The Daily Telegraph has been leaked – or rather handed – extracts from Boris Johnson’s speech today- and more importantly, the gist of the “deal” proposal he will send to Brussels and EU 27 including Ireland almost immediately afterwards.
Summing it up, the comment from the paper’s Europe editor Peter Foster: “It’s extraordinary Two borders, for four years.”
Boris Johnson will on Wednesday unveil a radical new ‘two borders for four years’ Brexit plan which will leave Northern Ireland in a special relationship with Europe until 2025, The Telegraph can reveal.
The plan, which was briefed to major EU capitals on Tuesday, will accept the need for both a regulatory border between the UK and Northern Ireland in the Irish Sea for four years – and customs checks between Ulster and the Republic of Ireland.
The UK’s proposed replacement for the existing Irish backstop is expected to face fierce opposition from EU leaders who will be asked to grant the UK sweeping exemptions from EU customs rules to facilitate a Northern Irish customs border.
The plan effectively means that Northern Ireland will remain in large parts of the EU single market until at least 2025 – but will leave the EU customs union alongside the rest of the UK.
After four years, the Northern Irish Assembly will be free to choose whether to remain aligned to the EU in the future or return to following British rules, which by this time are expected to have diverged from Brussels.
The proposal is likely to meet intense opposition from the Irish government, and other parts of the EU who will claim it risks violating both the Good Friday Agreement and the integrity of the single market.
The Prime Minister is expected to describe the proposed deal as a “fair and reasonable compromise” which has been drawn up after 70 days of negotiations. A formal legal text will be sent to Brussels later today.
In his conference speech, Mr Johnson is expected to say: “‘Voters are desperate for us to focus on their other priorities – what people want, what leavers want, what remainers want, what the whole world wants – is to move on.
“Corbyn wants to turn the whole of 2020 – which should be a great year for this country – into the chaos and cacophony of two more referendums – a second referendum on Scottish independence, even though the people of Scotland were promised that the 2014 vote would be a once in a generation vote, and a second referendum on the EU, even though we were promised that the 2016 vote would be a once in a generation vote.”
He will add: “I am afraid that after three and a half years people are beginning to feel that they are being taken for fools. They are beginning to suspect that there are forces in this country that simply don’t want Brexit delivered at all. And if they turn out to be right in that suspicion then I believe there will be grave consequences for trust in democracy.”
It is understood that Dominic Cummings, the prime ministers’ key strategist, has warned top advisers that the UK was prepared to walk away if the EU did not engage seriously with the offer.
“To be clear we won’t be hanging around waiting for them to negotiate with us,” he told a meeting of senior advisers. “If they reject our offer, that’s it.”
The Prime Minister said the exact plans for customs checks will be subject to “tough” negotiation although Number 10 has played down reports that there would be new centres located a few miles from the Irish border.
The prime minister’s allies claim that the proposal, to be sent to Brussels on Wednesday afternoon, has “evolved significantly” in the past 24 hours and if the EU rejects it, the UK will break off talks and start preparing for a no-deal exit. On Tuesday night, the prospects for a deal suffered a serious blow when British officials blamed Dublin for leaking the plan. “They are trying to create a toxic atmosphere,” said one. Irish officials denied that the leak had originated from Dublin. Britain is now prepared to extend EU regulation to industrial goods in Northern Ireland to ease trade flows across the border with the Republic, on top of Mr Johnson’s existing plan to create a single all-Ireland zone for animal and food health checks.
However, that proposal does nothing to address the crucial issue of customs controls, and Mr Johnson has put himself on a collision course with the EU by insisting that Northern Ireland must leave the bloc’s customs union in any deal.
One EU diplomat close to the negotiations said: “There is a significant gap between what Johnson is saying and what we can accept. But the proposals won’t be shot down in flames. There are 10 days to try to close the gap.”
Will this offer achieve the remarkable result of uniting all parties north and south against it? One the face if it yes – but hold! The Guardian claims he has done a ” secret deal” with the DUP.
Boris Johnson has struck a secret deal with the Democratic Unionist party involving radical proposals for a Belfast-Dublin “bilateral lock” on post-Brexit arrangements on the island of Ireland..Details have emerged of the prime minister’s final Brexit offer that he will lay out on Wednesday, with Northern Ireland staying under EU single market regulations for agri-food and manufactured goods until at least 2025, at which point its assembly in Stormont will decide whether to continue alignment with EU or UK standards..
The broadcaster RTÉ quoted an Irish government source saying Johnson’s deal, as reported on Tuesday evening, would not be acceptable to Dublin.
However, DUP sources have confirmed that the party is largely “content” with the proposals, which are believed to still include a lot of elements the backstop – a major concession for the party.
One central element of the proposals is expected to be a “Stormont lock,” giving local parties a say on any future proposals to keep the region aligned to EU rules and maintain an invisible border with the Republic of Ireland if Britain decided to diverge from European standards on goods and food.
Also crucial is the reestablishment of a newly empowered British-Irish ministerial council which was set up under the Belfast/Good Friday agreement but has not sat for three years. The restored council would give representatives from Stormont and the Irish parliament oversight on the future regulatory regime on the island of Ireland.
The UK’s insistence that Northern Ireland will not stay in the EU’s customs territory, and that extra customs checks and controls would be required on the island of Ireland, is another major red line crossed for Dublin.
One source said the British-Irish council would be a “big part of moving along” the part of the backstop that was unattractive to the DUP – a regulatory barrier down the Irish Sea. It also would be a “double lock” on any move by Northern Ireland to diverge from EU rules applying in the republic.
“We need a mechanism so that the future relationship is not just left to London and Brussels,” said one insider. “A north-south ministerial council allows us to work things out between us.”
The proposals “deal with a lot of the issues the backstop was designed to deal with,” said a source close to the secret talks. “Everyone wants a deal. The DUP wants a deal, Dublin wants a deal, we want a deal. We are hopeful. It doesn’t mean we have the cake, but we are hoping we have the ingredients for one.”
However, the proposals risk a legal challenge in Ireland as the Withdrawal Act 2019 bars any new infrastructure including customs checks on the border that did not exist before Brexit.
Despite the obvious problems, the DUP’s acceptance of what is in effect a time limited backstop would greatly strengthen Boris Johnson’s hand in Parliament. He will be hoping it boosts his chances of acceptance in the Commons and Conservative prospects in the expected general election, even if the EU rejects it.
The proposal of managing a new alignment for Northern Ireland through the north-south ministerial council would give Dublin at least pause for thought, despite their anathema on the border proposals . It also raises the stakes for the return of the Assembly. If the two governments could only come to some agreement on Brexit they could exert united pressure on the parties to return. But this begs the huge question of whether the UK and the EU can close the gap over customs. But if this plan plays better in Westminster than in the EU, Boris Johnson will not be wholly displeased.
By the way this is my swansong on Slugger for a months of so. I’m off to visit family in New Zealand. The climax of the crisis ( this one anyway) – will have to happen without me.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
Discover more from Slugger O'Toole
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
