Despite Arlene Foster’s public denials, the Times stands by its story that ahead of any return to Stormont ,the DUP would support the idea of the Assembly signing off on a deal to replace the backstop that would involve some ( no doubt de-dramatised) “checks in the Irish Sea” . This is based on the hope that DUP all-Ireland agreement on agri foods is only a stage on a journey rather than the final destination. It would mean the DUP joining the others including Sinn Fein in agreeing something more comprehensive. What would happen if they didn’t agree? Would that amount to the veto that Dublin and the EU have repeatedly they will not concede to the Assembly? If not, what’s the point of it? We can only know the answers to these key questions if Boris Johnson makes a firm proposal. Will he do that before he puts a new Deal package to Brussels? Or hold back in case some party or other torpedoes it in advance?
The Times revealed yesterday that the DUP was shifting some of its red lines to unlock a deal with the EU. Critically, the Northern Irish party has privately indicated that it could accept regulatory checks in the Irish Sea and divergence from Britain with the consent of the province’s democratic institutions.
Despite Ms Foster’s and Mr Wilson’s insistence, party sources say that they could accept regulatory divergence with the “consent” of Northern Irish democratic institutions. They made clear that this would not require the executive and assembly to be restored before October 31. “That could happen in the transition period,” they said. They were “positive” that a deal could be done.
The deal could find favour with the EU, which fears Northern Ireland becoming a back door into its single market for non-compliant goods if the UK signs trade deals with countries such as the United States.
Surprisingly perhaps Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair’s negotiator around the GFA and still a keen observer gives no encouragement to the Times’ analysis in a letter to the paper. But then he’s an unrepentant Remainer.
… If we leave the single market and the customs union, as we will have to for the Canada-style free trade agreement favoured by Boris Johnson, there will have to be a border somewhere. It can be between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK or between the island of Ireland and the rest of the EU.
The DUP has a perfectly legitimate complaint against the border between Northern Ireland and Britain because it undermines its identity. The Irish are rightly never going to agree to a border with the EU. And a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic would reopen the issue of identity underpinning the Good Friday agreement. This has been the problem bedevilling the Brexit talks since the start and to suggest that a common agricultural area for the whole of Ireland and some cobbled-together ideas about trusted trader schemes solves it, is nonsense. In truth we are still a long way from a negotiated deal and no one has yet found the magic key to unlock it.
Jonathan Powell
Downing Street chief of staff 1997-07
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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