parliament again next week after it was rejected for a third time by MPs – and appears poised to trigger a general election if parliament fails to agree a way forward. Although decisive  the reduced margin has put the alliance between the ERG and the DUP under great strain. As the BBC’s Laura Kuennsberg has tweeted: “A brief marriage ends. DUP learning today that many in ERG = Brexiteers first …

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This wasn’t what was supposed to happen on Brexit Day

True to form, the gambit to separate out withdrawal terms  from the rest of the package has failed in advance.  For the DUP this wheeze may be even less attractive than the May deal as it doesn’t even include the legal assurances  they rejected  (courtesy Sam McBride of the Newslettter for the thought). Yet again the figures don’t add up for the Daily Telegraph and the entire media. On Thursday night Mrs May still needed to persuade 52 Tory rebels …

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Brexit? It’s the Union, stupid

“It was like binge-watching Borgen,” somebody said. But after all the drama , nothing is certain today – Theresa May’s “ back me then sack me”  resignation,   a third meaningful vote, even Brexit with a deal – except that the DUP will not vote for the withdrawal agreement.   Nigel Dodds should have removed any lingering doubt: “The DUP do not abstain on the Union.” The deep state of main party disintegration was revealed in last night’s votes.  In what …

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The real battle of Brexit is about to begin

Oliver Letwin Rather than the hoped for negotiated peace, Brexit skirmishing is shaping up into a formal struggle between Theresa May’s crumbling minority government and the inchoate majority of soft Brexiteers in the House of Commons. Battle is finally joined between those who want to retain a close relationship with the EU and the committed minority of MPs who long for a clean break. It has  polarised to a contest between No Deal and No Brexit in which the default …

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