Henry Patterson has written an excellent explanation in the Guardian of the pressures on the DUP within Northern Ireland rather than at Westminster or from Brussels. As the professional historian of the fate and fortune of border Protestants and much else besides, Henry’s analysis commands respect even from the DUP’s critics who claim they should have backed Remain or at least Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.
Today’s favourite commentator on unionism Alex Kane has also extended his reach into the London press as far as the left leaning Guardian to follow this blog into arguing that the DUP should now support Remain. While the logic applies, it is narrow. It’s becoming blatantly clear that the Remain option is fast disappearing and that the present tussles are about positioning for advantage in an election. Protecting against No Deal is little more than an excuse by a badly split Labour party not only over Brexit but its own leadership and fears they will lose badly in any imminent election.
Whoever wins the election when it’s eventually held, I see little chance of the DUP being able to reverse the position on the new front stop. Any Labour government would be unlikely to reverse it unless it won a stonking majority with irresistible momentum for Remain or the Lib Dems supported them in office. Even allowing for unprecedented volatility in politics, these are the least likely outcomes.
The best hope is that the conditions for customs clearance and Vat can be mitigated or compensated for. The undoubted constitutional implications should be addressed first by Dublin refusing to endorse any border poll without unionist acquiescence, including rejecting any prospect of holding the required concurrent referendum in the Republic under anything like the present volatility, as recently recommended by the senior retired Irish diplomat Noel Dorr in the Irish Times. This should be a accompanied by agreement among all small u unionist parties at Westminster to declare their support for the Union by consent. This means Labour reiterating its position that it will not do a straight deal with the SNP to support a second independence referendum in exchange for supporting a minority Labour government. Such a deal is unnecessary. The SNP have nowhere else to go except to tilt towards Labour.
Later… I doubt if most unionist voters will blame the DUP for incompetence and poor judgement or that more than North Belfast will be under threat if the last list of parties stands again. In the present ferment and scramble over election timing, unionist voters are more likely to stick with nurse for fear of something worse like a Labour government. While Arlene Foster has made for her, liberal noises about the Irish language, Fortress Ulster Under Attack will be the more convincing appeal until at least the result of the general election. This will not be the moment to play with alternatives until they see what the immediate future holds. The prospect of a renewed phalanx of 10 “doing their best for Ulster” has more obvious appeal than letting in Alliance or absentionist Sinn Fein on a reduced or split unionist turnout.
I apologise for lack of links, but you can easily look them up on your own. They’re too difficult to supply on the phone from New Zealand.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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