A clear Boris Johnson majority could be in Northern Ireland’s interests. What are the chances?

Planning for No Deal is the government’s No 1 priority, says Michael Gove.

“So we need a new approach and a different relationship. Critically, we need to abolish the backstop and ensure we find a different way to handle trade, and other important relations, on the island of Ireland”.

Some ERG hardliners would oppose a deal even if it eliminated the backstop. They sense a trap in alleged talk of EU concessions and plots around every corner in Whitehall, according to the  Sunday Times

(New ERG chair Steve) Baker and the former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith have been sounded out by EU embassies in London about whether they would accept an exit clause or a time limit and have been told by intermediaries that a five-to-10-year time limit could be offered.

Civil servants have also told the leaders of the hardline Brexiteers that the EU is holding back a tax demand for VAT on derivatives trades which could amount to a trillion pounds owed to Brussels, a demand they believe would be issued when Britain is “defenceless” in an implementation period. “We can’t allow ourselves to be locked in,” one MP said.

The ERG are also fearful after briefings that civil servants will help MPs who want to stop Brexit. Legal advice presented by Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, has warned ministers that if MPs vote to bring down the government in a no confidence motion, forcing an election around the time of the October 31 deadline, the government has a constitutional duty to seek an extension to the Brexit deadline and could be compelled to do so by the Supreme Court. “In those circumstances he would be the last Tory prime minister,” one said.

Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, has rejected this interpretation and told Johnson that only new legislation revoking article 50 can stop Brexit. The senior team do not want an election before Brexit is delivered, but recognise they would have to call one if the Supreme Court found against them. “We’re on the brink of the biggest constitutional crisis for 400 years,” one Johnsonian said.

With election speculation reaching fever pitch in spite Johnson’s denials, a clear Conservative victory could deprive the DUP of its leverage. This is the Remainers’ new dream.   For it could open the way for the revival of the Northern Ireland only backstop. This would solve Johnson’s main problem at a stroke and create the “best of both worlds” for Northern Ireland.  He would be sure to argue that an economic border in the Irish Sea does not qualify as a constitutional border, because  UK law and national government including the all important subvention would be otherwise unaffected. He would also invite  a very loud rattle of the begging bowl. He has started it already.

During Monday’s visit he will be announcing £300m of new funding for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.  On his visit to a Scottish military base, he will set out how the new pot of money will help communities in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Under the latest Growth Deals plan, the funding will go towards deals in Falkirk, the Islands and Argyll and Bute in Scotland, Causeway Coast and Glens and Mid South West Northern Ireland, and Mid Wales

Ahead of his Scottish visit, he said: “Our Union is the most successful political and economic union in history. We are a global brand and together we are safer, stronger and more prosperous. So as we prepare for our bright future after Brexit, it’s vital we renew the ties that bind our United Kingdom.

“I’m proud to be in Scotland today to make clear that I am a passionate believer in our great Union, and I look forward to visiting Wales and Northern Ireland to ensure that every decision I make as prime minister promotes and strengthens our Union.”

Administering the backstop to protect the large volumes of trade between GB and both parts of Ireland involving the GFA institutions as well as the EU would require a rapid improvement in British-Irish relations, a consummation devoutly to be wished. Politically it can be argued persuasively that substituting the backstop for a hard border would stave off the threat of a border poll and would be welcomed by many more people than it repels. All in all, clearly in the unionist as well as the nationalist interest. So win: win all round.

But imagining such an outcome is very different from achieving it. In any likely future parliament with at least a four way split, DUP votes will continue to count whoever forms the government, as election expert John Curtice explains.  Unlike the Conservatives in extremis there is nothing here to tempt the DUP away from their existential hard line. Again, in UK terms   if   NI were to acquire special EU status, pro-Remain Scotland would demand something similar. With a hard border on the Tweed unimaginable, demands Indyref 2 would become deafening. And what then would be left of the defence of the “precious Union?”

So it seems there is no easy route out of crisis, except in the  imagination.

Brian Walker

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London