A real test for Boris Johnson. Will he convene the Intergovernmental Council at a time when an open breach over Brexit seems imminent?

We are in worse confusion over Brexit than anything in modern times, short of total breakdown and conflict. On one side there is a withdrawal agreement that will never pass this House of Commons. On the other there is the persistence with a backstop that threatens an outcome it is designed to prevent. This is not a rational situation. And yet the train is on course to hit the buffers.

Boris Johnson will have satisfied himself that he has gone through the motions of visiting the three smaller members of what he’s pleased to call “the awesome foursome of the UK” who were studiously ignored by Theresa May after similar visits. He has made no noticeable impact on their politics beyond annoying most of them just a little bit more, except the DUP who were as grim as usual. Johnson didn’t seem to realise or care that having dinner with them the night before wasn’t the most sensitive introduction to all party talks the next morning.

As Jill Rutter of the Institute for Government writes today:

The PM may say power sharing is his priority – but he must accept his no-deal rhetoric is making it less likely. On top of this, his party’s dependence on DUP votes in Westminster makes it hard for it to be the credible honest broker it needs to be.

Brexit  continues its relentless progress in widening the gaps in understanding between the two islands.  Accusing Vardakar of conniving at unity by sticking with the backstop is one example. Another n is the fantasy of asking the local parties to get Britain off the backstop hook, an old Theresa May ploy, as the otherwise perceptive James Forsyth argues in the Spectator..

 As James says on today’s Coffee House Shots podcast, restoring power-sharing at Stormont would increase the chance of the UK and the EU managing to come to a Brexit deal. Johnson has repeatedly attacked the backstop as undemocratic. The obvious response to this criticism is to say the backstop should be run in Northern Ireland – but the obvious body to make that decision is not functioning and hasn’t been for two years. If this could be changed, the UK would be in a much stronger position.

If they could pull that one off they could fly to the moon unaided. Forsyth doesn’t seem to  realise that an NI only backstop would be one of the DUP’s candidates  for the ultimate betrayal. We may rest assured that Johnson didn’t t raise it over dinner. Maybe he’ll keep it up his sleeve for another time.

Once Julian Smith satisfies himself that no progress is possible in the Stormont talks in the shadow of No Deal,  the next move – logically anyway- would be discuss the parameters of direct rule with the Irish government. Strictly speaking – and the DUP are very strict about it – Dublin has no role in Strand One of the GFA.  (We have been through all this many times). But under the British-Irish Agreement on the totality of relationships, the Intergovernmental  Council  promotes cooperation at all levels, although  “ non devolved matters”  are mainly highlighted.  But  the Irish government has always commented freely on all aspects of northern politics without much  British objection at least on the surface. All the more so under today’s  breakdown conditions.  Who  can now deny that the “ totality of relationships are involved over Brexit?.

There’s no doubt though that the British are in a huff with the Irish over Brexit. Inevitably the  GFA  relationship has been somewhat compromised, despite all the protestations of love and peace. After one meeting last year the British side didn’t give Irish ministers  a room to hold a presser in. They had to join the rabble at College Green and let the world know they were miffed (although  they could have talked at the embassy – but this is diplomatic signalling, you understand).

There have been only three meetings of the IGC in a year, the last in May. The communiques are bland and the outcomes largely unnoticeable. Dublin and the nationalist parties have been arguing for a bigger role while unionists are predictably opposed, fearing de facto joint authority (e.g. as the SDLP’s Nicola Mallon’s argued for today outside Stormont).

Will Johnson accept a greater role for Dublin through the Conference at a time when an open breach over Brexit seems imminent? Or would convening it – and keeping it running –  provide the essential diplomatic forum not least on EU matters  which are actually part of its brief anyway? Rather than ritual meetings which get nowhere and megaphone diplomacy, it is a no brainer for those who use their brains.

Brian Walker

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London