Johnson may be a zombie PM but he could still win through, as the combined Opposition are united only on barring No Deal

After suffering three defeats in two days, by early next week Boris Johnson may well be forced to swallow his words and accept a Commons majority Bill to ban No Deal. The pressure on Labour would then become irresistible to lift their ban on a general election. But that poses at least two dilemmas for Labour.  Do they follow Corbyn’s instinct and go for an election almost straight away on say 15 October, two days before the EU Council meeting? The debate inside the party is raging, as PoliticsHome reports:

The row centres around the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, which is backed by opposition parties and rebel Tories, which would force the Prime Minister to seek a Brexit extension if he cannot pass a deal by 19 October.

Sir Keir (Starmer) says Labour should wait until after that date before backing any moves to hold an election, meaning the country would not go to the polls until November.

He told MPs: “We will keep our focus on the task in hand, which is to ensure that we do not leave the EU without a deal and that requires the passing and implementation of this Act.”

But Mr Corbyn’s spokesman said Labour should just wait until the Bill has been given Royal Assent, which could be as soon as Friday, meaning the election could still happen on Boris Johnson’s preferred date on 15 October.

“Once the Bill is passed and has Royal Assent, we will support a general election call in Parliament and we will continue to look at all mechanisms necessary to prevent any further attempts to force through a no-deal exit,” the spokesman said.

One Labour MP told PoliticsHome: “If you have a general election before the 31st it becomes no deal versus Remain and you take the risk that Johnson becomes PM again and takes us out without a deal.”

John McDonnell, shadow chancellor and key Labour strategist told Peston last night that he favoured an election “later than sooner ” (in the late autumn). This is because Labour would want to nail down a date and bar Johnson from setting his own date by Royal proclamation that still enabled Brexit on 31 October. To prevent that, the opposition should wait, not just until the Bill is passed, but “implemented” – that is, when a letter has been received in Brussels asking for a further delay.

But as the rebel Bill barring No Deal can’t be amended, this would require Johnson to move his own Bill with an election date that the Commons majority would support in say, early November. The EU would be asked for and probably grant the  further extension,  perhaps  to the end of January.

Johnson let loose would no doubt campaign as the People’s champion against the elites thwarting their will. Labour would face their basic unresolved dilemma; whether to campaign in the election for a “People’s Vote” i.e. a second referendum – meaning two voting exercises in quick succession; and whether the party should campaign for Remain. If Labour won the election would they go for Deal or opt for Revoke Article 50 and a second referendum?

With Labour still in its own turmoil over this, the badly battered Boris Johnson is still in with a  chance of victory.

Brian Walker

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London